Sockeye Invite Preview

One of the biggest ultimate tournaments this summer is also the smallest. Only 7 teams are set to descend on Monroe, WA this weekend but the results will have far reaching implications for Worlds and the UPA series. Instead of ECC in August this year, we have Sockeye Invite in July and each team attending this barn burner has a lot to gain and a lot to lose. Lets take a look at each team according to their seed.

Condors

Santa Barbara has slowly been slipping out of the elite discussion since they last made the Finals in 2003. Since they earned their Team USA status for Finland, the Condors have yet to really challenge the top 4-8 teams in the country. In 2004 they lost in quarters on DGP to Pike and they have yet to make it back to the elite 8. For the last few years they have hovered around 9-11th place and it is only a matter of time before another team in the Southwest brings the pressure of "not making nationals". Since '03 they have seen some serious departures with long time Santa Barbara greats like Greg Husak, Mike Namkung and Brandon Steets all moving to Jam. Likewise, JD Lobue is now playing for Bravo and periodic pickups like Jimmy Chu and Idaho have left the team for a more lucrative opportunity in Seattle.

Steve Dugan is more or less the core of this team and despite his efforts, the program has not produced like it once did. I think this has something to do with the fact that Black Tide has failed to remain as contenders in the Southwest. To make matters worse even when they were at their recent best in '04, players like Asa Wilson did not suit up for the Condors in the Club season. I can remember back in college when we feared Asa big time but despite his amazing cutting ability, composure and defense, he played co-ed out of college with Gendors and then Rival. Now Chain gets his talents and will be looking to Asa to fill the void that players like Grant Lindsley and George Stubbs have left behind.

However, the main thing going for Santa Barbara is their reputation. This helps them both locally and abroad. In Southern California, players will come up from LA to play with the Condors which makes sense considering the draw that a nationals level team has. Abroad, they can always count on TDs to let them into tournaments like Labor Day, ECC and Elite Colorado Cup which allows them to continually compete with the best. However, Santa Barbara really could use some big wins. They picked up DLK who will be a valuable handler and defender, and they do have the experience to make Nationals again this year but I think they are going to have to get their motor running if they want to avoid oblivion. Sockeye Invite is definitely a chance to do this and if they can secure a win against a team like Furious or Revolver, they can show once again, that they still have what it takes to win in Sarasota. However, if they fail to compete with the best West Coast teams, I would expect another mid level finish in October. Even if they beat teams like Voodoo, Rhino or PoNY, they still won't have the knowledge that they are a quarters team. They'll have other chances at CC and Labor Day, but I think it is time for them to either re-secure their spot at the elite table or get comfortable with the idea that their elite days are numbered.

PoNY
This team reminds me a lot of UCSD when I was there, close to making nationals year in and year out but continually stuck behind regional Juggernaut, Boston, and whatever the Canadians put together. I think the Northeast has 3 bids this year because GOAT and Boston both made quarters and with this extra bid, PoNY can get comfortable with the idea that Nationals is whithin their grasp. However, Bodhi has really begun to make some noise and it will be a battle of youth vs experience this Fall.

The main advantage PoNY has over Bodhi is reputation which they have cashed in with 3 tournament opportunties that Bodhi doesn't have, 1) Sockeye Invite 2) Elite Chesapeake and 3) Labor Day. It would appear that the main goal for PoNY is just to be competitive at this tournament. Jody, BVH, Bailey and the rest of these guys are taking a big risk signing on for these West Coast tournaments because these are squads they have never really played against, especially considering that they haven't made Nationals. They definitely have the individual experience with guys BVH playing with DoG and Bailey with Twisted Metal and Pike. However, as a unit, the overall team experience is very heterogeneous.

With that in mind, it seems like the main goal for NY is to begin to close the gaps between team mates. Even if they go 0-7, they still need to collectively gel as unit and Sockeye Invite will be a great opportunity for this. Teams like Revolver and Sockeye will play at a pace PoNY hasn't really seen before and hopefully they will pick up the lessons they need to be competitive later this year. I don't see them (or any team for that matter) going 0-7 because I think they have a shot at Rhino, Voodoo and maybe the Condors. Any win at this level will be a bonus because each team has a lot of experience either at Nationals or against Nationals level competition. If they can get a big win or at least prevent the 15-7 losses, they will gain some much needed confidence that will help them secure a bid out of the Northeast this October.

Voodoo

Now this is a team I know basically nothing about. I am aware that one of the Titcombs runs the team and they are more or less a feeder team for Sockeye. However, as an experienced B-team player and after seeing teams like Twisted Metal come and go, I can imagine how frustrating this sort of label can be. No matter how hard you work or what wins you secure, you are still pigeon holed because of the team above you. Now I highly doubt that there is any friction between Sockeye or Voodoo but I can also imagine that a lot of the Voodoo guys have come to grips with the fact that they aren't going to play for Sockeye and instead of constantly looking up, they should start looking forward.

With that being said, Sockeye Invite is really Voodoo's opportunity to break past the feeder team label. Much the way Kaos/Revolver has done in the Bay Area since '04 (maybe even before), with the right pieces it doesn't matter how good your surrounding teams are, if you put together a motivated bunch of flatballers, you can compete. If Voodoo can secure a big win, they will not only have the knowledge that they are better than just a "triple A team" but their reputation abroad will improve. I know that because Boston and Machine aren't at Colorado Cup, the TDs are still looking for an 8th team to fill the elite division. If Voodoo can perform well this weekend, that spot could be theirs. They are competing with teams like YR and Madison who each have legitimate claims to the final elite spot, but Voodoo has the luxury of a tournament to determine their worth.

I think their biggest game will be against the Condors. Realistically, I think Sockeye and Furious have way to much experience and talent for Voodoo to handle. Other teams like Rhino and PoNY have unclear performance potential in 2008 and I think Revolver is going to be incredible this year. That leaves the Condors who have been great in the past but have seen better days. Voodoo could give them a loss that will push them up and conversely shove Santa Barbara down. With a big win like this the 2nd tier Seattle Crew will know that they have what it takes to challenge the rest of the country but a loss will show a major disparity in mental toughness between a young Voodoo team and a veteran Goleta program.

Revolver
I think this team is one of the most motivated programs in the country right now. They first made Nationals in 2006 and definitely made their presence known with a pool play win over 1 seeded DoG. They also only missed semis by 2 points and on top of all of this, they missed out on Nationals in 2007 because of the NW Regional cap situation in the 4th/5th place game against Rhino. Now in 2008, each Revolver player is incredibly focused and determined to make the show once again. With only 3 bids out the NW, this will be quite the challenge because they will have to compete with Jam, Sockeye and Furious, the 1st, 2nd, and 4th overall seeds at Sarasota last year. However, with the Stanford pipeline and Mike Payne leading the charge, each player will easily have the motivation to put in the work to challenge the best.

In my opinion, the biggest story surrounding Revolver is their roster in 2008. Seth Wiggins (Sockeye) and Tyler Grant (Mischief) are suiting up for the Palo Alto crowd this Fall and with their already existing talent pool, they could be deadly in the Series. I'm not sure who Seth is going to play for this weekend (probably Sockeye) but it doesn't really matter. Revolver is a great team and one player is not going to make that big a difference. Seth's and Tyler's presence does more for overall team confidence and I'm sure Revolver will tap into that even if they have to play against little big Wiggins. I'm sure guys like Sherwood, Wisemen or Handler can say to themselves, "I know what Seth likes...he's not that scary" and that kind of confidence will help them against not only Sockeye but teams like Furious and Jam later in the year because each kid knows they are the real deal and just because an opponent has experience or age on them, doesn't mean they can't pwn them.

With all these things to consider, I think Revolver finishes 2nd/3rd at this tournament. They easily have the depth and the speed to get past anyone outside Sockeye and Furious and if they have done their homework, they can and should be successful. However, striking a blow against 1 of the big 2 will be huge for Revolver. They knocked out Furious and both Sockeye teams at Cal States, but they were beaten handily by the Monkies at Solstice. This is their chance to show that they are either the Cal States team or the Solstice team. Their schedule is favorable with 2 games to warm up before Furious and a Sunday game against Sockeye. They might slip to someone else this weekend, which is ok because it is just a round robin set of scrimmages. However, they should have their cross hairs aimed at Team USA and Canada and if they play their game, they could really rattle some Worlds cages.

Furious George

Furious is probably the team with the most to prove this weekend. Tournaments like Cal States, Flowerbowl, and Solstice are nice but they still have an early season "tryout" feel. Sockeye Invite is anything but that. This is their last chance to prepare for Worlds and this will be the most focused Furious team anyone has seen since Saturday of NW Regionals when they beat Sockeye. Sarasota '07 is a memory each of these Canadians want to shake and this will definitely be an opportunity.

I wish I could see some of their games because I know that this will be a huge opportunity for Furious to open up their roster. This is a tournament that will be huge for their "out of province" players like John Hassell and considering that Furious has 10 new comers, I would imagine that they all will get their opportunity to see points. I wouldn't be surprised if this hurt FG's record a little but because they will have a looser rotation which may hurt them against teams like Revolver and Sockeye, but who knows? Perhaps the new blood and Nationalistic feel will compel them all to play out of their minds. Only time will tell.

With all this to consider, I think Furious' goal should be to win every game they want to win. This is kind of a bizarre concept but I have been watching Furious for a number of years and it seems like there are 2 kinds of Monkey teams, the one that wants to win and the one that wants to play. They are a methodical team that wants to peak at the right time and I think that they are excellent at bringing it when they want to. They have epic 15-13 wins over Sockeye in the Finals at Sarasota but they also have atrocious 15-6 losses to them at sectionals. I can imagine Luggy in the huddle saying something like, "This is the day we get our confidence back. If you want it, you have to go take it. If you want to erase a bad memory and give yourself the opportunity to go into Worlds with the confidence to win, now is the time." I can imagine not wanting to go full throttle against a team like Sockeye right away, but I think Furious' goal should be to gain the confidence to compete at Worlds which means achieving your performance goal, whatever that may be. I could see them making the Finals and losing, making the Finals and winning, and even not making the Finals. No result is better than the other, because after all this is just July. However, if they get what they came for, they will be successful in Vancouver and hopefully in Sarasota this Fall.

Sockeye

The home town heroes. Sockeye always seems to do well at home. They have won ECC the last few years and I don't think they will slip this weekend. This team has set the bar for polished club teams with arguably the best website and probably the most professional feel of any team right now. I have never seen a team look this put together and I think all the work that each player has put in will pay off in the end. Work like this keeps teams from slipping into oblivion because people will always gravitate to a team that looks the part.

As for the actual tournament, I wonder what Sockeye's approach will be. Like Furious, they have to think about opening their lines because guys like Matt Rehder, Aly Lenon, and Sam Harkness are all new Fish (no pun intended). Having a tight rotation may be nice for winning purposes, but the Fish need to know that both Seth's and Chase are not going to be there for the Series and they will have to give their new players opportunities to gain the confidence they need to come up big in the Series. Likewise, this will be their last chance as a team to prepare for Worlds and they must take chances to expose any and all weaknesses before Vancouver. A conservative team that wins now, may end up having a weakness that is taken advantage of by a team like the Buzz Bullets, Australia, or Canada at Worlds. Now is the time to get the bugs out so I wouldn't be surprised if Sockeye wasn't as dominant as they will be next month.

However, peripheral to all of this, they are still the best team in the World. Mike Caldwell, Roger Crafts, Will Henry, Sammy CK, Blaine Robbins, Andrew Fleming, these guys have all been there since well before Sockeye won it all in 2004. All they want to do is win and what better place to compete than a very comfortable atmosphere. I think they will have a focus and a determination that only teams like Furious can have or even understand. They have the Team USA label and they will play with pride this weekend. I like them to win the tournament but that doesn't mean they go undefeated. Look for Revolver to make a charge in pool play and maybe Furious in the Finals.

Rhino

Now this is a team that hasn't exactly earned their spot at this tournament. From what I hear, Rhino is now only a shell of what they used to be with players like the Janin brothers, Kevin Stout and Dusty Becker playing elsewhere. They definitely have the experience as a team to take out PoNY, Voodoo and the Condors, but I wonder if they have the talent. Solstice, their first tournament, was not good to them, and I wonder if their legacy has gotten them a seat at a table they aren't ready for.

I could however, be totally wrong. I know enough about Club Ultimate to know that roster statuses change with the winds and teams have a tendency to come out of nowhere. A year ago I never would have pegged Rhino to take Revolver's spot in Sarasota and who knows what will happen this year. However, what I do know is that a lot of questions surrounding Rhino will be answered this weekend. With a tournament like Solstice you get chances at weaker teams and despite the fact that Rhino doesn't have a big win this year, they still have A win and a legacy. However, they cannot hide at Sockeye Invite. Round 1 they get a team that hates them, Revolver, and this will be Revolver's first shot at Rhino in a major tournament since they lost to them in the 4/5 game at NW Regionals. They dominated them 19-10 at Solstice and I wonder if this weekend will be worse. I hope for Oregon's sake (both the state and the college team) that Rhino competes at a level they have historically earned, but it will not be easy.

Closing Thoughts

Bottom line, this weekend is going to be sick. Every game is exciting and when folks are talking about predictions for the series or seedings at Nationals, this tournament will come up again and again. Each team's performance will be remembered long after this weekend and hopefully each has the focus and determination to make it a good one. Teams like Voodoo and PoNY are out to make a name for themselves while Rhino and the Condors are trying to hold onto what they have earned. Sockeye and Furious are prepping for the biggest tournament since Finland 2004 and Revolver is drooling at the chance to put the hurt on everybody. The only other big question about this weekend is Jam. They aren't here. In a year where there are 4-5 teams vying for 3 bids to Nationals every competitive chance matters and I wonder if Sockeye, Rhino, Revolver or Furious pick up something this weekend that they will use against Jam in the Series.

All in all, this should be a sick weekend and believe me when I say I will be glued to the score reporter. Keep your eyes peeled folks, its going to be an awesome summer.

just my thoughts

match diesel

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