So there is quite the post on RSD about National Seedings and I agree with some people and not others. I want to start talking predictions but without pools, it's tough to do that. So here are my seedings and pools that I think should be made.
1) Florida - No Contest
2) Wisconsin - have had a great season and 1 bad tournament. Anything less than a 2 seed is reading too much into consolation losses at Centex and is an insult to a team that won the NCUS, Stanford, TiV, Mardi Gras, Sectionals and Regionals.
3) Colorado - Slow start but won when it mattered. Made semis at a tough Centex tournament, won Fools Fest, swept through the series and are playing to their potential.
4) Michigan - Have huge wins over Wisconsin and Arizona at Centex. Took their region with a vengeance and are playing great ultimate. Some people want them as a 2 seed because of a win over Wisconsin but they also lost to Colorado and just because they handed Wisconsin their first loss, doesn't mean they are a 2 seed. Wisconsin is a great team but they aren't impervious. Their 40-3 season earns them a 2 seed and losing to Michigan means some things but not everything.
5) Texas - Texas is having a great year and they are not getting enough hype. Yes they lost to UNT at Sectionals but other than that they are playing great. A 7-1 showing at Centex is HUGE. Arizona had 4 losses, Colorado had 2, Wisconsin had 3, Michigan had 2. TUFF lost the first game out of the gate and swept through the rest of their games. Maybe they faced lesser opponents but their season has been great and they avenged their biggest loss. They deserve a 5 seed and nothing less.
6) Georgia - Everyone knows I love Georgia and they deserve a 2 seed. They had an ehh Centex but for a non-series tourney they had two huge wins over Carleton and Colorado, and that is what non-series tournaments are for. In addition, if UNC had made nationals they probably would be sitting around this seed because they took the toughest section and I think Georgia deserves the same treatment. They beat the team that beat NC State and UNC-Wilmington TWICE!! Their only blemish is that they didn't got to Vegas or Stanford but their season, like Colorado's, has ended perfectly. Plus, Colorado vs Georgia is ALWAYS a good game.
7) Arizona - In my opinion, Arizona is the best 2nd team out of any region and the only reason why I have them as 7 instead of 6 is because I don't want them in the same pool as Colorado. They didn't make nationals to play the same team they faced at Regionals and because Colorado gets seeded 3rd and Arizona doesn't deserve to be 5 (they lost to Texas), 7 is where they should be.
8) Carleton - They have big wins but they also have big losses. Wins over Illinois, Stanford, and Colorado get them a 2 seed, but losses to Georgia, Arizona, and Texas keep them at 8. I am not sure if they are better than Illinois but they beat Illinois, so it's tough to put them as 9. I think the Illini deserve better, but when you are a TD, you have to be able to defend your seeds and Carleton over Illinois just makes too much sense.
9) Illinois - The Illini are having a great year and I think a 9 seed is a good spot for them. They were a 13 seed the last time they made nationals in 2004, so they should be happy with this. Plus the 9 seed is the best seed at nationals because it gives you the highest probability of an upset over a 4 and 5 seed in pool play. They have a loss to Carleton so I have them here, no way around that. Their biggest game is a 12-13 loss to Florida, which is still a loss. Had they won, who knows.
10) Santa Cruz - The slugs, like Georgia and Colorado, have peaked well. They have a lot of red in their record but they won their region and that is all that matters. They have huge wins over Stanford, UBC, and Georgia, not to mention taking a section and a region for the first time in a LONG time. They are 1 of 3 lonely regional winners to not be in the top half of nationals but I think a 10 spot is fair and justifiable.
11) North Texas - UNT is a great team and should be seeded higher than this. However, they pulled out of Centex. Going to tough tournaments puts your team on the line. Wisconsin knew this last year when they went all the way to Easterns, and because UNT pulled out, we don't know how they stack up against Nationals teams outside Texas. I am sure K-Rich is awesome, but with only Vegas as an indicator, getting a seed higher than this is tough especially when teams like UBC came all the way to Austin to die in the sun and Denton is only a 3-4 hour drive. They are good, however, and could play upset so I wouldn't complain about this spot if I were them.
12) Stanford - I never thought I would see the day when Stanford would be a 3 seed. They have had a less than stellar season but they made the show and should be happy about that. They also did well at their own tournament and beat a 1 seed in UBC at Regionals. I also think we have yet to see the best of Bloodthirsty and they deserve to be above the M/NE.
13) Dartmouth - Pain Train has had a really great year and have taken the NE for the first time in their history. They won Southerns which is awesome and they are more evidence that Yale Cup is so weird. Once again, both teams in the finals failed to make Nationals. They are also better than Delaware so that puts them as the leader in the 13-16 pack.
14) Delaware - Man, Side Show really came outta nowhere. They really threw the seedings for a loop because with a Regional win over Pitt, they sent En Sabah Nur from a possible 1/2 seed all the way down to a 4 seed. They deserve to be in this spot because they took the ME and are #2 in the M/NE whirlwind.
15) Pitt - Ah, had you won that semis game, you probably would have taken the 5 seed away from Texas. Yikes, hopefully this motivates them to win the region in 2009. Word to the wise, a Centex win over Wisconsin or Texas means jack shit if you can't win your region. Peak later boys, but at least you made the show. Tufts would gladly take your spot so NO POUTING.
16) Harvard - I can't believe they are the last seed. They made semis in Vegas and now they are all the way down here? I suppose had Pitt won the region they might have been a bit higher, but at least they made nationals and they didn't even have to play Brown. I think a 2-1 record against Tufts in the series is a true showing of who was better and I think they'll do well here because Zirui, Phil, Dave, Vogt and Stubbs are all great players and could be hell on cleats for the rest of Pool D.
So this translates into the following Pools:
Pool A
Florida
Carleton
Stanford
Dartmouth
Pool B
Wisconsin
Arizona
UNT
Delware
Pool C
Colorado
Georgia
Santa Cruz
Pitt
Pool D
Michigan
Texas
Illinois
Harvard
Because these are not the actual pools, I won't go into too much discussion but I will say that Pool D is not the pool of death this year. The talent pool is too spread around this year with teams that have been consistent all year versus teams that are peaking at the right time. Each pool has awesome games and I don't think that there is clearly a Pool of death like last year when we saw Stanford, Georgia, and Carleton all together. But here are some comments about each pool.
Pool A
Some major rivalries here. Stanford and Carleton hate each other so this game will be good. Stanford was far superior last year but CUT is the front runner in 2008. In addition Florida and CUT has developed into a moderate rivalry with Florida losing to CUT last year in the Centex quarterfinals and Florida beating CUT on a heartbreaking layout D in quarters at Nationals.
Pool B
Wisconsin vs Arizona Part 2. I think Wisconsin comes out fast and hard against Sunburn but Arizona has yet to buckle in the face of serious defensive pressure. In addition, every game with UNT in it will be exciting. They are high fliers and as long as the air pressure doesn't give them trouble they could get up and over unsuspecting teams. Don't worry Brookdaves, I'll be watching in Boulder.
Pool C
Colorado vs Georgia, in pool play!?!? This has been a quarterfinal game the last 2 years and a pool play match up definitely favors the Bird seeing that they have taken their pool the last 4 years. In addition, having Pitt in this pool throws everything out the window. They have played as a top 10 team for parts of the season and could be the sour apple that spoils the hopes of the bunch.
Pool D
This pool doesn't seem all that scary. In it you have a bunch of teams that have earned their seedings and do not rely on hype or history. Michigan vs Texas is good because they have been so close in ability but have yet to play. Plus I am curious to know what Michigan's skill will do against Texas' depth. Illinois is also in the same position as Pitt. They could be seeded higher, but single losses prevent that. If Michigan or Texas look past them who knows, maybe Illinois pulls a UCSD '05 move. In addition, you have the club All-Stars from Red Line and while they might not have the legs to win 2 or 3 games, they could pick their battles and zero in on one of these guys and be the first NE team to make it out of pool play since Brown won it all in 2005.
just my thoughts
match diesel
5 comments:
From what I have seen and suffered against, Wisco seems to peak for Natties and have a gear they didnt for much of the regular season. If they do, they may be unleashing a lot of their wrath on Zona.
i dont know if i would have texas that high. i love the south, and the texas program, but the 7-1 centex showing is a little deceiving.
I'll give you that in not making bracket play they saw lesser opponents but they still beat UNC who made the finals and they beat Carleton. I can't really think of who you could put above them expect for maybe Arizona but they have beaten Arizona twice.
Aside from that, I think the main thing about 7 straight wins at Centex is that it exhibits no excuse ultimate. yes they got screwed but they won every game they should and few teams can say that.
I also think their Pres Day performance is huge with a tournament win and despite losing to UCSB-X, they came back and beat them in the finals.
Lastly, they made at least semis in every tournament they played in except Centex and considering that they didn't control their own destiny, I think that is pretty impressive. Texas has been one of the most consistent teams all year and I can't imagine them getting anything less than a 5 seed.
I'd put Illinois 5th and Texas 6th, and I wouldn't be surprised if Texas lost in prequarters, either.
sorry Ryan but I have to disagree. Illinois had a good Vegas (then again so did Harvard and they are 16th) but if you look at who they beat at Centex none of those teams are seeded higher, nor did they turn out to be as good as they should have been. Beating Stanford didn't end up meaning much and more of the same with Santa Cruz. Had they beaten Florida, yes a 5 seed is possible, but losses to Minnesota and Carleton hurt their case.
In addition, Texas won their region and Illinois did not and while I think the Great Lakes was more competitive this year, Illinois is not the best back door team, Arizona is, and Arizona should be seeded below Texas.
Plus if you put Illinois at 4 they will be in the same pool as Michigan and that is weak. regional rematches in pre/quarters is a risk you take when schedule like this, but I think teams would rather take a chance on not playing a familiar team than a garunteed match up.
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