What to watch for in 2008

So after doing a fair amount of research and now that some tournaments have been played (and some big ones are coming up) I thought I would talk about a few things that I think will make this year interesting.

Trouble in Vegas

One of the reasons I wanted to post this right before TiV this weekend was that I wanted to give folks a few things to consider. A big change is that Wisconsin has already been outside. They destroyed teams as usual at Mardi Gras and have had a chance to get some grass stains. I think this gives them a new advantage in Vegas and considering that the weather is supposed to be good this year, I would expect them to dominant. Colorado will also draw some attention because now we get to see who they are going to bring in 2008. Will Beau saddle up again? Regardless of how Mamabird does this weekend, if their roster is more or less 2007 (minus Rabbit) they will be playing a lot on Sundays this spring. Florida will also be ready and the hype that they have received concerning this tournament can and should give them the fear of being publicly toppled. This will give them more focus, playing one game at a time and hopefully they can do well. The biggest question mark for me is Carleton. TiV will be the first chance CUT has to show that they belong. They beat Colorado last year at TiV with a healthy Jacob Goldstein. If the wind is bad, CUT will have an advantage with scores of seasoned throwers. However, weather.com has picnic weather planned for Vegas this weekend and that will favor the taller/faster teams. Also watch UCSD for their encore performance. They played great at Santa Barbara, winning the tournament for the first time since I have played disc. My undergrad buddies tell me that their roster depth isn't spectacular though and the grueling nature of Vegas may hurt them in the long run. Oregon will also look to make a name for themselves. So far most of the NW talk has hovered around Cal, and for good reason. Dusty and the rest of EGO will look to pop their 2008 cherry and their results will begin to paint a picture for NW regionals in the spring. UBC is also in this mix and I am curious to know what 2008 will bring for the Thunderbirds now that Oscar Pottinger and Morgan Hibbert are long gone. Also watch for Santa Barbara, Central Florida, Illinois, and North Texas. They have all had their ups and downs this year and are hungry for blood. Tide managed to beat everyone save the Squids in Goleta but they usually do well in Vegas. Hopefully their depth and experience will give them an edge. Central Florida had early season W's last year but dwindled as the season wore on. Hopefully they can repeat their success from a year ago and keep the steam through the series. Illinois and North Texas took turns earning big wins at Mardi Gras but both need to develop considerably before they can begin to dominate their respective regions. This is the time for them to gain the experience to challenge the best in the Great Lakes (Michigan and Ohio State) and South (Texas). Look for surprise wins from UCLA and Claremont. They both got screwed out of Santa Barbara and will look to show why they should have been in the slop. They are each trying to show that they are contenders in the Southwest and now is their time to either put up or shut up.

Will Neff's Transfer

One thing that I think will be really interesting and I haven't heard much discussion about, is Will Neff's transfer to Michigan. Will has been a stand out on every team he has played on including the 2004 WFDF Junior USA Team, Twisted Metal, and Northeastern. I can only speculate as to why Will decided to transfer, but coming from a large program (UCSD) to a smaller one (Yale) I can imagine his potential frustration. I hope Camden Kittredge (yes, Beau's brother) will forgive this transgression, while he is left to play without his 2006 FOTY teamate. I will say that Michigan has been a consistent program for many years but has yet to really break past the pre/quarters threshold. Ryan Purcell represents the core of this team and despite being a devastating defender, cutter, handler, and all around south paw iron man, he could still benefit from some added star power. I think Will's arrival will be like Nash and Stoudemire pairing up together. I have watched Ryan for a few years now and I think his heart and commitment will be rewarded in his fifth and final year for Magnum.

So far Michigan has looked good. They have had close games against Wisconsin and Carleton, not to mention winning their indoor tournament, beating Ohio State in the finals. Will's defensive presence will be felt right away but I know that it will take time from Ryan and the rest of Magnum's offense to adjust to him. With that being said, I would imagine that their results will improve tournament to tournament. Since the departure of Craig "Polar Bear" Forshee, Tom Worsfold and others, Michigan State has really dropped below radar. Michigan had a forgettable season last year, failing to qualify for nationals. However, Indiana and Ohio State have quickly stepped past these two motor state power houses by going #1 and #2 at Great Lakes Regionals last year. However, I think if Will can fit in with Magnum, they will have a 1-2 punch that cannot be stopped in the Great Lakes region.

The first chance we will get to see this Magnum team truly in action will be at Queen City Tune Up, which is an alternative to going to TiV. Notable teams that Magnum could use to prove their abilities include Georgia, UNC, Pitt, and THE Ohio State. I'm excited.

Queen City Tune Up

There is another big tournament this weekend outside the Cultimate umbrella in Charlotte, NC. Some of the leaders in the AC chose the shorter trek north instead of west and this is where the Great Lakes and Metro East powerhouses chose to go. Georgia and North Carolina are definitely the favorites to make the finals. Unlike Warm Up, North Carolina will be in attendance and could give us fans a chance to see where they stack up against Georgia. There might only be 2 bids out the AC this year and 1 of these 2 teams will attempt to knock off the other this spring as well as challenge Florida for that trip to Boulder. I have already talked about Michigan, but they must continue to show dominance over Ohio State and prove that they can beat them both indoors and out. The Leadbelly boys got the better of Michigan last year and made nationals. They will have the experience of knowing they are better, but they will need the heart and motivation to back it up. Delaware and Pitt will both be in attendance and each has shown success in the Metro East. Who will take the region? Delaware took the region last year and beat Florida lat natties but Pitt has made nationals the last 3 years. Hopefully they play each other or at least some common opponents to give us an idea. Lastly, UNC-Wilmington and Georgia Tech. They both did well at Warm Up but in deciding to go to Tune Up over Vegas, they are going to have to show that they can hold their own and need to make a good showing in bracket play if they want to contest the rest of the AC.

Wisconsin's Callahan Selection

This is probably going to be one of the tougher choices for the Hodags this year. When I asked James Foster about this he told me to look for Muffin, Shane, Drew Mahowald, Will Lokke, and Rebholz. Muffin is absolutely the face of Wisconsin. He writes more than I do on his blog and I think he definitely can make a case for the team's MVP nomination. However, despite his superb athleticism, his impact seems to revolve around his handling and his flick, which to me isn't enough to earn you the award. I personally think Shane is their best player. He can shut anyone down and has more consistency and dominance than most college players. 2008 will only be his second year on the team, however, and I can't imagine him getting the team's nomination this early in his Hodag career, despite his obvious talents. Mahowald is definitely a top notch player. It is too bad he plays with a slew of superstars because he would be a callahan nominee anywhere else. I didn't know his name at nationals but I kept thinking to myself, "that dude with FBI hat is ridiculous". Will definitely gives a good name to red heads in ultimate and I think he is a superstar. However, what he has seems to be almost the standard on Wisconsin and I don't see him really breaking away from Shane and Mahowald. Rebholz is one of the team captains and has some Heijman qualities. A silent killer with the fundamentals and skill to really punish his opponents while making his teamates look good. If I had to guess, the team will nominate him and if not Reholz than Muffin. The reason I bring this up is that I think Hohenstein deserves a Regional Coordinator nomination and I want whoever that RC is to be ready to look out for #19. I think the voters should decide this one and in the event Shane gets/accepts an RC nomination, I think he might sneak past a teamate on his way to getting a top 5 finish.

I am interested in this because Wisconsin has two major issues to deal with when it comes to the callahan. 1) They are on everyone's radar, meaning their candidate can win. Some sophmore who plays in the NW or the South or wherever, will be encouraged to vote for the callahan this spring and when he does, he will vote his team's candidate #3 but for #1 and #2 he will go with the guy from the team he knows. That will either be Jolian, Kurt, or whoever Wisconsin has. That is how Heijman won the callahan last year (I think) and considering that the talent distribution on Wisconsin is more or less the same as it was in 2007, the same thing could happen again. 2) They have a lot of potential candidates. They could easily nominate any of the 5 players I have named here, which would leave 4 remaining. However, like Heijman said when he got his callahan, he felt he was only the 4th or 5th best player on his team. Those 3 or 4 better guys are still there and I think an RC nomination could put them up there with Nord (RC nominated Callahan winner). Bottom line, folks pay attention, this is a good story.

Junior Ultimate Players

I am not the biggest fan of juniors ultimate (although I am trying), mainly because I never played it, nor really had that many teamates that played it. However, junior players are continuing to make a name for themselves and I think they deserve a vigilant eye. I have already talked about this a lot here, but keep an eye on Sam Kanner and Grant Lindsley for Carleton. Chirstian Foster is also part of the Carleton College Juniors elite. I hope he manages to play to his potential, despite attitude problems that hurt him and his teamates at Connecticut College. I hate to keep hounding this poor kid but when you are the #1 scorer for team USA yet can't get a long with your teammates, people are going to notice. A name that sometimes gets left out, but who I think is the real deal is Tufts Captain, Andrew Hollingworth, who opted to stay in Boston after winning gold and currently captains Tufts. He will definitely spend time covering his former teamate George Stubbs, who is now a freshman at Harvard (eh, fuck him). Bottom line, it has been two years now since team USA won gold and I think that their players are really going to start impacting teams throughout the country. I think CUT is in the best position because they arguably have the largest influx of talent that can and will impact their team right away. I believe this to be their main weapon against Wisconsin in the hopes of getting back on top of the CN region. Aside from CUT, Colorado and Florida both have spectacular freshman pick ups in Hylke Snieder and Alex Hill (actually they were both teamates on Sack Lunch).

Stanford Invite

This tournament is going to be incredible this year. If you are an ultimate fan and live within an hour of Palo Alto, do yourself a favor and go to this thing and watch. The #1 seeds are probably going to be Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, and maybe Stanford, sound familiar? This is the closest we will get to a true carbon copy of what waits in Boulder. Hopefully the weather is decent because this tournament is going to set the tone for Centex and the series. I almost wish I were going to this Cultimate tournament instead of Centex, but hey, they will all be at Centex, as will Georgia, so I can't complain.

Coaching Impact

Today's college teams are benefitting from years of complex strategy and development. Now that more and more teams are being led by former college greats and current club all stars, teams that may have had trouble breaking out of their performance level, may begin to earn some crucial W's. Most notably are Stanford and Cal. Cal is coached this year by Ryo Kawaoka and Stanford is being coached by UPA president Mike Payne. Other teams like Georiga, Colorado, and Brown also benefit from stellar coaches and I think coach-less teams are now going to have to wonder if they should hire their own Morris Buttermaker. I for one am very curious to know if the right coach can get Stanford in the finals or Cal to Boulder. Believe me, if a coach can do that, I think most teams will consider hiring.

College Nationals

I suppose this is a no brainer, but I am curious to know if there are going to be any tragic stories about players that can't make nationals for whatever school related reason. Maybe there are issues every year with Memorial Day, but I doubt it. Hopefully we will be talking about how great the CSTV exposure was and how awesome the Boulder facilities are. I will be there and come Monday the 19th, I will have an article letting you guys know what I think for whatever its worth.

I suppose I am just trying to convert some college players out there into fans of this great game and hopefully give you guys a few interesting things to keep in mind. Hopefully one of these stories actually comes to fruition. Stay tuned folks, should be a good year.

just my thoughts

match diesel

Hungry Hungry Hodags

I thought I would get the college discussion ball rolling with a little bit about Wisconsin. One of the captains of the Hodags (James Foster) was kind enough to answer some questions and I thought I would share some initial thoughts about their 2008 season.

Player Departures

The first thing on my mind for the upcoming year is who are they losing. Now I know that there are some obvious players like Callahan winner Dan Heijman who just finished his 5th year at Wisconsin and Jack Marsh is out of eligibility. Another really huge name that isn’t coming back is Dan Miller. I have been blinded by this kids nuclear hair color for a few years and his defense and all around intensity will be missed. Bobby Lau and Matt Scallet are also done but aside from these, Wisconsin is still returning a ton of experience.

2008 Play Makers

Two major players from last year that will definitely be striking fear into the hearts of opponents are Brandon “Muffin” Malecek and Shane Hohenstein. I feel like Muffin is like the Barry Bonds of ultimate (just physically, not all that lying stuff). I have seen some pictures of him from a few years ago and he looks like a completely different person. Then he had non-descript hair, he was slimmer, and generally not all that scary looking. In 2006 he sported the cornrows, and he still has the Oakley shades, and the Hodag headband. That and he is freaking jacked. Guy definitely did his ultimate homework and is committed to absolutely dominating on all sides of the disc, more power to him. Shane is also a scary mofo. I mistakenly thought Heijman got 3 layout Ds against Stanford in the semis at college nationals, but it was actually Hohenstein. I was far away and they both wear head bands, but after really watching Wisconsin and Sub Zero footage, I can definitely say, this guy is one of the scariest defenders I have ever seen. He literally killed Stanford in the semis all by himself. His man defense is through the roof. I will say that there are usually 2 kinds of good college defenders out there. There are the really fast guys and then there are the crafty ones. The best defenders are both and Shane definitely is and he brings the hurt, just watch the Fall tounrey footage from the Classic City Classic. I asked Foster who he thought were going to be the big play makers for Wisconsin this year and this is what he told me:

“Matt Rebholz and Kevin Riley will be holding down the O Line, breaking the mark at will and sending it deep to our athletic cutters like Will Lokke and Tim Pearce. Muffin (Brandon Malecek) and Tom Annen will be anchoring the D Line throwing to some of the best defenders in the country in Chris Doede, Andrew Mahowald, and Shane Hohenstein.”

What I think makes Wisconsin so good is that they are the poster team for athleticism as well as commitment to the game. Because Wisconsin is a state school they have such a large population to draw from and the chance of finding an all-state soccer player (Dan Heijman-Connecticut) or some Winona State transfer students with disc experience (Hohenstein and Miller) are much better than a small school like Carleton. With these kinds of athletes coming into town, your odds of finding one that likes ultimate and will work at it are much higher. It also probably helps that a top 8 team at Club Nationals is based out of Minneapolis. I wonder how many Sub Zero teammates are bitter Wisconsin/CUT rivals?

Young Guns

Another thing that I was interested to know about Wisco this year was who their next crop of all-stars is going to be. I remember the days of Tyler Spindler, Grant Zukowski, the Valdivias, and Tripoli. Now it's Heijman, Miller, Muffin and Shane, but I wonder who will be the next big leaguers? When I asked James this question he told me “Cullen Geppert and Ben Feldman will certainly be noticed this year by playing great defense and then cutting people up after a turn.” Ben was a member of the Junior Worlds team in 2006 and Cullen was a very solid defender for Wisconsin during the series last year. Hopefully they will carry the torch well.

Goals and Challenges

Another thing that I find interesting are Wisconsin’s goals for the year. When I think of the Hodags outside of college nationals, the first big goal I think of would be to win Trouble in Vegas. This team has been absolutely dominant the last two years and has lost only in bracket play or the finals of the first tournament of the year. In 2006 they lost to Carleton 6-5 (what kind of a score is that?) and last year 12-11 to Florida in the finals. They then went on to sweep the rest of the season in 2007 and lost only once more on Sunday at nationals in 2006. One thing that I think really helps Wisconsin this year is the fact that for whatever reason, Mardi Gras will be before TiV. Wisconsin usually kills people at this 60+ team tournament and gets cash in the process. I dunno how they travel so much but they have won Mardi Gras a few years running and only have a few teams like Texas and Kansas in their way. If they can get the dust off early and warm up in Louisiana, they might be able to work out the kinks and get fluidity in their offense to handle the high winds in Vegas. However, despite my focus on TiV as a goal, James said that “Our main goal for this season is the same as it always is: Win the Central Region.“ This I think is really interesting because it shows how much tension and history is in this region. This is not the AC or the NE where the teams on top routinely shuffle around. This is the Central Region, which is a lot like the SW. Wisconsin and CUT have been beating each other up in this region for like 20 years. For the majority of that, CUT has absolutely dominated with routine classes like Roger Crafts and Mike Caldwell in the late 90's followed by the Nord era, then Chase, Jimmy Chu and Sam O’Brien. However, it is without question that the last few years, Wisconsin has really showed themselves to be the big bad wolf in the upper mid west. However, despite a recent college national championship (their 2nd in 5 years) and 4 trips to the finals this millennium, they still focus on winning the central region. I love it.

I was also curious to know what sorts of challenges Wisconsin has. What does a team that is something like 110-3 over the last 2 years fear? Is there anything that can rattle a team like this? Apparently the main concern is “to stay focused as a team and not let any of the hype effect how we perform or how we go about accomplishing the goals we have set as a team.” How very Belichick of James. Their focus, again, is not to win TiV or repeat at Centex, not even to win another national championship, but rather earn “the right to play CUT in the Finals of Regionals.” What an epic saga CUT and Wisconsin have. It must be nice to have to struggle so hard with a team in your own region and know that in prepping to just make it to nationals you are beating a team that could beat half the teams in Boulder next May. I suppose this is an advantage to teams like Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Stanford, Oregon, etc.. because they have to work so hard to get out of their region that they end up getting better competition in the regional finals than in pool play at nationals. I don’t know how Zipp and Brown did it in 2005. I guess that just shows you how good the Amherst→Brown→DoG ultimate program is.

Callahan Watch

One thing that I wanted to know but was very doubtful to get a straight answer about, was who the Callahan nominee for Wisconsin is going to be this year. I understand not wanting to name a specific person because they probably don’t know yet and I totally respect that. But I also want to say that whoever Wisconsin nominates will be in the top 3 Callahan finishers if not THE winner. If you look back over the last 5 years, whoever wins nationals or is close, usually wins the Callahan. Wiggins in 2003 was the last Callahan winner to not win a national championship but he still played in the finals. Since then it was Richter (champion ‘04), Zipp (champion ‘05), Tim Gehret (champion ‘06) and Dan Heijman (champion ’07). Callahan voters are not smart, they vote for the guy that is nominated by the best team. Players like Dylan Tunnell, Tank Natenberg, Oscar Pottinger, and Seth Wiggins are great, great players, but if you aren’t going to make the Finals, you aren’t going to win the MVP. Nothing against people that vote, but the information gap is so huge (which is why I write this stuff) that no one knows anybody outside their region so they just vote for the players from the best teams. In any event, I just want to say that whoever Wisconsin does nominate, has a good chance of winning. One thing that I really liked about Heijman when he won was the he told Rob that he thought he was only the 4th or 5th best player on Wisconsin. If you watched them play, Heijman was definitely a source of assists, scores, Ds and ZERO turnovers, but the Hodags had a lot of other guys reeling in the fantasy points and a lot of them are still on the team. They still have a ton of talent left and if something like the Robbie Cahill/Mark Sherwood thing happens again, you might see 2 Callahan nominees getting votes. Regardless, James told me to start prepping my ballot for “Matt Rebholz, Muffin Malecek, Shane Hohenstein, Andrew Mahowald and Will Lokke”. What a PC and respectful answer. I am sure he is a great captain.

Tournament Schedule

This year Wisconsin is playing in Mardi Gras, Vegas, Stanford, and Centex. This is definitely a different schedule from last year where Wisconsin went to Terminus in Georgia and Easterns in North Carolina. I like that they are going back to Stanford. Once again I don’t know how they fly to all these tournaments. Colorado usually doesn’t go to a lot of tournaments like Stanford (until this year) and Santa Barbara because it is too much to fly but I am glad Wisconsin is going back to Palo Alto. It is one of the most elite tournaments in the country and Wisconsin has a tradition of doing very well at it.

College Nationals Thoughts

One thing that has been an extremely controversial issue is the college nationals debate. Since they are changing the weekend it is this year, as well as piggy backing with CSTV, there have been a lot of contrasting opinions concerning it. I heard that the UPA surveyed teams that were at nationals in Columbus but I will say that this is what the captain of the current national champions had to say:

“I am extremely upset about the schedule change this year. I do not like to look ahead that far but we have players that are scheduled to take finals during bracket play at nationals. If we are successful at Regionals it is going to be very difficult for our entire team to make it to Colorado in time to play on Friday and getting there a day early to practice is almost entirely out of the question.”

Closing thoughts

I think Wisconsin is the real deal again. I think they were as good in 2006 as they were in 2007 (Florida was just better). I think this year will be no different. I think CUT is definitely better this year (that will be another blog article-tune in tomorrow) and there will be some great teams out there, but if Wisconsin can stay focused, you will see baby blue play on May 18th. When I asked James if there was anything he wanted the rest of the country to know about Wisconsin in the new year he said “The Hodags are still hungry.“

Just my thoughts

Match Diesel