Terminus Thoughts

So I know it isn't under the Cultimate umbrella, but Terminus this weekend is going to be an exciting tournament with a lot of good teams in attendance.

Tournament Teams and Format

This tournament has definitely fluctuated in team numbers as well as programs in attendance. This tournament used to be a stomping ground for the Hodags who won it last year against Pitt and the year before over Georgia. Now that Cultimate has further legitimized Stanford Invite, it looks like the 'dags are going to head West instead of South East, but no matter, the tournament field this year is still good.

What is really good about this tournament this year is that questions concerning a variety of teams will be answered. A few teams that have really had explosive Winters have been NC State (Won Queen City), Illinois (Colorado and Oregon), and Tufts (8-1 at TiV, only losing to Arizona on DGP). This weekend we will get to see if these results were flare ups or just the beginning.

The one thing that is the weirdest about Terminus this year is the format. I think the separation of the top 10 from the bottom 16 is interesting. I like how the TD wants to give the top 10 teams good games on Saturday and give the bottom 16 teams games they can win on the first day of competition. I will say that this format is risky however. For the most part, these teams are not from the same region so seeding them relative to one another is hard. When you prevent teams from bracket play early (ie no pool play) you really have to be confident in your rankings. Seeing that few of these teams have played eachother makes this tough. Tufts fell victim to this at Vegas. They went 8-1 and only lost to Arizona 11-12. Because of their seeding, this loss relegated them to 17th place preventing them from bracket play.

However, while the formats are similar, I think the TD planned this well. 6 teams get to make it out of the bottom bracket and if you don't earn a spot, odds are your probably don't deserve to be in bracket play. The one thing I will say is that I am afraid that one team from the top bracket will go 0-4 on Saturday pitting them against another top seed team. If/when they lose this game, they are out. Now is this fair? When you have separate brackets in tournaments like this, at some point you have a bottom bracket team play a top bracket team to see who gets to make Sunday. This is more or less a pre-quarters play in and it is a smart way to dodge the seeding bullet. If you got robbed by your seed and you win you'll get a chance against the better teams and if all the stars align, you will be vindicated. Opposite case for the top teams. If you get a lucky bid, you have to beat somebody to make bracket play. I make this point but with 6 teams moving up, I don't think it will be a problem. In a tournament of 26, this format is refreshing and fair. With 80 teams, some one is gonna get screwed.

Pool A - NC State, Illinois, Dartmouth, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin-WW

NC State 4-0: Both top pools are very exciting. Right now the UPA is a big fan of NC State and have them at #3 in their rankings. This is a really tough position to be in as is trying to defend an undefeated record. The only way NC State can come out on top is for them to sweep the tournament which is more or less what comes with a 1 seed. I see them potentially winning the tournament but going undefeated is going to be hard because they have a lot of different kinds of competition on Saturday. First round is against WWW who is more or less the LPC of the Midwest. They aren't the biggest high fliers but they have team chemistry and dedication (they won Div 3 natties last year). I see the Wolfpack winning but then they play Dartmouth which I think will be their first tough game. Pain Train is a scrappy team with smart handlers and great offensive flow. Sam Haynor is a great all around player and epitomizes Dartmouth's unique spirit. Drew Raines is another great player who is amazing in the air despite his smaller frame. Socks is also a great handler/defender and his offensive leadership is only eclipsed by his absolutely AMAZING blue eyes. I see NC State being faster top to bottom however and will able to play offense at a speed Dartmouth can't defend. They will generate scores however and keep NC State honest. The Georgia Tech game will probably be their 2nd most important contest behind the 1-2 game because it is against a regional rival. Recently GT has been closer (not by much) to making nationals than NC State and wins against teams like them are necessary if NC State wants to return to the show. If they can assert their dominance by remaining composed, I see them looking good for the series. The 1-2 game will be one of the better games of the Winter. Illinois had a great time in Vegas and I think a lot of people are curious to know what they can do a month later. The GL is wide open this year and if Illinois is for real, we'll see that in Atlanta. I think NC State is good but the 8-0 record was at QCTU, not exactly the most premier tournament, but I shouldn't say it isn't worth a lot. Illinois, however, did well at a premier tournament but it's not like they made semis. With that being said, it will be nice to know how these two fish from different ponds line up on one another. I think NC State is ready however and will earn the W.

Illinois 3-1/2-2: Illinois is a good team and they took advantage of some good teams while they were sleeping in Vegas. However, what really hurts them is that the teams they beat to make some noise, Colorado and Oregon, have not bounced back. If either team had done well in Palo Alto, maybe Illinois would look better, but now their best game looks like the 11-13 loss to Florida which came after Florida was eliminated. With that being said I think they are good but not as good as we thought a month ago. First game is against Georgia Tech and I like this match up. Georgia Tech is a fast AC team that is conditioned. I think Illinois is more experienced so it will make for an interesting game. I hope for Illinois' sake that they do well because to struggle this early will put their National's hopes in doubt. Next game is WWW and I think Illinois has the advantage. I am willing to bet that the two teams play similar games, Illinois is probably just better at it. Round 3 is against Dartmouth and this is the make or break game. Dartmouth has a similar 2-3ish stance in the NE that Illinois has had in the GL. They will play 2 different kinds of games but both have similar senses of entitlement and ability. They both lost close to Tide but Illinois beat Colorado. I see Illinois winning but this game either makes them 3-1 or 2-2 come days end.

Dartmouth 2-2/3-1: Their second game against Georgia Tech will be interesting and important. They will probably be coming off a loss to NC State and they will have to re-group. Nothing to really change but seeing a strong AC team will help them against another one. I think their mistakes in the NC State game will highlight chances they took and didn't take. This will be useful against a Georgia Tech team that will be close to as fast but not as well oiled. They will be able to take some deep shots and rely on young mistakes to avoid getting broken. I see their offense clicking well, they just need to avoid throwing to receivers that aren't open. Next game will be against Illinois which will be good, I just think they could use a bye before. This will be their chance to break seed and hopefully they have the legs to do it. Last round will be WWW and whatever kind of day WWW is having, Dartmouth will be ready. If WWW is suddenly turning heads Dartmouth will be ready and lucky it's the last game. If they are 0-3, Dartmouth will still be ready.

Georgia Tech 1-3: I want to see GT make a name for themselves out of the AC because they are an athletic team. They also come from the same section as Florida, Georgia, and UCF so they see a lot of competition. They did well at Warm Up and this will be their 5th tournament of the year so whatever game plan they have should be sorted out by now. I think they can edge past WWW but I would love to see them earn a win else where in pool play. Maybe Illinois if they are not as good as discussed, maybe Dartmouth if their lack of outdoor practice still presents a problem. Good luck.

Wisconsin Whitewater 0-4: I have them as 0-4 but they could do better. They will see 4 opponents from 3 different regions but I think, as opposed to Dartmouth and Georgia Tech, they will be ready for unfamiliar opponents. Their hopes will have to rely on their offense. Hopefully they can score on a team who will play great D and good offense once a turn is generated. I really want to see how they do because at some points during the year they have threatened to break into the NUMP and I want to know definitively whether or not they belong there.

Pool B - Georgia, Minnesota, Tufts, Davidson, and Williams

Georgia 4-0: I am a big Georgia fan and I think they do well this weekend. Their O and D teams both made semis at Mudbowl and I think each team will have things worked out well. First game will be against Williams and I am betting Georgia is a little concerned about Williams as a bottom seed. They met at nationals and now they are first up in pool play? The biggest problem is not that Georgia is/isn't ready, it's that no one knows what Williams will have. They beat Stanford at a soggy SB Invite, but for an encore? They could be top shelf, they could be average, we will know bright and early. I think Jojah handles them either way. They are large (in #s and size) and their depth will edge past WUFO. Next game is Tufts and this will be the toughest game of the day. Tufts is a great team thus far and has 1 loss to America's Cinderella team. Their cagey offensive threat will be 180 degrees from Jojah's brute force and it will be nice to see who wins. If Tufts were a deeper team I might give them the nod but I don't think their crafty ways can go against a sea of red and white. After a bye they play Davidson who I know nothing about. Davidson lost to UBC and Wisconsin at TiV (big surpirse) but they beat Dartmouth and regional rival Central Florida. I think Georgia's size will give them all the fire power they need however. Last game is against Minnesota and I am a little curious as to why they got the 4th seed. They did well at Mardi Gras but I think Tufts should have gotten the 2 seed in this pool. They haven't played in a tourney in over a month and I wonder if their winter legs will be ready for Georgia's endurance. Hopefully they have conditioned. I like Jojah's odds.

Minnesota 2-2: Minnesota is a good team but they aren't tested enough. They have insurmountable regional competition, so their out of region games are huge. They went 6-2 at Mardi Gras making the finals but their only win to a team at their level is Georgia Tech. I would not be surprised if they owned but I would also not be shocked if they didn't. Having Davidson as a 4th seed doesn't help me much because I don't know how this first game is going to go. Second game will be against Williams and if Minnesota is deserving they will handle WUFO. WUFO has a tendency to bring it at odd times. They didn't look that great last year until regionals so they might not be ready for Terminus. They then play Tufts and this will be another great game. If you look at their schedule Tufts beat Central Florida 11-10 and Minnesota beat Georgia Tech 11-10. Two AC teams at similar levels, I think UCF is better, and this makes this game a close one. I like the E-men. Last game will be Georgia and if Minnesota losses to Tufts, Georgia will eat them alive. If they are undefeated, the game will be close at first but I think Georgia takes them out 15-10ish.

Tufts 3-1: I am really excited to see what happens with these guys. They are a new contender in the NE (well new since 2004) and Andrew Hollingworth is a great captain who has been coached by the best. Tufts will be ready to role and their TiV results show that they can play well far from home. I wish they weren't playing Georgia first because I think they could probably use some sort of warm up before the dogs are let out. I think they put up a good second half game but still go down. I think they will handle Davidson alright because their offense will be finely tuned because Tufts is a good program with a good coach. Next they play Minnesota and, like I said, I think they win. Last game is Williams and I think they are looking forward to this one. The NE is definitely as open as it has ever been and the first step to making nationals is sizing up your regional competition. These are two teams that have duked it out in May before and hopefully Tufts' new game plan will be all they need to take out WUFO.

Davidson 1-3: I don't know much about this team but I will say traveling to Vegas is a big deal. It shows your team is committed and they did have some good wins against Claremont and Central Florida. They could be better than TiV, they could be worse. They play Minnesota first and I think each team will have something to prove. The results won't really matter because I think each will want to bring it against Tufts to either break or hold seed. I hope for their sake they can handle Williams and round 3 will be the biggest deal for Davidson. They went 6-3 at TiV, Tufts 8-1. The winner of this game will be stoked going into their final round and Davidson will need all the help they can get against the Dawgs.

Williams 0-4: Like I said, Williams brings it at weird times in the year. Last year they didn't look great at Yale Cup but they went on to make nationals a month later. I don't think they bring it now but that doesn't mean they are out of it for the year. Hopefully their young roster gets a win on Saturday so that they earn their top bracket status.

6 Pack

The teams I think will make it up to bracket play will be UCF, Cornell, Maryland, Virginia, William and Mary, and Colorado State.

I like UCF's 11th seed spot and I bet they do to. They did well for themselves in Palo Alto and I think they are in a good position to play some teams below them and to make it into bracket play on Sunday. I hope they play a 3 or 4 seed from the top pools as opposed to a 1 seed. I think they deserve at least quarters and should have gained a lot of experience from Stanford.

Cornell just had a tournament win and I think they have the confidence to play to their level. They also need composure however. They choked last year at regionals when they should have made nationals and I think this will be an exercise in pressure play.

Maryland is a good team that made the finals at Hellfish. I think they have what it takes to earn a spot on Sunday.

Virginia played well at Hellfish and Spring Tide. They aren't great but I do see them breaking away from a bottom 10 standing

William and Mary is nothing close to what they used to be but they are still a program. All of their losses at Ultimax were close (save tournament winner Notre Dame) and they also had big wins against Delaware and Central Florida at Hellfish.

I didn't want to take 11-16 so I went with Colorado State. They do well in the South, at least at High Tide, and I think they earn a leg up. Nothing great from TiV but I think they will be 5th or 6th out of the bottom bracket.

Closing Thoughts

I want to see an NC State vs Georgia final mainly because it will answer questions about the AC but I don't see it happening. One of these teams will faulter before the finals and it really could be either one. NC State has a lot of pressure on them and the last time they had pressure like this they sucked at nationals back in 2003. Georgia has also been guilty of under-performing, especially in the series, so they could slip to someone.

I would love to see Tufts make a run and if I had to chose between Georgia and NC State, I would go with Georgia mainly because they do really well here. They have played in the finals many times and this might be there chance to win it all now that that Wisconsin has bigger and better things to do.

Good luck to all teams. I wish I could still be down in the dirty south causing all sorts of Spring Break trouble. However, my SB days are over but I do have as many memories as anyone. Stay outta trouble and make sure you get all your rookies home safe.

just my thoughts

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Thats why they play the game

I am going be honest. I had almost an entire write up done going into the finals. I started researching Queen City and had updates about TiV through semifinals. I was ready to go, I knew it was gonna be Wisconsin vs Arizona (shocking, I know but I was ready) but I figured the Hodags would take Sunburn 13-6 or something. However, I am getting text updates from my cousin, 5-3 Wisconsin, 10-8 Wisconsin, what the fuck? How is Arizona scoring? Sunburn lost to Claremont in quarters at regionals last year, what the hell am I missing? I dunno whats going on in the desert, but I am gonna find out. I want to write more, but I will save that for later. I will say, though, that like the Patriots, no team is invincible. Go Arizona, please talk to me.

Here is my original writeup. More to follow:

So Trouble in Vegas has come and gone, as has Queen City Tune Up. There were a lot of big winners in Vegas, not mention a few broken hearts. Charlotte also housed the biggest barn burner East of the Mississippi and my NUMP ballot looks like the floor of a Pedro Martinez sponsored cock fight. Here are my thoughts on each tourney.

Trouble In Vegas

First lets start off with the Cultimate extravaganza that has been dubbed the best and worst idea in the history of ultimate. I hear the weather was actually good this year which is nice considering the last two years were like Wyoming in November.

Wisconsin: I thought the 'dags were gonna steam roll folks but they definitely had their pulses raised en route to winning their 2nd tournament. They had close games against CUT (11-9) in semis and Arizona (12-11) in a capped finals that ended with a Sunburn score. I want to draw some conclusions, but like the 6-5 Wisconsin loss to CUT and Texas beating Colorado back in 2006, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

Arizona: I get a text Saturday night, "Arizona beats Florida". I know that Sunburn has a few winter wins for the ages. They knocked off the Squids at Santa Barbara a few years back but Florida?!?! They managed to do something that no one has EVER done, beat the Gators in Vegas. The next thing I know Arizona beats Cal and faces Harvard in semis, semis?!?! Ok, Vegas is weird, Arizona wins, good luck against Wisconsin. 23 points later Arizona scores it's 11th goal to end a capped game. 11 on Wisconsin? Oregon got 9 on the Hodags at nationals and a team that has never made nationals gets 11? Are you serious? I have no idea what this result means, but I will say that no one has gotten this close to Wisconsin this year and this really shows that Arizona could be significantly better than just a quarters/semis team at Regionals. My sources say the finals were exceptionally well played on both sides. I think I am one of many that is blown away with this performance and I really hope to see more of Sunburn this year. The Southwest royalty could shift significantly this year and if Arizona can keep it up, they may have a chance to finally play in a game-to-go. I wish I had more information on them, but I'm on it.

CUT: When I asked my buddy JAM (who was there) what he thought of Carleton, he had one word, "Fast". The crafty boys from Minesooota are definitely experienced, polished and on track to challenge the best in the country. It's too bad they got all this World's talent right around the time Wisconsin was on their way to an unprescedented, and un-possible, undefeated season. Tough draw in semis but they really belong this year. Their biggest advantage, their Junior World's talent, is actually 2-fold in the sense that not only are these kids spectacular, but they have all already played together and in analogous systems (ARHS and Paideia). If they can overcome the size barrier by playing crisp, mistake-free ultimate, they can challenge Wisconsin when it matters. Unlike the rest of the country, CUT is unafraid of the baby blue and if they can capitalize on Wisconsin's raw intensity with composed ultimate, they maybe the NY Giants against the NE Patriots this May.

Whitman: I am really glad someone from Washington reads my blog. Here is what Joe's Brother had to say about the Walla Walla Sweets:

Somewhat off the radar, but maybe worth keeping on eye on in 2008 is that the best high school player in the country last year, Jeremy Norden, went to Whitman and claimed a lot of other Juniors players had interest in going there as well. Plus, he said the club gets an enormous amount of support (financially and otherwise) from the school and community. He's good enough by himself to propel a team into the mix. And the RSD chatter supports the rumor that there are other solid HS standouts on the freshman line. No word on their bureaucratic recruiting (they had a paperwork related DQ last year), but if their papers are in order, this team could be THE team on the rise.

They're at TiV this weekend, so by Monday we should have a little more info on them.

Turning heads and making quarters (over Ego no less) was definitely not what I was expecting from this Pool F second seed. They have their work cut out for them and are going to need to keep it up to get out of the Northwest.

Haavard: Aside from the Ivy rivalry, I am really impressed with these these guys. They are the new Brown. Making semis by beating two hot teams in Whitman and Illinois is impressive considering what teams usually make it this far in the desert. Most NE teams play their best in the spring and seeing that Redline is getting big wins (but not against the squids, HA) when they can't even practice outside says a lot. They have stellar freshmen with Andrew Vogt and George Stubbs (injured), but Zirui Song, Dave Roebuck, and Dave Lipson are all superstars. I had the pleasure (sarcasm) of playing against them this past summer/fall when they suited up for New Noise and like Cal, their club experience is really paying off for their program. However, NE teams have a tendency to shuffle around a lot come the series. Harvard definitely has their work cut out for them in a region with the most teams fighting for a spot at nationals (Williams, Brown, Dartmouth, and Harvard) with no clear front runner.

Santa Cruz: Finally, they show up. Despite a slow start they battle back from starting 0-2, and go through UCSD to make quarters. DLK gives me far too many shout outs, but I will say the slugs finally showed why they are in contention to win the Bay Area section and come out of the NW. Vegas is cool because there are 3 days of good ultimate and several teams get a chance to do well. Illinois owned day 1, Santa Cruz had their time to shine on Saturday, and Arizona owned the Lord's day. They beat my Squids (by 1) making quarters, but got stuck with the ravenous wolves (Wisconsin). It would have been cool to see them play any other team because they might have stood a chance. Regardless, they brought themselves back to their status post Sean Ryan and have the knowledge that they can bring it to Stanford and Cal. I feel sorry for LPC because they will have to play one of these teams while the other two duke it out in semis come sectionals.

Illinois: For a team that wanted to break into the elite, they definitely did not disappoint. They managed to knock off 2 juggernaut teams in Oregon and Colorado, on the first day no less. Folks have been talking them up a lot on RSD as of late and I continually understand why. They lost in pre-quarters to Haavard, but this kooky format with 10-8 scores and 80 teams really doesn't blemish Illinois' hopes. They showed that they are #1 in the Great Lakes and have given Ryan Purcell and Will Neff an enemy to fear.

Colorado: I wanted to mention a few words about Mamabird's seemingly poor weekend. It looks like Beau is no longer wearing black and gold considering that he wasn't in Vegas for the first time in 3 years. Martin Cochran was also not in attendance but a broken foot has sidelined him only until March and if he heals alright, #17 and the rest of Colorado will be back for the series. I will say that without Beau their offense is going to have to make some serious adjustments. Jolian can't throw to himself and with Mac Taylor streaking deep as well, their handling responsibilities are going to fall on veterans like Chris Wicus.

Closing Thoughts

TiV is just as crazy as Vegas itself. Arizona 11-10 over Florida, Santa Cruz 11-10 over UCSD, Whitman 10-9 over Ego, Carleton 11-9 over Colorado, all of these scores are close/exciting, but suspect and do not paint a clear picture. There are many more positive things to take away from this than negative, though. Arizona and Harvard need confidence, and their results help them. Florida and Colorado need to know that they have weaknesses and their results help them. Whitman and Santa Cruz need to prove they belong and their results help them. UCSD and Oregon need to know that they can win but also know that they can lose and their results help them. CUT needs to know that they have got the talent and Wisconsin needs to know they can't intimidate their way to another national title and their results help them out.

Queen City Tune Up

Just when I thought I had it all figured out, UNC, Georgia, NC State, and Michigan had to go and screw it all up.

NC State: The biggest winner is obviously the winner. But damn it, where the hell did they come from?!?! They weren't at Warm Up. I didn't write about them. What the hell?!?! They played spectacular and hats off to them. They really have dropped below radar since finishing 5/8 at nationals in 2004 but they could be back in black...and red. If I had to guess, i think that they took advantage of a gassed UNC team, twice. They played them in the last round on saturday after UNC barely beat Michigan 9-8. They then played them in the finals after a 15-14 semifinal game with Georgia. I wonder if they can handle UNC at 100% and I also wonder if UNC has the depth to make it to out of the AC.

UNC: I am not sure what to say about Darkside. At 100% it looks like they are the real deal but I wonder about their legs. They made the finals but they lost to the same team twice after winning double game point matches. I think their depth has got to be an issue and this problem will not fix itself considering that Georgia is very deep and Florida has more star power. They took 2nd in the region last year so they have history on their side and I hope they can keep it up against the AC's best in Florida, Georgia and now NC State.

Georgia: Ahh, I wish you guys were going to Stanford. They sweep their pool, they dismantle Edinboro and Georgia Tech, and then WHAM, get taken out by UNC. I think behind NC State, Georgia gained the most from this tournament. The funny thing about ultimate is that unless you are challenged, you really can't see your weaknesses. I remember Furious at nationals in 2006. They raped everyone, including Chain Lightning 15-7 in semis, but their offense really wasn't tested and Sockeye took advantage in the finals. What's cool is that this is just QCTU. Georgia now knows that UNC, as well as Florida, can take them down and they will take this knowledge into practice the next 3 months. Hopefully Swanson stays healthy, but he is lucky that he plays for a very deep team.

Pitt: Delaware won the region last year but after this weekend, Pitt is definitely the aggressor. Pitt has some phenomenal talent in sophmores Chris Brenenborg (team USA) and Eddie Peters (Pike), not to mention a lot of veterans with nationals experience. They were definitely the best Metro East team in Charlotte. They beat Penn and finished ahead of Delaware, not to mention taking NC State to 12-10 in semis. However, this is just February. Keep the engines burning boys, you'll need it if you want to earn big wins for yourself and your region in May.

Michigan: Will is a great pick up but like I said, I think Michigan's performance will improve tournament to tournament. Their offense is going to have to adjust to #1 and it is no wonder that playing outside for the first time in '08 was not kind to Magnum. However, they did play UNC 8-9 (what kind of score is that) and dismantled a national caliber Delaware team 13-3. They did lose to Penn when it mattered though, but I have a feeling they may have looked past them considering they had beaten Georgia Tech 10-6 and Penn lost to Virginia in the last round on Saturday. Needless to say, I am sure they have a lot to think about back in Ann Arbor and hopefully they have the tools to put together a fight against a fired up Illinois team that had a great weekend in Vegas.

I want to reiterate how amazing NC State and Arizona played this weekend. I was expecting Wisconsin/CUT and Georgia/UNC but like Berman says, "thats why they play the game".

In the next few weeks we have two prez day tournaments, Kaimana, Hellfish Bonanza and Mudbowl. I will be watching Stanford this weekend in Hawaii and I wonder what Mike Payne has done with Bloodthirsty after they got rocked in Santa Barbara. Stay tuned, this year is just getting started.

Just my thoughts

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