It has been quite a while since I picked up the ultimate pen and while I still follow the game, real life has taken my focus. Since my last post I have finished my PhD, gotten engaged, and started my new career as a professional medical writer. However, of all the topics that have sparked even the slightest inspiration over the last 8 months or so, none has left the impact of NexGen.
Logistics
Lets start with praise. Unlike many ultimate ventures out there, NexGen is a fantastic product from both a macro and a micro perspective. At the 'big picture' level you have a spectacular platform to showcase some of the best up and coming talent in the sport. I do not know how this is being funded, but it rivals Dartmouth's Big Green Bus of the mid 2000s as far as ideas go and blows it out of the water from a competitive standpoint. The scheduling alone is a modern miracle and I think it is fairly safe to say that aside from WUGC 2012 chatter, NexGen will gobble up considerable attention this summer.
From a mico scale perspective, the execution of NexGen is pretty solid. Their website is a bit junky with drop downs that are blocked becuase of clutter, but the sheer definition of their pictures and interviews is unlike anything we have seen before. Much like the ESPN feel of college nationals highlights this past May, the HD-esk appearance of NexGen is a major leap forward in the marketability of ultimate. Pending SNAFU's with their execution (and considering that this is ultimate, nothing is garunteed), I think this experiment will compete with MLU, C1, ECU, Ultimate Peace etc.. as far as hype is concerned and considering the fact that success is solely expected within 2011 (as opposed to indefinitely), it will leave an exceedingly postive impression for future players/ultimate enthusiasts to emulate.
Competition
I don't know who or how this schedule was crafted, but it is incredible. It is not the first time we have seen a team showcase itself against the best teams in North America (Team USA 2005 and 2009, Team Australia 2008, etc..), but it is certainly the best thus far. Taken at a cursory glance, NexGen is scheduled to play Furious, Sockeye, Rhino and Revolver, a very respectable lineup, but NW heavy. However, if you open their full schedule, you'll see that they are playing just about everyone. Bravo, Chain, Ironside, GOAT, Truck Stop, Ring, not bad. I wish Doublewide and PoNY were on this list ahead of Oakland and either Madison/SubZero, but that is being nit picky at best. I think I speak for the bulk of the ultimate community when I say that I would gladly buy tickets to see one of these games if any were near New Haven, CT.
Now the bad news. As excited as I am to see this product come to fruition, I think the youngsters are going to get smoked. Given their youth and lack of experience as a unit, I think elite club level talent will tear them apart. It also doesn't help that their first game is up against one of the most experienced teams in the world, Furious George. On Friday, these kids are going to roll into UBC and faceoff against players that were in their place 5-6 years ago. Oscar, Morgan, Alex, Menzies, Gabe...these were the college superstars making club noise when NexGen was in middle school and they've already got a few rings and medals on their shelves. You have solid experience in guys like Stubbs, Kapinos, Arenson, and Murray, but it is peanuts relative to their competition, which raises some concerns about the roster in general.
Given my experience in actually putting together an ultimate product, I am aware of how hard it is to get people to sign on the dotted line, but I have to draw some attention to those not on this roster. First and foremost, I think Grant Lindsley, Christian Foster, and Hylke Sneider should all be on this list. I have no idea if they were asked and/or turned it down, but I think all three bring useful elements to the roster and could be invaluable to NexGen success.
Further, I am surprised that there is no Florida representation. Colorado, CUT and Wisconsin all have included personel and even more could be put forth (see above). Neverthless, their is one missing competitive piece and it deserves to be included. Cole Sullivan is a stud and just as 'Next Generation' as any of these other players. I would even argue that Brodie Smith and/or Chris Gibson should be on the roster given their relative youth and play making ability. Perhaps all were asked and each one turned NexGen down, but regardless, a +6-foot cocky superstar will be necessary against the likes of Morgan, Nord, Beau, Mac, Dylan, Jolian, Hassell, etc.
Closing Thoughts
Most folks know that I am a Furious homer, so favoring them comes as no surprise. Considering that Furious is well on their way to Condor/Ring status, I would not be surprised if NexGen made it interesting. However, FG is just the tip of the iceberg. Sockeye is absolutely vicious and will eat these kids alive. Take a look at what they have done to the Buzz Bullets in big games and they are 10x more experienced.
And it only gets worse. Revolver could switch their O-/D-line sets and cruise. Bravo, Chain, and GOAT would love to show that they are still relevant. Maybe NexGen gets past a crumbling Ironside, but by that point most of their best games will be behind them. I want to see these kids shine on the big stage, but I fear their lack of chemistry will turn into break after break for these cold blooded veterans.
Long story short, I'm pumped to see how this tour goes down, but my money is on CurrentGen.
Just my thoughts.
Match Diesel, PhD
4 comments:
Great post - I too am really interested to see how this goes!
I'm curious to see how "hard" or "smart" the club teams will play. Will they be helping to add some flash and put up some ill-advised hucks for the spectacle? Will they be in the mindset of "this is for promoting the sport to the kids, let's make sure they enjoy watching this", or will they actually try to win the game? The whole point of NexGen is to promote the sport to new players, so obviously they'll try to make it exciting. But the question is whether they will rely on the intense competitive gameplay to provide the excitement or use the flashier aspects of the sport.
That is a good comment and one I have considered myself.
One could speculate that teams would be briefed ahead of time with the request to keep games close. This could be accomplished with open rotations and/or a looser game strategy (ie hucks and no zone). Ideally, this would give paying fans a good show and one worth the $5 ticket.
However, in fairness to fans, I would not open the lines to keep things interesting. I went to a baseball game once the day after my team was eliminated from the playoffs and I was pissed when no one decent played.
In addition, I do not see any elite programs going down easy. When push comes to shove, they will want to be on the winning side and so will NexGen. That being said, I see firt halves being spirited and second halves more contentious. Either way, it should make for a good show.
My only advice for settling this (becuase scores can be deceptive) is to keep track of 1-possession scores and/or turnovers. I suspect NexGen will have fewer of the former and more of the later (relative to their opppnent). However, if the numbers are close, one could argue that games were played with crowd pleasing motives.
All good stuff. I wish I could be there to see some of these games.
I think you're right about halves being different in intensity and whatnot. I think it will be similar to NBA All Star games: 1st half is all dunks and plays that the fans want to see (Shaq as point guard, for example). Then, in the 2nd half, it's play to win. That's where the club teams will win out. I can also see some of the club teams playing more seriously than NexGen right out of the gate.
I don't think NexGen can beat Furious, Sockeye, Revolver, or any team that makes nationals consistently, or at all. If NexGen beats anyone, it's Rhino. I love Rhino, but they're young as well and weren't all players of NexGen caliber in college. NexGen might even be able to take down Sub Zero. But at least Rhino and Sub Zero have played together for a while.
If they wanted the games to be close (or have the NexGen players win), they should play mixed, with both top Open and Women's players on the NexGen team. They could play against the country's top mixed teams, or co-ed teams thrown together with high-caliber players from good ultimate hubs (Bay Area, Seattle, Vancouver, Boston, etc.), but overall lower-than-open-division-nationals-caliber teams. This would also reach out to future female players. But that's just my view. I am a sucker for elite men and women teaming up (I'm super excited for this Blackbird team).
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