2007 UPA Club Nationals Predictions

Now that the seeds and pools are set I thought I would give my thoughts on what I think is gonna go down this weekend in sarasota.

Pool A
Here you have the 1,8,9, and 16 seeds. I think Jam will take this pool nicely. they will have their first game against Ring, which I think will be their toughest. I think Ring's fire and intensity will be nice in the first half but Jam is too deep and will take the game in the ball park of 15-11. Next Jam will face Van Buren Boys in an expected blowout 15-6. The score might be closer because Jam might take it easy in the 2nd half but they will be control for the whole game. Goat will play VBB first and take that game. Goat is a good, tall team that I think will work out well for them. The A2-A3 (GOAT vs Ring) will be the game of pool play. You will have Ring who has been here before and GOAT, a squad that has yet to win a big game in a series tourney. I think Ring will take them out in a potential double game point game. Wish I could be there. In the last games of pool play Jam should take Goat out easily after a tough game against Ring (even if Goat wins, they will be wayyy gased to beat the 1 seed) and a fired up Ring will take out the 16th seed.
Jam 1, Ring 2, GOAT 3, VBB 4

Pool B
Sockeye will take this pool. They will have tough games against a smart boston team and rhino, who they play a lot, but they should take both. They should then take down Pike relatively easily. Boston is the question mark. I am going to try and make some friends of enemies and say they take down Pike AND Rhino. Boston/Rhino willl be a good game but I think Boston's experience will be the X factor. The athleticism and talent of both teams should be around the same (good college kids on both squads with big time college experience and SOME good club experience). I think Forch will have a great game and that will get the rest of the team up. Dusty and Goldstein will run great offensive units but I think the unknowns on boston will be more confident that Rhino's and Boston will win a close one. Despite the loss, Rhino will come out and beat Pike and Sockeye will take out a tired Boston.
Sockeye 1, Boston 2, Rhino 3, VBB 4

Pool C
I for one don't like seeing this pool. I really wish Condors and Bravo were not playing eachother on the first day. With a region like the southwest and with a pool of teams that are so close in ability, pitting these two regional rivals against eahother really sucks. They might get a chance to play against eachother in power pools or bracket play anyway, but on thursday? I don't like that. I am sure the Condors are cool with it because you can't seed them higher and if you put them as the 7 seed they would have to play Sockeye and I think they would rather play Bravo than Sockeye. Anyway, Bravo is ready (at least for pool play) and sweeps easy. Condors will FINALLY do well in pool play at nationals after a performance hiatus and take out DW and Machine. Condors/DW will be a great game but the experience of the condors will work out well for them and the lack of experience for DW will work against them, I mean Labor Day was their toughest tourney. Machine has some good players but they will have a tough time lining up against any of these squads.
Bravo 1, Condors 2, DW 3, Machine 4

Pool D
Furious doesn't lose in pool play and I don't seem them losing to anyone. They should be able to take out a college player heavy 2 seed in Sub-Zero and no one else in the pool should pose a problem. I find this pool interesting because if I were to look at this pool after last year's nationals results, I would be shocked. Chain the 4 seed?!?! They were in semis last year and who is Truck Stop? I think Sub-Zero has played good disc this year but the wind in Florida will hurt them. Heijman, Jack, Muffin, Shane, Miller and the rest of the Wisco guys are good but they are college kids. Their grip, rip, and layout D style won't hack it at club nationals and Furious will make an example of them. I think they will have the ability to take out Chain once again considering Chain's disappointing season (considering their finish last year and Zipp as a pick up). The game to watch in this pool though will be Chain against Truck Stop. By far the only C3/C4 game worth watching. You have a DC team with a higher seed than a semis team last year. I like chain in this game. Both teams will be winless going into this game and this matchup will be for pride and I think chain will take out Truck Stop. Rob you better get footage of this and the GOAT/Ring game.
Furious 1, Subzero 2, Chain 3, Truck Stop 4

Now for power pools. With the results I have suggested, the power pools will be:
Pool E Jam (1-0), Bravo (1-0), Condos (0-1), Ring (0-1)
I think that Jam/Condors and Bravo/Ring will go as expected. Jam has a bunch of former Condors, oddly enough, and I think Namkung and the gang will have the boys from Frisco prepared against Santa Barbara. Bravo is fast and talented and they should take Ring down as they did at ECC. The Jam vs Bravo game will good though. I think Bravo will win this. I think that power pool play at nationals this year will be similar to the way it was in 2005. You will see the top seeds lose and then come back and win in bracket play. I think a young Bravo will be ready and anxious to take out Jam and be fired up lead by richter. I think the wind in Sarasota will hurt Jam because they rely on Gabe's breaks and Bart's upside down throws a bit too much and their still forming team will have trouble clicking on offense with tough Bravo defenders. As far as Condors and Ring, I think the Condors are ready to start winning at nationals and can take out Ring. This puts Ring in the quarters play in.

Pool F Sockeye (1-0), Furious (1-0), Subzero (0-1), Boston (0-1)
I think Furious has Boston's number given their level of experience and superior talent. I think subzero's best can match Sockeye's best athletically, but Sockeye is wayyy to deep to lose to a bunch of college kids and I think Tim Gehret will get the better of the Hodags once again. As far as Furious/Sockeye go, I think this will be just like Regionals. I think Furious will take out Sockeye, but this will not be the last we'll hear of sockeye. Like in 2005 when Sockeye beat Furious in power pools but lost in the finals, I think Furious will try and prove that their offense is well established/prepared (unlike last year when they had no challenge until the finals) and come out fired up against Sockeye in power pools. Sockeye will try and play the mind game with Furious, one that the monkeys have won historically over the years, and set Furious up for a fall. I think Boston vs Subzero will be the perfect Experience vs Talent game. Forch will lead a verteran squad against Heijman's stellar athletes. Boston will not screw up though. Good weather would favor SZ, but the wind usually builds at nationals and Friday will not be kind to Subzero and Boston's patient game will break subzero regularly and sub zero will have to play in the quarters play in.

Pool G Goat, DW, Machine, VBB
I think GOAT will try and show that they belong in sarasota after a tough showing in pool play. I see them taking out VBB easily and the game against DW should be good. GOAT is a collection of tall burly Canadians and I think DW is more of the same with corn fed boys from Texas. I think it will be a battle between Hassell and Tank, one that I think Hassell will win putting GOAT in the play in game. Machine will take out their regional rivals in a closer game than their 11-4 one at 3 weeks ago. This will put GOAT in the quarters play in game.

Pool H Rhino, Truck Stop, Chain, Pike
I think Rhino will want some Ws after going 1-2 in pool play. This team made quaters last year and I think they will really fight to do that again. I think the Rhino/Chain game will be close because Chain will be amped after breaking seed in pool play but Rhino has a better team with talent distributed among more players. Chain's all stars will be good but their 4-7 players won't be able to keep a lid on Rhino's cagey offense and Rhino should be able to get the breaks they need to win. I think Pike's experience will help them against Truck Stop. Rhino should not have trouble with Truck Stop after a loss to Pike and Rhino will make the play in game. Chain and Pike will be a good game, these two were top 8 at national just a few years ago and I think Chain will chalk up another good win.

Quarters play in games
SubZero vs GOAT
Again, like the SubZero vs Boston game, this will be experience vs youth. I think GOAT is a really good team and will repeat their Chicago Heavyweights result over Subzero. I think Subzero will come out and take half but GOAT will creep up on them and take advantage of miscues from the huck happy muffin. I think SZ will also find themselves in a position where their intensity and layouts won't get them a win. Hopefully they will be patient, because GOAT's lessons at regionals will teach them to take advantage of mistakes and avoid them themselves, but I don't see it happening.

Rhino vs Ring
This is a game I am having a tough time with. Power Pool teams don't usually lose in play in games and if I picked GOAT to win, how can Rhino win as well? I think Ring will get into power pools based on their lucky seed (9) which allows them to play the 16 seed and an less experiesnced GOAT earning them the wins to play in power pools. Rhino on the other hand is only 1 seed below (10) and will have had to beat Chain, Pike, and Truck Stop to get this far and will have had some lessons learned against Boston. Plus Rhino can win when they need to, ahem, Revolver, plus I am sure they don't want to be the only NW team to get left out of quarters. I think the weather and the exhaustion factor will help Ring considering they are really experienced and will be able to play well tired, but if Rhino can keep a large rotation, they should be able to make it to quarters.

Backet Play
If things like I have laid out precipitate the quarters matchups will be as follows:

Bravo vs Goat - Good luck GOAT, you got his far but Bravo is good and should win easily

Sockeye vs Condors - The new heros will take out the old legends. Condors will make an honorable exit though with a nationals tournament they can be proud of

Furious vs Rhino - A NW regional rematch, but Furious seems to do well late in the year so I think they'll will be able to take out a battered Rhino team.

Jam vs Boston - I think Jam will assert their depth here. Boston is a good team but their no names can't compete with the loaded roster that Jam has. I think the Damien Scott vs Forch matchup will be nice and these two veteran teams will make up the best quarters game. I don't see Jam losing though

Semis
Bravo vs Sockeye
Last year these two teams met eachother and played a great 15-13 battle. I think Sockeye this year is not as dominant as they were last year and I think Bravo is only getting better. However, with that said, I think Sockeye will still win. Like a better version of SubZero, Bravo is still led by a young group of players. I think Richter is playing his best disc (and after watching some ECC footage, I am remembering why he won the callahan depsite his 2005 performance hiatus) and will lead an intense Bravo team into battle. However, Richter, Chicken, Jolian, Beau, Rabbit, Valdavia, Tripoli, these guys have played in maybe 4-5 club series' each. They will have to go against Crafts, Cram, CK, Moses, Will Henry, etc... who are playing in their 8-10th. With that in mind, I think Sockeye will/should play a more conservative game than usual to ensure that they don't give up stupid breaks. Bravo will play intense but their talent and experience are not held by the same population of players and I think they will have a tough time playing their best disc against their toughest opponent. Plus this is nationals, Sockeye is kinda good at this tourney.

Furious vs Jam
This is a tough game to call. A Jam/FG semis game is so historic. In 2004 they met in semis and Jam took out an over peaked Furious. Furious for the most part, has not changed in the last 3 years, plus Mike Grant's health is an issue. Being one of the most consistent yet dominating players in ultimate, if he isn't at his best, Furious will struggle. However, Furious is also crisp at every level, their 5-7 players are all very good and can match Jam's firepower. Jam is also a team known for choking and considering that they have gotten this far this year after not making nationals last year, they are on borrowed time. This game could easily go either way pending weather, injuries and god knows what else. I am hoping for wind, which will favor Furious, so that Gabe's breaks and Bart's scoobers will be limited. However, Damien leads a good team and the likes of Cissna, Namkung, Idris, and Steets know how to ball. I think Furious is a clutch team however. Last year they played a close final to Sockeye and got unlucky with a greatest and Skippy's hammer catch. Plus Furious seems to improve at every stage of the series and plays their best at nationals. I like a 3-peat for a the finals and I think Furious will take down Jam.

The Finals:
Sockeye vs Furios
So cliche I know, but if I pick every game on a game to game basis, this is where I end up. Here, you will have 2 teams that have already played eachother at nationals, with Furious taking down Sockeye. I don't see it happening again. Sockeye is just too good when they need to be. They play 2 real tournaments a year, ECC and Nationals. They may have lost in pool play to Boston at ECC, but they came back and won the tourney AGAIN. Furious beat Sockeye at regionals but I think Sockeye is the better team. Their youth, talent, and experience is unparalleled and I don't think they will lose when the stakes are this high. However, i will say that the only team that can take down Sockeye is Furious. Because these two teams play eachother so much, they go back and forth, not unlike the Yankees and the Red Sox. I would love to see my boys get another championship but I want to be objective. Sockeye is the best team in the world and I think will win another national title.

The Co-ed, womens, and masters tournaments should all be very good as well. Shazaam seems to be the team to beat and could roll through the tourney unlike any team I have ever seen. Hopefully women's won't go as predicted as last year. As far as masters goes, I think Parinella and Big Ego are making master's nationals something to watch, in addition to that double game point callahan last year. I am hoping for a Big Ego vs Above and Beyond final, a Boston/NYNY rematch for the ages). I wish I could be there.

my thoughts

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