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Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Some Actual Ultimate Discussion

I can't help it, I gotta talk some college disc. Here are some region to region discussions.

Northwest
Holy Cal! Wow, I suppose my Cal writeup came a year early. They are red hot right now with back to back tournament wins at Santa Barbara and Pres Day. I don't know what happened against Black Tide at Santa Barbara but their encore performance at Pres Day is very impressive. Way to go Choon. They came out this hot a few years back when they made Finals in '04 and I think they are #1 in the Northwest right now.

Outside Cal, Orgeon seems to be the other major NW contender. Their performance at TiV was very impressive but great Vegas performances have a tendency to matter a lot more in February than they do in May. I think Oregon is tired of being out of the Nationals discussion and I think Dusty is ready to end his career with Ego with a trip back to Columbus. Hopefully they get a shot against Cal at Stanford or Centex.

Stanford, eshk, these guys have been quite the wild card the last year or so. This year they turned a few heads by making the trek to Vegas and Ryan Thompson told me they did so because they wanted another tournament under their belt. Given the conditions and the fact that this was their first non-Kaimana February tournament since I've been paying attention, I'm not surprised they got worked. They did make Finals in Goleta, big surprise, and in doing so, proved that they've got the chops to compete in the Northwest, but also that Cal is legit in '09. They always seem to play well at home regardless of previous tournament performances, but then again Stanford Invite has 48 teams this year, so yeah, no idea whats gonna happen.

Outside these three, I've got nothing. LPC seems to make some noise at every tournament save Regionals, so I'm not surprised they've got a few big W's. UBC had a decent Vegas but they always seem to suck when the weather warms up. Hopefully they ditch the shants this year. Santa Cruz...I've gotta see it to believe it. Do something interesting at Stanford or you are going to be left out of any major Nationals discussion this year. More of the same with Davis. Decent SBI, decent Vegas, but not too many great wins to boast. I hope they get a chance to secure a few big wins at Stanford and potentially confirm who's who in the NW. Lastly, Washington... had Wisconsin played a little better, that W might have meant more, but oh well, the Sundogers, like everyone else, will have their chance to catch malaria, I mean earn W's, in Bum F$%@, Egypt next month.

Southwest
Big surprise, Colorado is good. Mac Taylor, Brian "Kibbles" Clarkson, Ted Phillips, Martin "Duke" Freeman, and Hylke Snieder are all ballers and will be the veterans that continue to dominate the SW region. They are going back to Stanford, which I like, but given the fact that the tourney is 48 teams this year, I have no idea what to expect. Most of the best teams will be in attendance, but predicting mactchups is impossible and given the question marks associated with the Hodags, who knows who will give Colorado a challenge? Carleton? Florida? Georgia? Regardless, I can't imagine anything less than another Regional title and trip to semis or better.

The rest of the Southwest is pretty tight with UCSB looking ok, when they actually compete as UCSB. Personally, I think outside the Fall, the whole UCSB-X thing is pretty weak, especially if their isn't a UCSB-Y. They handed Cal their only loss of the year which is commendable and they were one of the few SW teams to do well in Vegas. I'm getting tired of saying this, but Stanford will be a toss up, so I'm waiting until after Centex to make any sense of these gargantuan tournaments.

My squiddies are actually looking pretty stellar thus far, don't screw it up! Big wins over Claremot (loved that score) and Arizona, so they are no longer the pee-ons they have been the last 2 years. They got a big confidence win over UCLA but have yet to play SDSU so I think they still have a chance to slip. They also lost their only game against Black Tide this year but so far they are 9-0 in power/pool play so that's pretty sweet. Probably came out flat Sunday morning at SBI, so here's hoping they keep the Saturday night shenanigans to a minimum in the future. Regardless, with 3 bids out of the SW a return to Nationals for the first time since 2006 is definitely in the cards, but I'm sure they'd like to stick it to Tide in the Series and maybe even get a shot at Mamabird at some point this year.

Arizona, yikes, I was afraid they'd have some trouble without some of their 5th years. I don't think Austin Gregersen is on the team this year leaving just Erik Gafni as their primary threat and despite his talent (and enthusiasm) I think Sunburn's in for some trouble. They'll have their chances to rebound at Stanford and Centex, but I'm guessing Stanford will be another shit show and Centex will be brutal to a team that has lost a lot of it's depth.

South
Yeah, I'm still waiting for Texas to make an appearance. They'll be at Mardi Gras and Stanford so check back in a few weeks. North Texas, Texas State, still waiting for some clarity, sorry.

Central
Wow, Wisconsin feeling the fear a little bit eh? I had a feeling the 'Dags were in for some L's and now I'm waiting to see what they do in the face of some adversity. Animal and Foster are a great set of captains and I'm sure having Gaynor back for another year will help them remain confident. However, guys like Feldman and Geppert have never been in this situation with Wisconsin and a lot of people are interested to see how they handle it. I don't think Vegas is as indicative as some would like, because I get the feeling they opened their bench up in the face of some uber bad weather, but if they suck again at Stanford, the fear they once instilled in their opponents will be long gone.

Alright Carleton, way to not screw up my predictions. With only one loss against Colorado and the only team to beat Florida at Vegas, CUT is looking like this could be their year. They'll be another in the 8-10 bad asses at Stanford trying to solidify some sort of hierarchy and considering the fact that CUT usually peaks late, I'm sure we haven't seen the best the Northfield flatballers have to offer. Given the fact that they were ehh at Centex last year but still made Semis in Boulder, I'm not sure we'll know just how good CUT is until they potentially take the region back in May.

Considering the fact that the CN gets 20% of the teams at Nationals this year, the door is really wide open for a lot of teams. I was stoked to see Iowa take Warm Up and given last year's Universe finish against Wisconsin in Semis at Regionals, I will be paying close attention to IHUC.

Minnesota seems to be the only other team to jump out at me from the Central Region. They had a decent year last year with a great Centex, but so far they haven't done much. Hopefully they get a chance against Wisconsin at Mardi Gras and given the fact that the Hodags usually own Baton Rouge, a win over baby blue could be huge. Likewise, Mardi Gras will be Wisco's chance to get their demons sorted out before the wolves come-a-callin at Stanford.

Great Lakes
This region is going to be exciting. I've been a big Magnum fan since 2005 and with Will Neff as my pick for Callahan, UM will be a team to watch this spring. However, Notre Dame is hands down the team to beat in the Great Lakes. They had a great Fall and made the Finals at Queen's City Tune Up, while Magnum lost in quarters after taking their pool. Both Papal Rage (sort of) and Magnum will be in Louisiana this weekend so we'll have an idea of who's who in a week or so. Notre Dame doesn't have the rep to get into Centex or Stanford just yet, so they'll have to hope for some great games at Huck Finn, which is surprisingly loaded this year with Colorado, Wisconsin, Georgia and Michigan all coming out of the wood work. I suppose Fools Fest in Kansas wasn't good enough.

Anyway, I think Michigan has got the schedule to really test their squad and given their late-ish peak last year, it might be just the gauntlet they need to prepare for Regionals. Likewise, I think Notre Dame has a rough road ahead of them because they've got all season to lose their steam and they'll need to play as well in the Series as they are now if they want a crack at Columbus. Meanwhile, Ohio State is still very much a contender and after their experience at Nationals at home in 2007, I'm sure they are fired up for another shot at being the home town heroes in May. Bottom line, Great Lakes Regionals is gonna be sweeeeet.

Atlantic Coast
God damn it Florida, you were supposed to suck this year. What am I supposed to do with a 15-13 loss to Georgia but a tournament win at Vegas? I get the feeling like Stanford at Stanford, Florida just doesn't lose in Vegas. They've won the tourney 3 of the 4 years it has been in existence so who knows? I do know that Brodie seems to think that '09 is the new '06 which could mean another Stanford title, and given the fact it's not in Palo Alto this year (like 2006), he could have his senior year end up like freahman year. Anyway, I was very impressed with the way they finished out Vegas and hopefully we see another game against CUT at Stanford or Centex to see who's actually better. I'm not sure what kind of rotation they are using now that Cycle, Windham, and Gibson are gone, but success early is something Florida seems to be good at the last few years. Stanford Invite probably won't give us the answers we want, unless they win it all, so we'll have to wait until after Centex to see if they are title bound once again.

Alright JoJah!! My Athens boys are kicking ass this year and I love it. Maybe they came out flat against Iowa in the Warm Up Finals, but a split squad Mudbowl win and a dominating performance at QCTU is just what the doctor ordered. They took out Florida in their only meeting this year, which is actually a big deal because last year Florida had their foot on Georgia's throat wire to wire. I don't like that they aren't going to Centex (at least according to the score reporter), but considering the fact that they are on the Huck Finn badwagon, I'm sure we'll get an idea of whether or not Georgia is ready to pull a 2005 move and take back the AC by April. Regardless, I'm hoping for a Colorado/Georgia game in bracket play at some point (Stanford or Huck Finn) because fireworks always seem to fly between gold and red.

As for Virginia and Tennessee, ask me after Centex. Viriginia got a bid to the battle in Austin and Tennessee has a guarunteed game against Wisconsin in Baton Rouge, so the AC could have a few new faces this year. However, I still have no idea what to make of the NC crowd, and given the fact that things were fairly ambiguous up until Carolina Sectionals last year, I have no idea what to expect from NC State, UNC-Wilmington and UNC.

Metro East
Cornell is looking good early this year, especially with a close game against a juggernaut like Colorado. Pitt got themselves a few quality wins in Vegas as well with W's over Stanford and Santa Barbara. Delaware had a rough weekend in North Carolina and Maryland could be a contender, despite coming and going historically. However, despite all of this, things are still wayyy to early to tell in a region as volatile as the Metro East.

Huck of the Irish will be the first real opportunity we'll have to see most of the ME duke it out (save Pitt) and my guess is that Delaware will squeeze in between some of these teams, if not take them all by storm. Because the Centex team list isn't complete yet, I'm not certain which of these squads will be in Austin but I'm guessing most. Hopefully they all show because this region is usually quite the spectacle and I'd love more fuel for the Regional Prediction fire.

North East
Like the Metro East, much of the North East still has yet to come out of hibernation. Harvard had a great Vegas once again and Middlebury went 9-2 which is impressive but they never seem to make any noise when it matters. Tufts didn't do as well in the desert as they did a year ago but I'm sure A-Hole has got them focused for whatever tournaments they decide to go to. I like that Dartmouth is going down to Mardi Gras which should be all the competition they need to get the dust off the cleats. Perhaps they will do as well as Brown did at Warm Up and give some non-Regional teams a scare. My dark horse for the region is UConn because they have really come around as a program and even won a Fall Tournament (Coffee Cup). They have never made Regionals but this year could be one for the books. I'm sure Brown is unafraid though, considering the fact that they've taken the South NE Section every year since the beginning of time, but who knows? Everybody loves an upset.

Closing Thoughts
The main thing on my mind after looking at all this is that I really hope tournaments don't all become 50-80 teams. I mean having Vegas as the one early season tournament with a million teams is fine, but 48 at Stanford and Centex?! Not sure how I feel about this. As a NUMP voter, it gets hard to make sense out of a bunch of 9-6 scores and what not. It seems like 5-6 years ago players wanted to face off against teams across the country before Nationals but I wonder if it is beginning to be too much of a good thing. I like the 16-24 team tournament format with 3-5 pool play games, pre/quarters, semis, finals. When the bracket takes 30 minutes to even begin to understand, I lose interest quickly.

There was beauty in the distilled talent at Stanford and Centex because teams that were "in" felt a sense of pride and teams on the outside had a reason to play their hearts out in January. You know, the qualifier days? In addition, with the best teams heading off to their own special tournies, other events such as Southerns, Terminus, and Ultimax had their own 20-40 team showdowns and it was fun for all. Now with 48 teams at Stanford and Centex, I wonder if something is lost. Oh well, the new Stanford and Centex haven't even happened yet and maybe at the end of March I will be singing a different tune. Best of luck to all the teams and NO ONE GET HURT!!

just my thoughts

match diesel

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ted Phillips? I don't even know who that guy is.
- Rory

Match said...

From a Mamabird player:

"Ted Phillips: He is a senior originally from Texas. He is an absolute product of the system, he had never played before his freshman year, but he may be our best receiver. He is the fastest player on our team (tied with Mac) and had the most goals in Missouri. He reminds me of Pebbles, in that he works unbelievable hard and has amazing athletic ability."

Slayer said...

Maryland is supposedly really weak this year because they graduated something like 10 seniors and there's not much depth left. so says a maryland grad.

UltiBlerg said...

Where can we find some love for the college ladies? what's happening in their division? Vegas was semi-boycotted, let's hear some noise! I know it's a lot of writing up to do. is someone covering the women's side?

Match said...

The women's discussion is something that is tough for people to hear.

I am really passionate about following and discussing men's ultimate (college and club). I've written about women's disc a handful of times and while I think there are great stories there, it just isn't what I am driven to write about. Gwen Ambler has done great work with icultimate.com, but when people ask me to write about women's disc, I simply reply "why don't you?".

I am not special. I never played at the level I write about and I had to do a lot of cold calling and leg work to develop the contacts and resources that I have, not to mention all the writing. In the end, I've spent a lot of time and money on this little free blog and there is nothing that stops a devoted woman ultimate player from doing the same thing.

Asking me to write about women's ultimate is like asking me to get a physics PhD on top of a Cell Biolgy one. It just isn't the subject I am passionate about and while I think physics (and women's ultimate) is a fine subject, it just isn't where my interest lies and I'm busy enough as it is. I encourage someone to follow my example and get on the blogging superhighway (wow, nerdy) and write a ton about women's disc. I'd be happy to offer some basic advice, but trying to get me to do it is a dead end.

As I'm sure Gwen will tell you, writing about ultimate is really hard, it can be very discouraging at times, people will try and knock you down, but just like anything in life, nothing worth having comes easy. You want the same discussion for women's or mixed or masters or whatever I'm lacking, take the initiative and do it yourself. I wanted men's discussed in this manner because RSD is garbage and I was motivated enough to do something about it. I would expect nothing less for women's disc.

shep said...

FYI Austin is still playing at AZ. Expect them to pwn some noobs at Stanford.