Terminus Thoughts

So I know it isn't under the Cultimate umbrella, but Terminus this weekend is going to be an exciting tournament with a lot of good teams in attendance.

Tournament Teams and Format

This tournament has definitely fluctuated in team numbers as well as programs in attendance. This tournament used to be a stomping ground for the Hodags who won it last year against Pitt and the year before over Georgia. Now that Cultimate has further legitimized Stanford Invite, it looks like the 'dags are going to head West instead of South East, but no matter, the tournament field this year is still good.

What is really good about this tournament this year is that questions concerning a variety of teams will be answered. A few teams that have really had explosive Winters have been NC State (Won Queen City), Illinois (Colorado and Oregon), and Tufts (8-1 at TiV, only losing to Arizona on DGP). This weekend we will get to see if these results were flare ups or just the beginning.

The one thing that is the weirdest about Terminus this year is the format. I think the separation of the top 10 from the bottom 16 is interesting. I like how the TD wants to give the top 10 teams good games on Saturday and give the bottom 16 teams games they can win on the first day of competition. I will say that this format is risky however. For the most part, these teams are not from the same region so seeding them relative to one another is hard. When you prevent teams from bracket play early (ie no pool play) you really have to be confident in your rankings. Seeing that few of these teams have played eachother makes this tough. Tufts fell victim to this at Vegas. They went 8-1 and only lost to Arizona 11-12. Because of their seeding, this loss relegated them to 17th place preventing them from bracket play.

However, while the formats are similar, I think the TD planned this well. 6 teams get to make it out of the bottom bracket and if you don't earn a spot, odds are your probably don't deserve to be in bracket play. The one thing I will say is that I am afraid that one team from the top bracket will go 0-4 on Saturday pitting them against another top seed team. If/when they lose this game, they are out. Now is this fair? When you have separate brackets in tournaments like this, at some point you have a bottom bracket team play a top bracket team to see who gets to make Sunday. This is more or less a pre-quarters play in and it is a smart way to dodge the seeding bullet. If you got robbed by your seed and you win you'll get a chance against the better teams and if all the stars align, you will be vindicated. Opposite case for the top teams. If you get a lucky bid, you have to beat somebody to make bracket play. I make this point but with 6 teams moving up, I don't think it will be a problem. In a tournament of 26, this format is refreshing and fair. With 80 teams, some one is gonna get screwed.

Pool A - NC State, Illinois, Dartmouth, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin-WW

NC State 4-0: Both top pools are very exciting. Right now the UPA is a big fan of NC State and have them at #3 in their rankings. This is a really tough position to be in as is trying to defend an undefeated record. The only way NC State can come out on top is for them to sweep the tournament which is more or less what comes with a 1 seed. I see them potentially winning the tournament but going undefeated is going to be hard because they have a lot of different kinds of competition on Saturday. First round is against WWW who is more or less the LPC of the Midwest. They aren't the biggest high fliers but they have team chemistry and dedication (they won Div 3 natties last year). I see the Wolfpack winning but then they play Dartmouth which I think will be their first tough game. Pain Train is a scrappy team with smart handlers and great offensive flow. Sam Haynor is a great all around player and epitomizes Dartmouth's unique spirit. Drew Raines is another great player who is amazing in the air despite his smaller frame. Socks is also a great handler/defender and his offensive leadership is only eclipsed by his absolutely AMAZING blue eyes. I see NC State being faster top to bottom however and will able to play offense at a speed Dartmouth can't defend. They will generate scores however and keep NC State honest. The Georgia Tech game will probably be their 2nd most important contest behind the 1-2 game because it is against a regional rival. Recently GT has been closer (not by much) to making nationals than NC State and wins against teams like them are necessary if NC State wants to return to the show. If they can assert their dominance by remaining composed, I see them looking good for the series. The 1-2 game will be one of the better games of the Winter. Illinois had a great time in Vegas and I think a lot of people are curious to know what they can do a month later. The GL is wide open this year and if Illinois is for real, we'll see that in Atlanta. I think NC State is good but the 8-0 record was at QCTU, not exactly the most premier tournament, but I shouldn't say it isn't worth a lot. Illinois, however, did well at a premier tournament but it's not like they made semis. With that being said, it will be nice to know how these two fish from different ponds line up on one another. I think NC State is ready however and will earn the W.

Illinois 3-1/2-2: Illinois is a good team and they took advantage of some good teams while they were sleeping in Vegas. However, what really hurts them is that the teams they beat to make some noise, Colorado and Oregon, have not bounced back. If either team had done well in Palo Alto, maybe Illinois would look better, but now their best game looks like the 11-13 loss to Florida which came after Florida was eliminated. With that being said I think they are good but not as good as we thought a month ago. First game is against Georgia Tech and I like this match up. Georgia Tech is a fast AC team that is conditioned. I think Illinois is more experienced so it will make for an interesting game. I hope for Illinois' sake that they do well because to struggle this early will put their National's hopes in doubt. Next game is WWW and I think Illinois has the advantage. I am willing to bet that the two teams play similar games, Illinois is probably just better at it. Round 3 is against Dartmouth and this is the make or break game. Dartmouth has a similar 2-3ish stance in the NE that Illinois has had in the GL. They will play 2 different kinds of games but both have similar senses of entitlement and ability. They both lost close to Tide but Illinois beat Colorado. I see Illinois winning but this game either makes them 3-1 or 2-2 come days end.

Dartmouth 2-2/3-1: Their second game against Georgia Tech will be interesting and important. They will probably be coming off a loss to NC State and they will have to re-group. Nothing to really change but seeing a strong AC team will help them against another one. I think their mistakes in the NC State game will highlight chances they took and didn't take. This will be useful against a Georgia Tech team that will be close to as fast but not as well oiled. They will be able to take some deep shots and rely on young mistakes to avoid getting broken. I see their offense clicking well, they just need to avoid throwing to receivers that aren't open. Next game will be against Illinois which will be good, I just think they could use a bye before. This will be their chance to break seed and hopefully they have the legs to do it. Last round will be WWW and whatever kind of day WWW is having, Dartmouth will be ready. If WWW is suddenly turning heads Dartmouth will be ready and lucky it's the last game. If they are 0-3, Dartmouth will still be ready.

Georgia Tech 1-3: I want to see GT make a name for themselves out of the AC because they are an athletic team. They also come from the same section as Florida, Georgia, and UCF so they see a lot of competition. They did well at Warm Up and this will be their 5th tournament of the year so whatever game plan they have should be sorted out by now. I think they can edge past WWW but I would love to see them earn a win else where in pool play. Maybe Illinois if they are not as good as discussed, maybe Dartmouth if their lack of outdoor practice still presents a problem. Good luck.

Wisconsin Whitewater 0-4: I have them as 0-4 but they could do better. They will see 4 opponents from 3 different regions but I think, as opposed to Dartmouth and Georgia Tech, they will be ready for unfamiliar opponents. Their hopes will have to rely on their offense. Hopefully they can score on a team who will play great D and good offense once a turn is generated. I really want to see how they do because at some points during the year they have threatened to break into the NUMP and I want to know definitively whether or not they belong there.

Pool B - Georgia, Minnesota, Tufts, Davidson, and Williams

Georgia 4-0: I am a big Georgia fan and I think they do well this weekend. Their O and D teams both made semis at Mudbowl and I think each team will have things worked out well. First game will be against Williams and I am betting Georgia is a little concerned about Williams as a bottom seed. They met at nationals and now they are first up in pool play? The biggest problem is not that Georgia is/isn't ready, it's that no one knows what Williams will have. They beat Stanford at a soggy SB Invite, but for an encore? They could be top shelf, they could be average, we will know bright and early. I think Jojah handles them either way. They are large (in #s and size) and their depth will edge past WUFO. Next game is Tufts and this will be the toughest game of the day. Tufts is a great team thus far and has 1 loss to America's Cinderella team. Their cagey offensive threat will be 180 degrees from Jojah's brute force and it will be nice to see who wins. If Tufts were a deeper team I might give them the nod but I don't think their crafty ways can go against a sea of red and white. After a bye they play Davidson who I know nothing about. Davidson lost to UBC and Wisconsin at TiV (big surpirse) but they beat Dartmouth and regional rival Central Florida. I think Georgia's size will give them all the fire power they need however. Last game is against Minnesota and I am a little curious as to why they got the 4th seed. They did well at Mardi Gras but I think Tufts should have gotten the 2 seed in this pool. They haven't played in a tourney in over a month and I wonder if their winter legs will be ready for Georgia's endurance. Hopefully they have conditioned. I like Jojah's odds.

Minnesota 2-2: Minnesota is a good team but they aren't tested enough. They have insurmountable regional competition, so their out of region games are huge. They went 6-2 at Mardi Gras making the finals but their only win to a team at their level is Georgia Tech. I would not be surprised if they owned but I would also not be shocked if they didn't. Having Davidson as a 4th seed doesn't help me much because I don't know how this first game is going to go. Second game will be against Williams and if Minnesota is deserving they will handle WUFO. WUFO has a tendency to bring it at odd times. They didn't look that great last year until regionals so they might not be ready for Terminus. They then play Tufts and this will be another great game. If you look at their schedule Tufts beat Central Florida 11-10 and Minnesota beat Georgia Tech 11-10. Two AC teams at similar levels, I think UCF is better, and this makes this game a close one. I like the E-men. Last game will be Georgia and if Minnesota losses to Tufts, Georgia will eat them alive. If they are undefeated, the game will be close at first but I think Georgia takes them out 15-10ish.

Tufts 3-1: I am really excited to see what happens with these guys. They are a new contender in the NE (well new since 2004) and Andrew Hollingworth is a great captain who has been coached by the best. Tufts will be ready to role and their TiV results show that they can play well far from home. I wish they weren't playing Georgia first because I think they could probably use some sort of warm up before the dogs are let out. I think they put up a good second half game but still go down. I think they will handle Davidson alright because their offense will be finely tuned because Tufts is a good program with a good coach. Next they play Minnesota and, like I said, I think they win. Last game is Williams and I think they are looking forward to this one. The NE is definitely as open as it has ever been and the first step to making nationals is sizing up your regional competition. These are two teams that have duked it out in May before and hopefully Tufts' new game plan will be all they need to take out WUFO.

Davidson 1-3: I don't know much about this team but I will say traveling to Vegas is a big deal. It shows your team is committed and they did have some good wins against Claremont and Central Florida. They could be better than TiV, they could be worse. They play Minnesota first and I think each team will have something to prove. The results won't really matter because I think each will want to bring it against Tufts to either break or hold seed. I hope for their sake they can handle Williams and round 3 will be the biggest deal for Davidson. They went 6-3 at TiV, Tufts 8-1. The winner of this game will be stoked going into their final round and Davidson will need all the help they can get against the Dawgs.

Williams 0-4: Like I said, Williams brings it at weird times in the year. Last year they didn't look great at Yale Cup but they went on to make nationals a month later. I don't think they bring it now but that doesn't mean they are out of it for the year. Hopefully their young roster gets a win on Saturday so that they earn their top bracket status.

6 Pack

The teams I think will make it up to bracket play will be UCF, Cornell, Maryland, Virginia, William and Mary, and Colorado State.

I like UCF's 11th seed spot and I bet they do to. They did well for themselves in Palo Alto and I think they are in a good position to play some teams below them and to make it into bracket play on Sunday. I hope they play a 3 or 4 seed from the top pools as opposed to a 1 seed. I think they deserve at least quarters and should have gained a lot of experience from Stanford.

Cornell just had a tournament win and I think they have the confidence to play to their level. They also need composure however. They choked last year at regionals when they should have made nationals and I think this will be an exercise in pressure play.

Maryland is a good team that made the finals at Hellfish. I think they have what it takes to earn a spot on Sunday.

Virginia played well at Hellfish and Spring Tide. They aren't great but I do see them breaking away from a bottom 10 standing

William and Mary is nothing close to what they used to be but they are still a program. All of their losses at Ultimax were close (save tournament winner Notre Dame) and they also had big wins against Delaware and Central Florida at Hellfish.

I didn't want to take 11-16 so I went with Colorado State. They do well in the South, at least at High Tide, and I think they earn a leg up. Nothing great from TiV but I think they will be 5th or 6th out of the bottom bracket.

Closing Thoughts

I want to see an NC State vs Georgia final mainly because it will answer questions about the AC but I don't see it happening. One of these teams will faulter before the finals and it really could be either one. NC State has a lot of pressure on them and the last time they had pressure like this they sucked at nationals back in 2003. Georgia has also been guilty of under-performing, especially in the series, so they could slip to someone.

I would love to see Tufts make a run and if I had to chose between Georgia and NC State, I would go with Georgia mainly because they do really well here. They have played in the finals many times and this might be there chance to win it all now that that Wisconsin has bigger and better things to do.

Good luck to all teams. I wish I could still be down in the dirty south causing all sorts of Spring Break trouble. However, my SB days are over but I do have as many memories as anyone. Stay outta trouble and make sure you get all your rookies home safe.

just my thoughts

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