Southerns, Easterns and Roll Call

Outside of Centex there were 3 big tournaments that happened over the last two weekends and the results are very interesting, especially for some regions that don't get enough press, ie the Metro East, the Northeast and the Great Lakes.

Southerns

First, hats off to Dartmouth. They are really doing their job to get back to nationals, something they have not done since 2003. Sam Haynor is a weird but great guy and he is THE prototypical model of a Northeast ultimate player and I think his experience and leadership has really facilitated the formation of a truly phenomenal NE program. I also think that it is interesting that the other NE school that is getting some big wins outside the Centex bubble, Tufts, was right there with the Pain Train in the finals. I am guessing a capping situation resulted in a 12-10 win for Dartmouth but I think that Hollingworth's E-Men are a great program as well. Had the game gone to 15 like regionals will be, who knows who will come out on top. Another team that has done well despite ZERO attention is Notre Dame. Another in a slew of Great Lakes programs, the Papal Rage not only made the semis at one of the biggest tournaments of the spring, but they also won Ultimax by beating a red hot Pennsylvania team in the finals 15-12.

I think it is interesting that Notre Dame, Tufts, and Dartmouth are all doing well while their competition, Michigan, Illinois, Harvard, and Brown were all at Centex. I definitely think the Centex crowd was facing stiffer opposition, but a win is a win and confidence and composure (the two most important things in college ultimate) are still developed in this manner. As far as the Great Lakes goes, I think that Michigan is still on top. Illinois is right there and I think with Ohio State's success at Southerns as well as Roll Call, in addition to Notre Dame, I think the Great Lakes region will have one of the better regional tournaments with not only a bunch of teams close to one another but also teams that are talented and successful at the national level.

More of the same for the Northeast. Dartmouth and Tufts both look good but so does Harvard. I wonder if over confidence will play a role in regionals with Harvard feeling like they are the best in the region because of their Centex performance. If George Stubbs is back, they will play better than they already are but a peaking Dartmouth and/or Tufts team will challenge Red Line for the regional title. With Brown up and down all year, I think there are 3 teams that could come out on top (Tufts, Dartmouth or Harvard) with 2 of these 3 plus Brown taking the second bid. I have been to NE regionals a few times now and Brown always seems to do well despite their record. It's too bad Williams has dropped below radar but I think the NE is as wide open as it has been since I have been here and I hope to see some fireworks in May.

Easterns

The take home message from this tournament is that North Carolina teams do well at North Carolina tournaments. Congrats Gerics. All 4 teams in the semis were from NC (UNC, NC State, UNC-W, and Duke) and the finals was a good old fashion 15-11 barn burner between the Wolfpack and the Seamen. UNC-Wilmington is really beginning to assert themselves as an AC contender this year. Of all the AC powerhouses (Florida, Georgia, UNC, NC State, UNC-W), they have been the most consistent outside the Gators. However, they didn't go to Centex and the other 4 did. I was really disappointed that they passed up Austin after a great showing in Palo Alto, but I am sure it is tough to travel so much for ultimate. I only know of 1 kid on the team, Rusty Ingold-Smith, who not only went to the same high school as Jacob Goldstein, the Mahoney's, and Jasper Hoitsma, but he has also suited up with Slow White for the lat two years and his experience is top shelf. I think he is staying in NC to play for Ring this summer and will be missed by the Boston crowd. Either way, his speed on offense is really frustrating for defenders and his acceleration and bids really make him invaluable on D. I would bet he plays a large role in Wilmington's relatively shallow roster and would like to see them make it back to Nationals. However, I wonder if their lack of series experience will hurt them against teams that have been to the show routinely over the last few years, namely UNC, Georgia and, of course, Florida.

NC State is a real question mark for me. I think they are a team with the talent to take out everyone save Florida in their region, they just need to bring their best to every game. They seem to like the hammers and the deep ball as well as athletic D, which is a bad combination against polished teams like Florida. I also imagine them having trouble against good shallow teams because in a single game where endurance and legs aren't an issue, a few careless turnovers can really change the tides. I think they need to focus on their composure more than anything else and if they can play their best game more often than not, I think they have a shot at UNC-W. Both teams have history on their side, but I think given the chance, NC State needs to use their depth against UNC-W. This gets tough however, especially in poor weather. If regionals is perfect weather wise, I think NC State should throw out line after line of fresh cutters to exhaust UNC-W and despite not taking half, I think the Wolfpack can win in the long run, especially if they bring their A game.

I think UNC suffered a setback with their loss to UNC-W, but I think they were probably still beat from Centex. They are in an interesting situation because they have done well when NC State has not and vice versa. Like UNC-W and Florida, I think poor weather favors them because they are a patient and composed team. However, I think talent and firepower could be issues. They don't have a whole lot to contest teams at their level and rely on top to bottom good ultimate to win games. With all-stars like Ulty Arnie and Rusty, teams like NC State and Wilmington have the ability to put up points and breaks that UNC cannot make up. I think in poor weather they have got a shot but only against NC State. I would imagine a small nucleus like Wilmington would be spectacular in the wind and UNC's only hope is that their depth can overcome. However, Darkside does play well in the series. I had Georgia pegged for 2nd seed out of the AC last year and UNC came and snatched it away. This maybe that JoJah had yet to play their best disc (they made quarters at nationals and lost to Finals bound Colorado), or UNC was peaking at just the right time. Either way, I think Carolina sectionals will be one of the better sectional tournaments along with the Bay Area section with teams like Stanford, Santa Cruz, Cal and LPC all looking good with no clear front runner.

Roll Call

I was glad to see another big tourney spring up because it means good teams are playing each other and the playoff picture gets clearer and clearer. Pitt obviously had a spectacular showing by taking out Ohio State in the Finals 15-12. I have gotten some criticism for not talking up En Sabah Nur, and now I will try and shut them up. First I think their win against Wisconsin was a huge step in changing a great Metro East team to just, a great team. Going into a big but small school heavy tournament with a win like that under your belt really lets a team know that they can do it all. However, I wonder if a little over confidence hurt them in round one because they lost to one of their biggest regional challenges, Penn, on double game point. They did battle back and despite this loss took out Ohio State 13-7 and took the pool. Sunday would be a continuation of a great tourney and they managed to secure 4 wins in a row to take the tournament. I think it is interesting that the two teams in the Finals were also in the same pool, Ohio State and Pitt, and it goes to show you that seedings are irrelevant if you are good enough. I think Pitt needs to stay focused because the Metro East isn't theirs, yet. They didn't get another chance against Penn this past weekend and have yet to play Cornell, who had a great weekend at Huck of the Irish. I like Pitt to take the region but they are going to have to earn it like everybody else. They didn't take it last year and despite going to Nationals routinely, they have also routinely been #2 in their region. This year they are #1 but either Cornell or Penn could play spoiler for them. I don't see them missing out on Boulder, but they will need to play their best to come out #1 in the ME.

Ohio State is really playing great disc this year despite not playing in an NCUS or Cultimate tournament. They are another in a series of Great Lakes teams that really want to make the show this May. They took advantage of Michigan and Michigan State's drop off in ability last year and earned the chance to play at home on Memorial Day. That experience will really help them against Illinois and Magnum. I think Michigan's play at Centex really puts them at #1 in the region despite Illinois' superb showing, especially against Stanford and Florida. However, Ohio State really hasn't had the chance to face the best in their region recently and could still challenge either team for one of the spots to natties. I think the Great Lakes region will be one of the best series tournaments this year because all three teams will be peaking at the right time and each could make it to the A bracket come Saturday at Nationals.

I am really curious about Harvard. They are arguably the front runner from the Northeast but they are not as far ahead from the rest of region as they would like. They are definitely good, but they are going to need to stay focused every game to make it to Boulder. Their quarters loss to Penn tells me two things, 1) Penn is the Davidson of the 2008 College Ultimate Season. They are playing GREAT spoiler ultimate with wins against Michigan, Pitt, Harvard, and Cornell. They are definitely #2 in the ME and I hope Pitt is ready for them. 2) Harvard can be beaten if they look past their opponent. This is what I see potentially happening at NE regionals. Harvard comes out strong Saturday and draws the lowest seed Sunday. This could potentially be a team like Boston College or Wesleyan, two teams that are scrappy, good and would LOVE to catch an over confident team sleeping. I am not saying that they lose but they could end up going to 15s or 16s just like Wesleyan did to Williams last year. This could frustrate Red Line and put them against a red hot Tufts or Dartmouth team who could take advantage and send Harvard to the back door bracket. This would suck for the Cambridge boys because they would then have to go through a confident Brown team and the loser of Tufts/Dartmouth. This situation would favor Tufts and Dartmouth because I think the two would prefer to face each other in the finals over either Brown or Harvard because they are in similar boats. Neither has been to nationals in recent years and Dartmouth has issues with winning games to go. A Tufts/Dartmouth finals would be awesome and I hope Dartmouth would win because I think Tufts could take out Harvard or Brown but Dartmouth has a tendency to slip once they lose their first chance to nationals. Long story short, if every one of these 4 teams' play their game, there are 6 equal probabilities for 2 teams going to Nationals.

Closing Thoughts

I think the series this year is going to be the best since I have been following ultimate. Almost every region is wide open and I am really excited to see how April and May pan out. The Bay Area and Carolina sections are going to be great because we will get to see where some of the best in the country line up one another. The Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northwest Regions are all COMPLETELY wide open and have more parity than the NBA western conference.

Despite all this hype however, Nationals in Boulder is basically going to be Nationals 2006. It is Florida's to lose and Wisconsin's to win. The Gators are going to be #1 in the NUMP this week and will stay that way until Nationals. Wisconsin will probably be relegated to #2 and as long as they keep a lid on Minnesota and CUT they can get comfortable there. Gibson is unreal and I think he can lead a great campaign in Colorado. However, he couldn't make the finals without TG last year and in good weather the Hodag depth is going to be UNREAL. I would love to see Colorado, Michigan, Arizona, or god knows who else, make a run in 6 weeks but I think the Blue Caller rivalry will make another appearance in the finals.

just my thoughts

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