This morning I woke up after a little family rager at my brother's place and while watching some Lost (season 2) and drinking my coffee, he told me that the Celtics had lost again to the Warriors. This immediately reminded me of a post I put up earlier this year about how the Rockets had their streak ended and I compared it to how teams could potentially beat Wisconsin.
Anyway, my post was before Centex so I didn't have any idea they would lose to Michigan and then Florida and Pitt but in seeing that go down and seeing the Celtics lose to the Lakers and now the Warriors, I couldn't help but draw some parallels.
First off, I've said this before and I'll say it again, of all the major sports, I think Ultimate is the most like Basketball. Getting breaks and establishing offensive consistency are analogous as are hucks and three point shooting.
But the parallel I wanted to bring up is the emotional status of players. I talk a lot about confidence but it is really important in our game because confidence allows you to execute under pressure. If Peyton throws 2 TD's or Manny hits 40% its amazing, but in Basketball you've gotta score 40-50 times a game and in Ultimate you've gotta complete >90% of your passes or you get your ass kicked. With that in mind, the emotion that runs rampant in players can really be an asset/problem when trying to execute an offense. In my opinion, the Celtics had no chance Christmas Day. The Lakers wanted that game a TON and they played with intensity that Boston could not match. Just like Michigan at Centex, the Lakers were ready, confident and unafraid. They took it to the Celtics, the way Magnum beat the Hodags and ended the streak.
To the Hodags shagrin, they fell to Florida and then Pitt and ended up going 4-3 at Centex, LOSERS...jk. In my opinion, I think they had their cages rattled a little bit and the confidence they relied on was not what it could have been. I think after a big loss to the Lakers, Boston had the same sort of problem. The Lakers knocked them down a peg and their offensive execution was not what it could have been in the second half. Maybe they came out firing and let up late in the game, maybe Ray Allen was just off, who knows? I like that Doc Rivers recognized that a 39% first half shooting percentage from the Warriors was just a number and if they got hot, they'd stay that way.
In any event, this had me thinking about a few things. For starters, like Basketball, I think Ultimate needs to be played in a game of series' in the playoffs. There is so much pressure to execute in this game as opposed to just preventing your opponent from executing (Football) and things only get worse in April/May. You have to score so many times and like Basketball and Tennis and Golf, it is hard to be great all the time. Everyone has off days and the emotional state of players/teams can really be a problem. With that in mind, I think giving teams multiple chances to prove their worth would be nice. I think Wisconsin still wins Nationals against Florida if they go best of 3, games to 7 or whatever, but I think we can all think of games where a DGP finish ended up with the "better" team not winning. I'm sure folks have their issues with this, but I think a single game to 15 is a flaw in Ultimate game theory because it neglects the huge impact of emotion with regard to offensive execution. If I were running things, we'd go with Wild Wood rules, games to 5, best 2 out of 3.
Secondly, it's December and like Centex, the #1 team may have lost, but it is all for the best. Wisconsin needed their emotional state challenged and that is exactly what the Celtics got last night. They needed to be knocked down a few pegs if only to allow themselves to pick up the momentum they'll need to dominate as they did a year ago. I think they are in line for another title because another year of Garnett/Pierce/Allen/Rondo, not to mention their stellar D, will only yield better results. Plus I think the Lakers and the Cavs lack the style points that teams like the Spurs have had and the Celtics have now. Kobe is doing a great job and Pau Gasol is developing as a scoring threat, but I think Boston's confidence in execution is still much better across the board. Likewise with Lebron in Clevland, he's amazing but in a 7 game series, he'll have an off night and then what?
In addition, like Ultimate, I think sports writers effect the game somewhat in that people tend to get their emotions caught up with expectations. Everyone wants to see another 72-10 season like the Bulls in 95-96 but that just isn't realistic and more importantly, it is not what these players are paid to do. They are paid to win Championships and while winning ~88% of your games helps, it isn't the overall goal.
With that in mind, I think the Celtics are just fine and will have their focus returned in the next few games, much like Wisconsin after Centex. Maybe these games came a bit early in the year because June is a long ways off, but you never know. I hope to go to the Celtics/Lakers game on February 5th, and we'll see if they are as good as last year.
On a side note, I took a look at Hector's post about Chicken. It's nice to see a fellow man crusher at work because I've got my fair share. I think it is funny that his departure from Colorado is coupled with his arrival in my hood. I look forward to some high intensity winter league with him in a few weeks. I can definitely attest to Chicken's fashion sense because he is undoubtedly the most well dressed cat at the Med School, but he has his swagger and that's all that matters. I think his quest to be different is not unlike my own and hopefully he gets as much out of the Y-bomb experience as I have.
Have a fun and safe New Years.
just my thoughts
match diesel
3 comments:
Interesting discussion... what I'd like to see before making any comments though is whether anyone has done statistical investigation of parity in Ultimate vs other sports. E.g. how often there is an 'upset' over a higher ranked team.
My initial guess is that Ultimate has fewer upsets than Hockey/Basketball /Baseball (5/7 game series) but more than Football (single game). However the logistics of multi-game series is problematic. They would probably need to be shorter to work. E.g. a best of 3 with games to 9. Would that be better than a single game to 15? Why or why not?
Good topic. I've often thought that Ultimate is like basketball (and unlike baseball or football for example) in that, in the playoffs, meaningful upsets are are rarer than, say, successful invasions of Afghanistan. And that's if a game like Jam over Bravo can be considered an upset in the first place. Lots of reasons for this, some of which you touched on, but it general, teams that don't have a lot of late round long term and recent playoff experience almost by definition don't win (in most cases don't even really have a realistic chance to) it all.
Manny hits .400 not 40%
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