My UPA Bracket

So after 6 years in the sport and 18 months writing about it, I'm finally headed to Sarasota. I got my plane tickets the other day, I'm set to stay with the UV guys. Rob's got some ideas, not sure what they are yet, but if things go at all like Vancouver, I should be on Cloud 9 by the end of Round 1. Here are my predictions for the tournament.

Thursday

Pool A - 1) Sockeye 3-0, 2) GOAT 2-1 3) Doublewide 1-2, 4) El Diablo 0-3
Round 1: Sockeye should take care of DW pretty easily on Thursday. I know they went to Universe at Labor Day but Sockeye is the new Furious and a 3-0 pool play showing is more or less expected. I think Doublewide should use this game as an opportunity to give their less experienced players a look at the best there is and save up for the GOAT and El Diablo games.

As for GOAT vs El Diablo, I can't imagine GOAT slipping but I don't know anything about El Diablo. If I were playing for DW, I would be very curious to see how El Diablo fares in the first two games of the day because Doublewide has yet to play them this year and they need a win if they want to make bracket play. Anyway, I see GOAT's internal chemistry and history giving them a major advantage.

Round 2: Sockeye over El Diablo, call me crazy. The GOAT/DW game will be a good one though. The score reporter has their predicted score 15-14 but I think a lot of DW's clout goes back to their win over Chain. If they really are that good, who knows but I get the feeling DW's victory over Chain had a lot more to do with the fact that they are Regional Rivals and know each other well. GOAT will bring a ton of quiet but violent cutters and push DW to their limits. This game is dicey because I can see DW making it a close one, come on they have Universe games against almost everybody (Revolver, Bravo, Truck Stop, Sockeye, PoNY, and Chain). However, if they get close and slip, they will have to play a fresh El Diablo team that is probably going to be coming off a 15-4 romping by Team USA. Considering they haven't seen these guys all year I really hope DW has the depth to just play their game and get a crucial W. They went 0-3 last year in pool play and I really don't want to see that happen again.

Round 3: I don't know why but I have this opinion of GOAT that they're passive. Maybe it's because John Hassell is just a big kid. The guy always has this "9 year old boy with a fire truck" grin and he just doesn't scare me the way someone like Ted Tripoli would. Anyway, Fish take out GOAT 15-11ish. I think Sockeye's depth at the 3rd/4th cutter defender will be really hard on GOAT. I don't know if Ouchterlony, Hassell and Link can get it done down field. Sockeye's defenders like Ryan Winkleman and Mike Jaeger are just relentless and I see them getting their team fired up. Hell maybe Skip will sneak away from the summit and get a D. I also think Eric St Amant is hurt and he will be missed for GOAT.

As for the 3/4 game, I want it to be boring and predictable. I want to see DW in the 1/4s play in game at the very least and while I think they'll have trouble with GOAT, I hope they cruise (sorry El Diablo). Hopefully they don't try too hard and only use their deep shots when they look good. God look at me, I've become the conservative Northeasterner I've mocked for so long.

Pool B: 1) Bravo 3-0, 2) SubZero 1-2, 3) Chain 2-1, 4) PoNY 0-3

This is easily the pool of death. Only pool where all 4 teams were at Labor Day. A finalist, a quarterfinalists, a semifinalist and one of only 3 teams to beat Ironside.

Round 1: The Bravo/Chain game should be really good. This would have been semis last year had GOAT not beaten out the Hot-lanta crowd on DGP. I think despite Chain's 3 seed status, they are in a good position to do well again. They seem to always climb out of the gutter in these situations. They took their pool despite being the 4th seed last year and made semis despite being a 10th seed 2 years ago. However, Bravo will want to set the tone early and they are really good at peaking at Nationals. Their new recruits have got to be integrated by now and the Popes/Parker show should be awesome for their O-line.

Sub and PoNY met at Chesapeake and despite a close 14-12 game, I think SZ has the advantage. They are a quarters team and PoNY is a Sarasota virgin. Maybe they trade points early but I think SZ will be as fired up as it gets to extend their winning streak to 20.

Round 2: The Bravo/PoNY game could be boring but it could also be really exciting. It is games like these that PoNY has done so well in. Because they are still inexperienced at this level, it seems like they tend to play to their opponents and when they are faced against the odds, they pull off crazy DGP finishes like against Ironside and Sockeye. But like I said before, Bravo is great at peaking and PoNY will be just another step towards playing on Sunday.

The Sub/Chain game will be one of the better of the day. Chain is a 2 seed quality team, as is SubZero, and this rematch from last year will be awesome. The winner will probably be looking at a relatively easy path to quarters while the other will have to crawl up through the quarters play in. I personally like Chain in this game. Early in the year I had SubZero in semis but now that I think about it, they need a few quarters exits under their belt. If you take a look at the Bravo example, they made quarters many times before semis and while SZ was there last year, they didn't even make a play in game the year before. I think SZ is on the verge of becoming elite, but like everybody else in that category, they are going to have to eek it out. Their pool, like Labor Day, is really tough and when/if they take that next step forward, they will have a trail of major accomplishments behind them.

As for Chain, their only real blemish is a loss to Doublewide at Regionals and I'm sure we can all think of crazy regional games that didn't add up to much at Nationals. Wisconsin/Iowa, GOAT/Boston, Bravo/Condors, etc... I think Chain is the best they have ever been and unlike SubZero, they have a few bracket play births in a row.

Round 3: If my predictions are right, a Bravo/SZ game after a great Chain/SZ game will favor Bravo immensely. Despite Hector's scouting report of his former team, I think SubZero will struggle. They'll probably do better than 15-5 at Labor Day but I've heard such great things about Bravo's D-line. When I saw Sub's O-line at Chesapeake it looked like it could be better. Hector has gone back and forth this year and hopefully SZ has their game plan ironed out. I know guys like Lindsley are awesome but at the Club level you really need your vets to get it done on the O-line and I think that is why Heijmen and Foster will be so important at this level. In a few years they could be the Mike Caldwell and Sammy CK's of SZ. I also wish Muffin could play. His will to win is insane and I would have liked to see him against a bunch of Mamabird alums.

Chain/PoNY shouldn't be much of a game. Chain is a great pool play veteran and PoNY is in a tank of sharks. I think PoNY will get up for Bravo and give them a game, but Chain should be ready to knock them down an additional peg after a tough loss. In addition, Chain's 3 seed status is a lot like USC playing in the Rose Bowl last year. They have a blemish on paper that relegates them, but they are so much better than their seed.

Pool C: 1) Ironside 3-0, 2) Jam 2-1, 3) Condors 0-3, 4) Bodhi 1-2

Round 1: It's been a few years since Boston was a 1 seed and I'm sure Forch, McCarthy, Seigs, Doug Moore and the rest of the DoG relics are glad to be back on top of their pool. First game against the Condors will be an old school Above and Beyond rematch but I think Forch and Doug Moore's supporting cast is a bit better than Dugan's. Goleta hasn't played Boston this year but I think their first matchup will go unfavorably.

Jam vs Bodhi will be an awesome game and I might find myself on this sideline. I have already said that Bodhi reminds me a lot of Revolver and I wonder how Jam will handle them. I think the Boston youngsters will have the depth to stay competitive all day, I just think their lack of experience will present a problem. Gabe, Bart, Damien, Steets, Idris, Cissna and the rest of Jam should have the composure that these kids haven't earned yet, but I think Bodhi has a lot of success ahead of them while Jam is clinging to their history.

Round 2: The 2/3 game in this pool might be the best of the day, next to Chain/SZ. Jam/Condors is always a good game and I think this could be a problem for the Condors. Last year Santa Barbara took Frisco to 14-16 in power pools which set up each team to get lit up by Bravo and GOAT. If this happens again, Bodhi will be in a good position to steal a win and head into Power Pools 1-0. Likewise, Jam will be in a rough spot having to play Ironside after a long one. Bottom line I think each team is going to lose after this game.

Ironside vs Bodhi is almost too sappy to be a watch able game. Forseter and Zalisk coach A-Hole at Tufts, so Disney, get your Gordon Bombay camera ready. I see Ironside coming out way hot and taking this game big time. The last time these teams played, Ironside won 15-2 and while I think Bodhi will score a few more, this game should be a cake walk for Ironside.

Round 3: Ironside vs Jam will be an eh game. Both teams are veteran but Ironside should cruise. They have the youth that Jam has not worked hard enough to invest in and I think guys like Stubbs, Neff, and C-Mo will bring a defensive pressure that will force Jam to go to 3rd and 4th options consistently. While Jam's roster is unreal, I think two of Boston's main defensive strengths are youth and depth and I can't see Jam handling it well.

Bodhi over Condors is one of my upsets for Thursday and I really like the young guns in this game. Even if the Jam/Condor game does not factor into the equation, Bodhi has played well at every tournament this year and I can't imagine them going 0-3. The Condors have the ability to rely on their veteran presence to get W's over less experienced teams like GOAT, but I like Bodhi's intensity. They qualified out of the most competitive region in the country and will be ready to stick it to the 3 seed.

Pool D: 1) Ring of Fire 2-1, 2) Revolver 3-0, 3) Truck Stop 1-2, 4) Machine 0-3

Round 1: Its too bad Truck Stop and Ring are in the same pool. Had TS played half as well at Labor Day as Colorado Cup they may have gotten a better 3 seed. Ring seemed to come out strong at Regionals and I see more of that here.

I think Revolver should do fine against Machine. I know the Chicago guys have a decent squad with guys like Joel Koehneman and Kevin Cho but their loss to Madison at Regionals is not a good sign. Losing at Regionals but still qualifying is cool but when you're looking up at Revolver and Ring, not to mention a good Truck Stop team, there really isn't much of a margin for error. They got a win in pool play last year after Doublewide went 0-fer but each team ahead of them should play well. In addition, this is Revolver's first game at Nationals since beating Rhino 15-11 back in 2006, a game they had to play after losing 16-14 in quarters to Chain. They finished 5th that year and since then they have picked up Tyler Grant, Josh Greenough, Seth Wiggins and Martin Cochran. Yeah and is it hilarious to anyone else that Greenough got cut from Jam back in '06 only to pickup with Revolver a few years later and now he is on the better team? Mike Payne, you're a crafty one, you are.

Round 2: Ring over Machine seems like a fair assessment, but who knows, maybe Ring pulls a move like Furious did last year and goes 0-3. As for Revolver/Truck Stop, I think it is interesting that despite losing 13-6 to TS, Revolver is 7 places higher on the totem pole. Just shows you how volatile the Club season is. I think Revolver is considerably better now however, and Truck Stop didn't seem to make good on the momentum they picked up at Colorado Cup.

Round 3: Ring vs Revolver reminds me a lot of the Ring/Bravo game back in 2006. Bravo was ready to make a semis charge and Ring was battling with their own demons and Bravo (5th seed) took out Ring (4th) in a storming 15-9 fashion. I'm not saying I think Ring is going to go down that easily but the parallels are somewhat similar and I think Revolver will come out of pool play 3-0.

As for Machine and Truck Stop, I really don't know. I want to give Machine the benefit of the doubt because a year ago no one had Truck Stop pegged to take out Furious and look what happened there. These two teams are one of the closest on the score reporter with RRI's of 2628 (TS) and 2621 (Machine). Plus their only game head to head was a 14-13 barn burner at Boston Invite, a tournament where Machine played terrible. If Chicago can bring the team that did so well at Chesapeake and Heavyweights, we may see a nice little upset. But if Truck Stop gets their focus back and plays to their abilities, they should make it out of pool play with a victory. I've heard good things about Ryan Morgan and Gorgeous George Strange for Truck Stop and I look forward to seeing them in person.

So with these predictions, I have the four power pools as follows:

E: Sockeye (1-0), Ironside (1-0), Jam (0-1), GOAT (0-1)

F: Bravo (1-0), Revolver (1-0), Ring (0-1), Chain (0-1)

G: DW (1-0), Bodhi (1-0), Condors (0-1), El Diablo (0-1)

H: SZ (1-0), TS (1-0), PoNY (0-1), Machine (0-1)

Friday

I usually don't do full previews, but what the hell.

Pool E: Sockeye (3-0), Ironside (2-1), GOAT (1-2), Jam (0-3)

I think the regional rematches in Round 1 will favor Sockeye and Ironside nicely. I think Sockeye takes out Ironside in the E1/E2 game mainly because Sockeye will be ready for Boston this time and I think their offensive velocity will be too much for Ironside.

As for GOAT and Jam, I like GOAT. They have youth and energy and Jam is in a position they haven't been in for as long as I've been watching the game. They have made semis every time they have made Nationals in the last 6-8 years but I don't see it happening in '08. With that being said, I think this game will be one of two that pushes Jam out of bracket play for the first time like ever.

Pool F: Bravo (3-0), Revolver (2-1), Chain (1-2), Ring (0-3)

Bravo vs Ring will be a Chesapeake rematch that Bravo will be ready for. Bravo has taken care of Ring well the last few years in Florida and I see more of that here. As for Revolver vs Chain, this game will be bad ass. Quarters two years, Revolver is better, Chain is better, should be a great contest. I want to take Chain but I wonder if they peaked early. I think Revolver will be poised to play their best at Nationals and they should be a pitt bull no one wants to face next weekend.

The second round of games will be less exciting. I think Bravo should take care of Revolver simply because their Mamabird heavy roster is more experienced at the club level than Revolver's Stanford heavy roster. Like I said, Revolver should play their best next week, but Bravo will as well and JB is already 2-0 against Revolver this year.

The Chain/Ring game will also be predictable. I definitely think Ring earned their one seed status but Chain is good at crawling out of the cellar at natties and I see them taking out North Carolina.

Pool G: Doublewide (3-0), Bodhi (2-1), Condors (1-2), El Diablo (0-3)

Doublewide's experience at this level should really help them in power pools. In my world they would face off against two very different and difficult challenges in the Condors and Bodhi. They took out the Condors 13-5 in Colorado and I think their veteran roster and chemistry will work effectively against the Condors inexperience. As for Bodhi, I don't even know. They should be able to take out the kids, but I get the feeling that anyone that underestimates Bodhi is gonna find themselves in a world of hurt. I think Texas' size will be an advantage and I think Bodhi will struggle as they did against GOAT.

As for El Diablo, my apologies but I don't think they are going to get a win until really late in the tournament. 4th seed Sarasota virgins usually have trouble for a while and I don't know what separates a team like El Diablo from the Van Buren Boys, Monster or PBR. Maybe you get a win over a team like Machine or PoNY late in the tournament, but I don't see it happening against anyone in this pool.

Pool H: SubZero (3-0), Truck Stop (2-1), Machine (1-2), PoNY (0-3)

SubZero should be really pissed to have to stick out in lower pools but that hunger will be a great weapon. I think Doublewide's victory over Chain has hurt SZ the most because they once again are strapped with a really rough road. They should do fine against Truck Stop and Machine and make the quarters play in.

As for Truck Stop, I think they have what it takes to get past PoNY. A 15-6 win over them at Chesapeake is a nice follow up to their 13-10 loss at BI. PoNY will be a in rough spot because Truck Stop will have the confidence New York still needs to earn, and I think this will really help DC. Both teams have similar tournament attendance records but Truck Stop should get the win.

The H3/H4 game should actually be pretty good. I think PoNY will have the talent to get a win in this game but Machine has experience. In their only contest of the year Machine took out PoNY 15-7 (Chesapeake) but I think PoNY is better than that. However, I think Machine will be itching to get a win on Friday and they should be able to get out of power pools with at least 1 victory.

Unless I have screwed something up here, the quarters play in should be Jam vs SZ and Ring vs DW. I think SZ/Jam will be an awesome game. I think Jam will have issues playing a game they've never had to and SubZero will really want to make it back to bracket play. If SZ wants to be elite, this is a game they need to be able to win and it will be a nice confidence boost for them to have to earn this quarters birth after a rough road through power/pool play.

As for Ring and DW, I like Ring. North Carolina was in this same slot two years ago and I think they have the experience to get past Doublewide. These two teams haven't played this year and I think this will be a game that DW earned because of their Chain upset but I think they will be in a bit over their heads.

Saturday

Quarters

Sockeye vs Ring: Yeah, the Fish should do fine here. I wonder if Sockeye is in the position Furious was in back in 2006, not having to be really challenged until very late in the tournament. Ring will be a nice opportunity for Sockeye to integrate most of their roster because keeping the starters on for a 15-7 routing isn't very productive.

GOAT vs Revolver: I filled out this whole bracket thing just to get to this game. Last year, this game was Chain vs GOAT and once again, GOAT lucked out with the 8 seed. This seed is money because you draw the weakest 1 seed, which matters when/if the pool D 1 seed isn't stellar. In '07 Furious sucked and two years ago Bravo leaped frogged Ring. If Revolver can assert their dominance over Ring, this should be the best quarters game. In years past it was GOAT over Chain 15-14 ('07) and Chain over Revolver 16-14 ('06). If it goes down this way, I like Revolver. I think like GOAT last year and Chain the year before, they are the team that will crack into semis that is not a 1 seed.

Bravo vs SubZero: School is in session and Bravo is ready to play teacher. This SubZero team is so close to what Bravo was 3-4 years ago and I think that experience will allow Bravo to be successful. I think SubZero making it this far is a great indication of their potential and I like them to fight tooth and nail in consolation games to finish 5th.

Ironside vs Chain: I like the Chesapeake Finals rematch only this time Ironside should be ready to role. I think Boston's weakness in Maryland was their O-line efficiency and from what I could gather at Regionals it looks like their O-line will be DoG-esk in the sense that it will rely mostly on veterans while their D-line has their athletic studs like Neff, Stubbs, C-Mo, and Teddy. Chain's depth on defense might pose a problem, but I think Ironside's patience will be lethal in that they just won't give Chain a chance to make big plays on D. Plus Forch will want to remind Zip who is top DoG.

Semis

Sockeye vs Revolver: For the last few years it seems like Revolver's main challenge has been Jam because they are so closely coupled, but now they should be eyeing Sockeye. However, unlike Jam, they don't have a lot of success against Sockeye yet and despite two close games this year, I like Sockeye. I hope for Sockeye's sake that Revolver gives the Fish a game because if history tells us anything, the team with the closer semis game usually performs better in the Finals. In 2007 Sockeye and Jam went to 17-15 while Bravo owned GOAT 15-11 and in 2006 Sockeye duked it out with Bravo 15-13 while Furious rolled Chain 15-7.

Bravo vs Ironside: This game is like Sockeye vs Bravo two years ago and Sockeye vs Jam last year. It will be the clash of the 1 seeds with no clear front runner. I think Bravo has a slight advantage just because they have been there more recently, but this could easily be the game where Ironside shows just how good they are. I like this to be a 15-13 barn burner with Bravo coming out on top. Bravo knows how close they are to a National title and I think this is their year and despite Ironside's talent, I think their Finals charge is still 1 year away. Plus Bravo has met their end to Boston a few times in bracket play and I'm sure they like the reverse relationship.

Sunday

Sockeye vs Bravo: It's funny, if you pay enough attention for long enough, you really tend to pick up trends in this sport and if things turn out to be as predictable as they are in my head, this game should favor Bravo. I think back to 2006 when Sockeye first beat out Furious and 2008 draws similar parallels. Only this year Sockeye is the team everyone expects to win and Bravo are the young brawlers that everyone knows could win. In '06 Furious was the 1 seed and Sockeye was 2. Furious had an easy road to the Finals and I see Sockeye getting that advantage this year. Bravo on the other hand will have to face off against a good SZ team and a great Boston team before they can even think about the champs.

While I think Sockeye has all the pieces to earn a 3rd consecutive National title, I like Bravo. They are so ready and this is easily the best they've ever been. Sockeye is amazing but they aren't as good as last year with their roster departures. Bravo on the other hand is absolutely ready to win it all and I don't see anything stopping them. I really think their quarters and semis challenges will help them prepare for the finals and considering the fact that Sockeye has ended their last two seasons 15-13, I think 3rd times a charm.

Closing Thoughts
It's been a crazy ride this summer/fall. College was a ton of fun to follow earlier this year and while Club was much more difficult and challenging, I like where things ended up. Much like college, I feel like each team in Sarasota will have some sort of story behind them and I think that is important. In reality, no game is inconsequential and for me it is really important that everyone has some dialog associated with their team. For all intents and purposes what I write should NOT be read by the competitors because they have other things to focus on, but for you at home, hopefully reading stuff like this will make your UVTV subscription worth something to you.

As for my own reflections on the year, I think 2008 was pretty sweet. Ironside's resurgence, Hector's free agency, Chain's consistency, Worlds, Bodhi/PoNY, DW over Chain, Furious missing out on Nationals, Truck Stop at Colorado Cup, Bravo's charge for Gold, these have all been great stories over the last 6 months and now we all get to witness the circus that Sarasota will be. I think Chain's loss to DW is the biggest curveball so far and with Ring potentially being in a similar position as Furious last year, who knows what could happen. Likewise, Jam is looking down the barrel of a gun they've never seen before and I think the Bodhi/Condor game is very interesting because it pits a veteran team with no Nationals experience against an experienced Nationals team with fewer veterans. I can't wait for next week and I hope you all are as excited as I am. Stay tuned.

just my thoughts

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