Stanford Invite Preview

This weekend marks, what I believe to be, the biggest tournament of the year and the third installment of the NCUS excitement, the Stanford Invite. True, Centex is by far the hardest tournament, but it is too hard. The format at Centex is not representative of Nationals and while Stanford isn't exactly parallel, it is closer and has more or less the same crop of teams (minus Florida and Georgia). With that in mind I thought I would give a run down of what I think will go down in Palo Alto this weekend.

Weather

Lets start with mother nature. According to weather.com, this weekend should be nice in the bay area, at least Saturday. Some showers Sunday but nothing catastrophic. Overcast, mid 60s, sounds like perfect ultimate weather to me. I only start with weather because it has been a major factor in years past and it looks to be a non-entity in 2008.

Pool A - 1) Wisconsin 2) UNC 3) UCSC 4) Whitman 5) UCF

Hodags 4-0: Sorry, Wisconsin is going to be ready and they will sweep. Their first game could be their closest. The boys from Whitman had a great TiV, and their Juniors talent will get the opportunity to show that they are either the real deal, or yet another card in a deck of flare up teams. I am most interested in the Central Florida game. The Dogs of War are a team that I like a lot, mainly because they put together good media on you tube. They are a solid AC team, but they are lucky to make SI and deserve the 5 seed. I would really like it if they brought their A game against Wisconsin, meaning just play not scared (and that goes for everyone the Hodags play). Take a lesson from Arizona, play your game, not theirs. Stay focused on scoring and taking advantage of Wisconsin mis-ques. They will be lucky to get 8 however. Third round is against UCSC. This is a really favorable match-up for Wisconsin. It seems like Santa Cruz is a lot like my alma matter, they have the ability to be good, but sometimes their heads get in the way of their success. Again, I hope they can stay focused against really intense defense and improve on the 7-13 routing they got in Vegas. The 1-2 game will be nice but it could be the same as pool play at Nationals last year where Wisconsin won 15-6. I believe people (including myself) think UNC is better than they actually are. NC State took them out twice definitively and were easily the best team at Queen City.

Darkside 3-1: They are the 2nd seed and if they are going to stay that way, their first game is the most important game of the day. I have no idea what Whitman is capable of, but I will say that UNC has been here before. They have done well at Stanford in the past but Whitman has nothing to lose, a favorable position for any ultimate team. I will go with UNC because I think Whitman doesn't have enough weapons. They did well while under the radar but now folks are going to be gunning for them. I think they have the ability to do well, but they are going to have to rely on something else besides Jeremy Norden's hucks. They then face the Slugs. I think Santa Cruz has yet to prove themselves. A double game point win over UCSD on a rookie mistake made all the difference in the world at TiV and I don't know if they have what it takes to win big games against squads outside their region. UNC is a team they haven't faced much and they will have to rely on their abilities, not the mental state of their opponent. Third game will be against a regional foe in UCF, but I think UNC will handle the DOW. They are experienced and I think UCF will have their hands full against the best competition they have ever seen in a pool play situation. I think this game will give us the first inclination of what UNC will have at regionals. A 15-10 win or better is good for UNC but if UCF takes them to 15-13 or any sort of cap situation, I think UNC is gonna be sitting out come Nationals.

Whitman 1-3: I am sorry, but I don't know if Whitman has the composure to put together another great campaign. They had a great Vegas, but duplicating those results is going to be really hard. I see them giving Wisconsin a game (which will get Wisconsin angry and focused) but their depth and inexperience will hurt them as the day wears on. They are set to face Santa Cruz after UNC and Wisconsin and if they are the real deal, they will win this game. In essence, this it the only game that matters for them in pool play. No one expects them to beat Wisconsin and against an out of region team (UNC) no one will fault them if they come up short. However, if they want to break into the good ol boys club known as the NW, they better be able to take it to a regional bubble team. The outcome of this game will really affect the last round. If they take UCSC close (win or lose) they are in deep shit against UCF. UCF likes the deep game and they are good in the air. Whitman, regardless of record, will be gassed come game 4 and hopefully they have enough energy after their bye to show that they belong. Hopefully they won't be focusing on an 0-3 record during their time off, because that will only scare a young and inexperienced team.

Santa Cruz 2-2: I see Santa Cruz gaining some confidence early against UCF. Both teams have a lot of regional competition but I think Santa Cruz is closer to the top of the NW than UCF is to the AC. UCSC is also playing more or less at home and will want to start the tourney off well. I think this is UCF's first trip to SI and I think jitters will play a big part in their performance, at least early. I think their other win will come against Whitman, but they could just as easily go to seed 1-3 and Whitman 2-2. I think a lot of people are interested to see what the Walla Walla boys put together.

Central Florida 0-4: This is their first trip to THE INVITE and I think it will be more of a learning experience than anything else. Despite a rough day, they will learn where they are vulnerable and if they are going to have a chance in the AC, tough lessons like this are a must. Good luck against UNC, if you only bring it once on Saturday, do it against a team you know you'll see again.

Pool B - 1) Carleton 2) Stanford 3) California 4/5) UCSD/UNC-W

CUT 4-0: Carleton has looked razor sharp and aside from Wisconsin, it seems that they can handle anyone. They had a loss to EGO at TiV but 9-11 is not a score I would hang my hat on. They are a unanimous #2 in the NUMP and for good reason. If they are going to lose their top seed status, it will be in their first game however. I have a tough time staying objective about Stanford, but Bloodthirsty this weekend will be significantly better than Santa Barbara. They are at home and they never disappoint at SI. I think their low seed really helps them out and their experience will be a nice match up against CUT's youth/talent. They play UNC-W second and considering that the Seaman haven't really been dominant since Warm Up, I doubt we are gonna see any fireworks. Third game is against UCSD and I am curious to know how my squidies do. They have done well against CUT in the past and they went 9-12 at TiV. I think CUT is wayyy to deep for UCSD to handle though and this late in the day, I think they will dominate in the first half and play their younger guys late in the game for a non-representative 15-11ish score. The 1-2, as the seedings indicate, will be the 2nd worst/3rd best 1-2 game. The difference between CUT and UGMO is huge and the score will show that. I think Cal has depth, which they'll need, but I don't know if their defense can handle endless lines of small, fast, razor sharp flatballers.

UGMO 2-2: If I were on Cal, I would be reluctant to have a 2nd seed. What makes this weird is that I think their first game is against UCSD because the Cal/Stanford game is the showcase game at 7p. Their one and only game against the Squids was a 9-13 loss in Santa Barbara. I think these two teams are very similar in the sense that they can both be great but both be not. I think UGMO has a greater probability of coming out ready, but I have been surprised by my undergrad buddies before. Depending on how this game goes, it really will set the tone for the rest of the day. With a win they will have the confidence to play UNC-W to their ability. With a loss, who knows? UGMO will feel like they deserve the 2 seed if they take out UCSD and I think they will. However, a non-regional match up favors UNC-W because they have nothing to lose. I don't think the Seaman win this game, but they will have played UCSD and depending on that game outcome and how they come out after a bye, they could have the intensity to give Cal a game.

Stanford 3-1: Round 2 will be the best game of the day (except for maybe Santa Barbara/Arizona). Before the season started Stanford and CUT would have both been 1 seeds and this could theoretically have been a semis game. Instead, Stanford sucked at SB and hasn't played another college team since. If I were in Palo Alto, I would stake out a spot for this game early. I see two possibilities, Stanford comes out hard and gives them a great game, very similar to the last round of pool play at Nationals. However, with that game in mind, I think a second possibility is more likely. CUT hates Stanford right now. They lost to them on double game point the last time they played and are ready for THIS game. If they lose every other game at this tournament but win this one, SI will have been worth the trip. I think Stanford's program is great but they have lost soo much talent. Sherwood is one of the best in the country but he is going to have to really have a game (which he probably will, I just wonder if it will be enough). This Stanford team is as close to a non-faceless army as I have seen since I have been watching them, with Sherwood being a front runner for a Callahan nominee. However, Tom James, Schlag, and Ezra are great role players, not to mention youngin after youngin who are going to get Ds, and NOT drop the disc. CUT is ready though and they'll win. If they go up big early they may keep the pedal to the metal, and I hope they do, because Stanford has a way of creeping back. However, they will have to remember that there are 4 pool play games but considering that this will be each team's first contest, it will be the game to watch Saturday. After a game that could be a semis game at Centex or Nationals, Stanford will play the Carleton role against UCSD in round 3. They lost to the squids at Santa Barbara and I am sure they took offense to that. It was the first time UCSD beat Bloodthirsty and I don't see a repeat performance. Stanford will want to win this game big and their depth and focus will hurt UCSD's inexperience and top heavy roster. They may trade at 2's and 3's, maybe even 4's, but I think Stanford will take half 8-5ish, come out hard in the second half and then rest their exhausted starters for a 15-10 win. After a much needed bye they will face UNC-W. I think UNC-W will come into this game 0-3, maybe 1-2. Stanford will be 1-1 and will be ready to take it to the Carolina boys. Carolina teams are notorious for being hot heads and Stanford is anything but non-composed. This favors Bloodthirsty a lot and they will have what it takes to win.

The showcase game will be very good, mainly for Stanford. This is an arena they are very comfortable with and I think Cal will have the shakes. I think the best on Cal are more or less role players which isn't good. I think Cal's offense will have to be able to play D because D is what Stanford does best. After a sick layout D, will UGMO's O-line be able to prevent the break? Mike Payne will have the boys in red and white ready, and if Cal is going to win they are going to have to do it in the air. Stanford is little and Cal has enough height to get a favorable mismatch after Sherwood and Ezra take out deep threats #1 and #2. If Cal can mix it up, they have a chance, but that is what Stanford does best. Stanford isn't a faceless army anymore but they want to remain on top of the Bay Area section and the NW region and I think they bring it under the lights.

UCSD 1-3/0-4: I am not sure what the Air Squids will do this weekend. They have talent but not depth. I think the 4-5 game will be good, not unlike everyother 4-5 game and considering it is game #1, it is put up or shut up. UCSD hasn't won a game at Stanford since 2006, where they won their pool, and will want to win this game. It will be each team's chance to win their one and only for the day, and I think star power will play the biggest role. Considering that it is game #1, I think the lines will be loaded, which can/will hurt them in subsequent rounds, but this is a game neither team wants to lose. I don't know what will happen, but I have loyalties and I hope my Squids earn the W.

UNC-W 1-3/0-4: The Seaman are one of many rocks in the NUMP's shoes. They did well at Warm Up, not so well at Queen City, and then they won a small Pres Day tournament in NC. They are a question mark in most circles and this is their chance to turn heads. They have their spot secured at Centex and hopefully they play like it. I wish I had insightful commentary, but all I can say is that the 4-5 game in this pool is a total toss up. If UNC-W wins strong, they may have a chance at Cal and that will make an already great year all that much more exciting.

Pool C - 1/2) Oregon/Colorado 3/4)Texas/LPC 5) Brown

I never thought I would see the day where Colorado would not only be at Stanford but they would be seeded behind Santa Barbara, Arizona and Texas. First and foremost, this pool is a complete crap shoot and I will try and keep my justifications short, because they are anything but set in stone. This is also definitely a pool where you may see a 1 seed with a loss and a 5 seed with a win.

Texas 2-2: I first want to say that I have no idea what Texas is capable of. Yes they won what is left of Pres Day (with a loss) but they weren't spectacular at Mardi Gras and I don't think they deserve a 1 seed. However, they don't have the blemishes to deny them a 1 seed so they have enough rope to hang themselves. First game is against Colorado and I think they will have their hands full. One advantage that Colorado always has is that every team is somewhat afraid/intimidated by them, how can they not be? With that said, I think Texas will try really hard to not lose, as opposed to trying to win. The game that I think people should remember, as far as Colorado goes, is their game against Carleton at TiV. Yes they lost but they also went down 9-11, which to me isn't much of a score. If that Colorado team comes to Stanford, and I think they will, they will have a chance. Weather will help Mamabird, but depth favors the YEE-HA boys. Texas will produce line after line of 6+ footers and with Mac Taylor and Jolian on #1 and #2, there may be mismatches elsewhere on the field. Another thing to remember is that with College Ultimate the crisper offense usually wins. Grip and rip won't work in good weather because the smarter team will capitalize and gain breaks here and there leaving the other team no time to come back. Colorado has a game plan that they have been using for a decade and it has gotten them 3 finals appearances and 1 national title. Texas has yet to get past quarters. With that being said I think Colorado has the advantage in this first game, but it will not be the last we hear from Texas. Their second game is against Brown and I think they'll cruise. This is the first time Brown has suited up this year and I don't know what they'll do without Colin Mahoney against a tough team. This will be Texas' time to get back at Brown after getting pwned 15-8 in pool play back in 2005 circa Josh Zipperstein. I am not sure about LPC. I remember beating them when they had Robot back when I captained Squid Lite back in 2004. Now they have really made a name for themselves winning Div 3 nationals in 2006 and making SI. However, I don't see them beating Texas, a team with depth and experience. The 1-2 game will be good, but I think Oregon has got the advantage. They are composed and all they have to do is stay within themselves. Texas is going to have to play a game they never have before and I don't see it happening against Stout, Becker, Janin, and the rest of Ego.

Oregon 3-1: It seems like either Ego or Colorado should be the 1 seed but they have blemishes. The day starts off red hot against Colorado and I think Colorado wins this one. Colorado has done a lot of thinking over the last month and I think they can come out early and win. Maybe they don't have the legs to carry them through Sunday but I think Oregon will have their hands full with their offense. After a close loss, I think they keep it together and win the rest of their games. LPC is experienced but athletically and talent-wise, I don't see them lining up against a storied NW power house and national contender. After a bye they should be able to handle Brown because like Brown they have smart players on offense but I think their depth and defense will get them the breaks they need to win. Last game will be the 1-2 and I think Texas chokes, sorry guys. They have a tourney win under their belt but they weren't at Vegas and I think the tempo of the game will favor Oregon.

Colorado 3-1: I think Colorado is angry. They know they should be better than this and like I said, I think they come out early against Oregon. After taking out Texas in a long game, I think we will see the upset of the tournament, LPC over Colorado. People like to read about upsets and this is mine. I think Colorado will look past LPC at a familiar foe in Brown and with nothing to lose LPC will take chances on offense and take advantage of a lack of focus on Mamabird's part. After getting shocked, Colorado is pissed and takes it out on Brown. I think after their 2005 loss in the finals, Colorado always likes sticking it to the NE boys. They go back to the hotel 3-1 and depending on differential, they may be back at 8am or 9:45am.

LPC 2-2: I think LPC fights everyone tooth and nail. They have experienced players that no one knows about and I think they will frustrate teams like Colorado. I think they come out fast and hard against a conservative dump swing Brown team and get excited early. I think Oregon takes them out easily and they rest their best in preparation for THE upset of Saturday against Colorado. After leaving it all on the field against Mamabird, Texas' depth runs up and down on them but they get a last round bye and start the drinking early.

Brown 0-4: I think Brown is happy to make Stanford but they are going to have to do well to be here in 2009. Without Mahoney, they will need everything out of Mike Vandenburg who does have A TON of experience. However, I think top to bottom, they have talent gaps that will have them struggling and their 3-7 will get walked all over. I see them getting close to LPC, but thats as close as it gets to a win on Saturday.

Pool D - 1) Arizona 2) UCSB 3/4) UBC/Claremont 5) Pitt

Black Tide 3-1: I don't think Tide deserves to be #3 in the country but that doesn't mean they don't deserve to be a 1 seed. I think they will take out Pitt easily because they have composure and Pitt's two crowning achievements this year are two close losses, Georgia 12-13 and NC State 10-12, both at Queen City Tune Up. Their next game will be against Claremont, a team that is close to beating Tide come series time, but a team that hates them. I can see Claremont getting frustrated in a rivalry game with NOTHING at stake. Tide will take advantage of mis-ques and earn the breaks they need. They will then face UBC who is definitely better than I thought they would be after losing Oscar and Morgan. I don't see them taking out a deep Tide team, but they will get points and make Tide play longer than they want. The last game of the day will be against Arizona and I think Sunburn takes Tide out. I think Arizona, like Tide, can play well under pressure but they have better personnel and synergy. Their performance at TiV shows that with pressure comes focus and if they are healthy, they can take it to the best. I think Arizona shows again that they are the team to beat in the Southwest and takes the pool in the best 1-2 game of the day.

Arizona 4-0: I think Arizona will do very well this Saturday. They only lost 2 games at Pres Day and I think that has to do with the fact that they were playing in their 3rd tournament in a row. Fools Fest happened before TiV and before they could get past the soreness, they traveled to San Diego and played 11 games and won 9. When healthy, I think they can handle a lot. Pitt and UBC will not present much of a challenge because Arizona's synergy will be more than these teams can handle. After a bye, they will face Claremont, who will be coming off a frustrating loss to Santa Barbara. Sunburn will capitalize and by this point have worked out all the necessary kinks to be ready for Tide. I see them going up 1 or 2 breaks early and going point for point in a game that will be watched by many. They will have as much support in Palo Alto as they had in Vegas, because everyone will want them to win. Hopefully it pans out.

UBC 2-2/1-3: UBC is a tough one. The only game that really matters is the first one against Claremont and it is the one game I am not sure about. I think they lose to Arizona and Tide, but take out Pitt peripheral to this game. I wish I knew more about them.

Claremont 2-2/1-3: The Brain Eaters are good and they don't get enough attention. They have won the qualifier before and this is their second time clawing their way into SI. They are ripe for some surprise wins and I think Pitt and UBC are on the chopping block. They face the Thunderbirds first and I really want to know what happens here. If Claremont is going to make semis at Regionals, this will be a stepping stone. Teams that are trying to break into Nationals must always show what they can do to non-regional opponents first. If they can take out a solid NW team, they will be looking good come spring. Either way however, I see them taking out Pitt and earning at least 1 solid win on the first day of competition.

Pitt 0-4: Pitt is a good team at ME regionals and I feel like thats about it. Yes they made semis at Queen City, but they lost and they played Georgia to double game point, but they lost to them as well. I think there are still a ton of questions associated with non-regional opponents when it comes to Pitt and until they record a win like Delaware did against Florida, the ultimate community will still question their ability at tournaments at this level. I will say that they do have a ton of young talent with Sophmores like Eddie Peters and Chris Brenenborg who both play for Pike. The team also has a lot of nationals experience, but their pool is filled with teams that are close to nationals and only don't make nationals because the teams ahead of them are making semis come Memorial Day. Good luck to you guys. I am more than happy to eat my words.

Closing thoughts

I think most people want a CUT/Wisconsin final and I think on paper, Wisconsin will win again. However, I am hoping for upsets and I will leave my bracket write up till after the tournament. Enjoy boys, I wish I were there. Florida, Georgia, take notes.

just my thoughts

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