Boulder: Spectator's Guide and Pool Play Predictions

I don't know about the rest of you, but I am getting seriously fired up for Nationals this weekend. The weather in Boulder looks like it should be pretty sweet which is nice because I'm not going all the way to Colorado to stand in the rain. I want to try and get as many posts out as possible this week, and I thought I would start with my schedule for Friday and who I think is going to make it into pre/quarters. I will have another one up Friday night recapping the action and hopefully I can get another one up Saturday night after Quarters/Semis have been played and the Callahan award announced. And Sunday night I should have a recap of the finals and any closing thoughts on the 2008 season.

Pools

I agree with some of the seeding choices and not others. I am having a hard time swallowing Carleton as a 6 seed. I do not think they are the best backdoor team at Nationals and seeing that they have a head to head loss against Arizona, I think it's pretty bogus that they got this seed. I think Georgia has a good claim for this spot because of their series performance over UNC and seeing that CUT doesn't have a big win since Centex, I think they are over seeded.

Other than that, I am pretty cool with the seedings. I didn't have Georgia at 9 but I think they will be happy with that seed (again) and I would imagine Illinois is stoked about a 2 seed. Lastly, I like that UNT is a 3 seed. I think they could turn some heads this weekend and I am glad they were given the 12 spot because it shows that the TD has confidence in them despite not a lot of games against teams at Nationals.

Pool Play Schedule

Round 1 - Michigan vs Georgia

Right out of the gate, Magnum and Jojah go head to head in one of the best games of the day. Michigan has had a steadily improving season since their indoor tournament back in January. They had an unreal Centex and Nationals could be their best tournament of the year (not a bad time to peak).

Georgia on the other hand has been a bit up and down this year. They started out well making the finals at Florida Warm Up and lost a DGP semifinal game against UNC at Queen City. They would take a second step back at Centex where they didn't exactly dominate with a 3-5 record and lost to teams they should have beat in Harvard and Cal. However, rather than continue the slippage, they finished strong and beat UNC twice at Regionals to make the show.

When considering these elements, I think it is difficult to deduce who comes out on top. This will be Georgia's 3rd D1 v D3 first round game in 4 years and they are 0-2 so far. They lost to UCSD when they were the 4th seed in Corvalis and I watched Stanford run up and down on them last year in Columbus. In addition, I think Michigan's offense is going to be incredible which is one of the reasons I want to catch this game. They took their pool and made semis in Austin without Ollie Hondred and I think they have improved since March. I think Peter Dempsey (Georgia) will have his hands full against Magnum's O-line and Jojah's offense better value the disc because Purcell and Neff are not going to give it back. I think in the end, Michigan takes out Georgia. Georgia has a lot of depth but considering it's the first round of the day, Magnum's relatively shallow rotation won't have much trouble.

Outside this game I will be eager to check out frisbee central. North Texas faces off against Florida and while I think Gibson, Brodie, Cyle and the rest of the gators won't lose, it will be an indication of what North Texas is capable of. In addition, games like Arizona vs Pitt and Illinois vs Delaware will be interesting because each team has wins that put them above the other and considering Delaware beat Florida in Round 1 last year, I would not be surprised if some 1 or 2 seed got their tits lit because they were over confident.

Round 2 - Arizona vs Stanford

A rookie team at nationals vs a veritable ultimate institution. Arizona has been up there as one of the more consistent teams this year and Stanford has been anything but. However, this is Nationals. Making the finals at TiV or Stanford Invite doesn't mean anything and all that matters now is winning at The Show. My first thought is that Stanford's experience could hurt Arizona's Nationals jitters but in reality, it is quite the opposite. Arizona has several fifth years and only half of Stanford's roster has played at Nationals before. Had Arizona bombed at Centex, I would question their ability to win with this much pressure on them, but with a 4-1 record in pool play and good showings against Colorado in the series, I like their chances.

I think the biggest advantage Arizona has is at the handler position. Chris Shepard and Austin Gregersen are both very good and this allows Gafni and Kershner to just get open down field. Likewise on D, all of these veterans will be able to put pressure on a slew of Stanford rookies and I think it will take some serious composure on Bloodthirsty's part to win this one. Sherwood will need to play his typical work horse ultimate but with so many Arizona weapons and very few Stanford options, I think Sunburn gets a big win in round 2.

Another thing to watch for in round 2 are Illinois vs North Texas. North Texas could show why they beat Texas a month ago and give Illinois some pool play woes. Illinois has experience however, and runs a sophisticated offense that will take advantage of over aggressive UNT athletes. This will be North Texas' chance at their first nationals pool play win and Illinois' time to show why they should be a 2 seed.

Round 3 - Carleton vs Santa Cruz

I am interested in this game for a variety of reasons. First off, I gotta see my boy, Danny Boy in action again. His leadership has corralled a very talented Santa Cruz team this year and I want to see what kind of fire they bring to Boulder. Second, I have been really critical of Carleton since Stanford Invite and I want to see them when it matters. They have experience and after a tough Friday at nationals last year, Potter, Kanner, Baylis and the rest of CUT will want it more than most.

Both teams run very similar offenses. They have a ton of squirrley handlers that like to jack it to spectacular deep threats. Grant Lindsley (Carleton) vs Cassidy Rassmussen (Santa Cruz) is arguably one of the best freshman match ups at Nationals and I can't wait to see some fireworks. I think this will be the common theme to this game and whoever is more successful in the air will win. Depending on who has the composure in the air, either team could reel in a bunch of scores or give the disc back a bunch of times.

I have really liked Santa Cruz's "confidence not cockiness" attitude this year and I wonder how it pains out for a team with no nationals experience. Every Carleton player will be ready and waiting for an opportunity to take it to the Slugs and I hope each team remains focused. I like CUT in this game just because they are experienced and while Santa Cruz has had a great series, they still have a tendency to slip mentally at times. If they play their Regionals UBC game they could be headed to C2 status, but they better be prepared to keep up with a fast Carleton team that will take advantage of every mistake.

The other big game this round is Texas vs Georgia. Both teams have their fair share of fire power in Pressly (Texas), Dempsey (Georgia), and Swanson (Georgia) not to mention the fact that these powerhouses are 2 of the deeper teams in the country. Pool D has a tendency to be crazy with a lot of 9 seed upsets the last few years. If Michigan slips at any point on Friday, the results of this game will decide who takes the pool and who has to play early on Saturday.

Round 4 - Wisconsin vs Arizona

Round 4 at Nationals is weird because Pool B is off set by 1/2 hour from Pool C and D. This is actually a good thing for us viewers because it gives us a chance to figure out if the B1 vs B2 game is worth watching, or should we head over to Michigan vs Texas at 430pm.

Aside from bracket play, this is Wisconsin's biggest game of the tournament. They won in Vegas but everyone talks about how close Arizona got, not the fact that Wisconsin won the tourney. I think Wisconsin will want to silence the haters out there and will be hungry as hell to put a beat down on Arizona.

Outside the 1 seeds, Arizona has the best chance at beating Wisconsin. They have confidence and that is one thing that Wisconsin struggles against. Florida is unafraid of baby blue and that is why they are the 1 seed this year. Likewise, Arizona knows they can keep up with the 'dags if they play their game. Gafni lines up well against Wisco's deep defenders and if Mahowald is still out, Foster, Shane and Lokke will have to take turns covering #49. I am also curious to know who they put on Kershner. Maybe Muffin, maybe Rebholz, wouldn't that be sweet? 3 Callahan nominees tearing it up.

Once again, what I think gives Arizona a chance outside their Vegas confidence is their handlers. Last year Stanford had one of the best handler lines of anyone but they didn't take enough chances and got steam rolled in semis. Sunburn on the other hand likes their upside downs and hucks. They could frustrate Wisconsin's D and if they stay on serve, Wisconsin's O-face will have to get it done, something they couldn't do against Michigan.

Despite Arizona's experience, confidence and handlers, I still think the Hodags own them. Wisconsin thrives on intensity and Arizona has a HUGE bullseye on their backs as far as the Hodags are concerned. They will be focused, determined, and ruthless. Good luck to Arizona, you've got your work cut out for you.

Round 4.5 - Michigan vs Texas

It is around this time on Friday where the previous 3 round results will have an impact on what games to watch. If Texas gets the better of Georgia and Michigan does not slip, this game will be an awesome 2-0 vs 2-0, with Texas depth up against Michigan's skill. Despite the challenge of seeding teams at nationals this year, this 4 vs 5 seed was guaranteed and I will have a front row seat for the action.

Each team will have a lot on the line. Neither one has made semifinals and the opportunity to take the pool will really be a motivating force. Whoever comes out #1 will get a first round bye on Saturday and play a lower seed in quarters while the D2 or D3 will have to go through either Colorado or Wisconsin to make semis, yikes. I am glad these two are in the same pool because I really want one of them to make semis and as long as they don't suck in quarters, whoever takes the pool has a chance.

Depending on how each team does against Georgia and how many points each team has to play on Friday, each team could win this game. I like Michigan's skill and 3 pool play games should be a cake walk relative to getting through Wisconsin, Oregon, NC State, UCSD, and Cal in one day. However, Pressley will be one of the best players on the field and his speed makes him as dangerous as Will Neff's hammer. If Texas can play a good game start to finish, they have a chance, but if they try and pull a UNT comeback move, they haven't got a prayer. Word to the wise, don't take chances you don't have to. Hold onto the disc and try to score effectively, not quickly.

Aside from this game, the Colorado vs Carleton game is pretty epic.  These two teams have been ultimate powerhouses for many years and, historically, Carleton has had the upper hand, especially in 2001 when Nord, Sam O'brien and Chase beat them in the finals in Devens.  The last time they played each other at Nationals was in pool play back in 2003, with CUT taking out Colorado 15-12, but both made semis.  Since then, Colorado has 3 Finals appearances ('04, '05, '07) and a National Title (2004) while Carleton has only made quarters once (2006) during that same stretch.  CUT bested Mamabird in Vegas 11-9 but the Bird answer back in Austin 13-12.  Both teams are confident and experienced and while Carleton may be due for a victory, Colorado is 12-0 on Friday at Nationals since 2004.

Pre-Quarters

B2 vs C3 - Arizona vs Santa Cruz

I like Arizona to go 2-1 on Friday. I think their experience will be more than Stanford can handle and despite a good game with Pitt, Arizona should come out 2nd in this pool. All year I have been waiting for them to slip and they haven't and even though they are new to the show, I think they can get 2 wins on Friday

As for Santa Cruz, I think they take out Dartmouth but thats about it. Carleton will be so hungry because last year they lost 2 DGP pool play games to Georgia and Stanford and they are due to take second in their pool. Lastly, Colorado doesn't lose on Friday and despite going 1-2 in Pool Play, Santa Cruz should be happy to make pre-quarters, something a team like Delaware has yet to do.

C2 vs B3 - Carleton vs Pitt

I think one upset for Friday will be Pitt over Stanford, which is ironic because Ryan Thompson (Stanford) loves Pitt. Pitt slipped in 1 game in the series and are better than a 14 seed. They made quarters at Centex with a win over Texas and their victory over Wisconsin has given En Sabah Nur the confidence to make it out of pool play, FINALLY! Meanwhile, Stanford has Sherwood, but not much else and the B3 vs B4 game at the end of the day Friday will be a tough one for Mark. I did see him outlast CUT last year down to the wire but Stanford had two big wins going into that game (Georgia and Williams) and this year they could be 0-2 going into the last round.

D2 vs A3 - Georgia vs Illinois

I love the 9 seed at Nationals. In 2007 and 2005 the 9 seed beat the 4 or 5 seed (UCSD over Georgia and Georgia over Carleton) and I think Georgia gets past Texas. Texas has been a consistent program all year but Georgia is peaking perfectly and unlike Texas, Georgia has made it past quarters (2006). I think Georgia should have been seeded 6th and like Pitt, I think a lower seed helps them leap frog the 2 seed.

As for North Texas, they do not strike me as a team that will be unprepared for Nationals. I think they have the height and the speed to take it to a deep Illinois team and considering that North Texas has yet to play anyone at Nationals but Texas (they played Illinois at Mardi Gras and Dartmouth and Harvard at TiV, but a lot has changed since then and I figure tournaments before March are pretty suspect), I think we have yet to see their best and they have a chance to take 2nd in their pool. Conversely, Illinois' close losses seem to speak louder than any of their wins and I wonder if they have the ability to handle a heavy deep threat team like UNT. I would not be surprised if Illinois came out guns blazing and took this game easy, but I like upsets and considering that seeds 5-12 are pretty up in the air, the 2 seeds are going to have their hands full all day Friday.

A2 vs D3 - North Texas vs Texas

A game that no one will want, but I think could very well happen, is UNT vs Texas. What I find interesting is that if my Georgia/Texas and UNT/Illinois upsets are both wrong, this game could happen anyway. In this game, I think Texas has the advantage because of experience and despite the fact that sectional/regional rematches at Nationals suck, this game will be Texas' warm up for their usual quarters exit, this time to Wisconsin.

So for those that don't like to read all this crap, my Friday predictions are:

Pool A

Florida 3-0

Illinois 1-2

UNT 2-1

Delaware 0-3

Pool B

Wisconsin 3-0

Arizona 2-1

Stanford 0-3

Pitt 1-2

Pool C

Colorado 3-0

Carleton 2-1

UCSC 1-2

Dartmouth 0-3

Pool D

Michigan 3-0

Texas 1-2

Georgia 2-1

Harvard 0-3

Closing Thoughts

This year's pool of death seems to be pool B. With Pitt and Stanford both playing against their histories and Arizona making Nationals for the first time, who knows what will happen in this pool. Likewise, teams like UNT and Santa Cruz will look to make some serious noise but they could also crack under the pressure. Hopefully they don't think about their schedules as much as I do.

Another really bad ass thing about Nationals this year is that in pool play, many games we haven't seen yet will unfold. Michigan, Texas and Georgia have yet to play each other all year, likewise with Carleton and Santa Cruz. A Wisconsin/Arizona Vegas rematch and Florida va Delaware are also 2 games with some history behind them and with some new faces at Natties this year, Friday will be the best day of disc yet.

In the end, I think this weekend will go down like 2006 with Florida winning Nationals and the Callahan by obliterating the competition in pool/bracket play and an encore Blue Caller Rivalry Finals. Considering that the Centex Curse is no longer in effect, Florida has nothing in their way and like 2006, the shallowest team in the country will be in a show down with the deepest.

Good luck to everyone and have a safe trip to and from Colorado this week.

just my thoughts

match diesel.