Centex Preview: A Spectator's Guide

This weekend is the God Father 2 of ultimate tournaments, Centex. There was talk of power pools and what not but I am glad to see that the TD's have gone back to the original 4 pools of 6 format that we have all come to love and hate. There are a lot of ways I could potentially put together a preview and I thought I would go with what games I am actually going to watch and why.

Round 1: Arizona vs Colorado and Carleton vs Georgia
Hands down the most exciting game in the first round is Arizona vs Colorado. First off, it could be the Southwest Regional Finals and this year it could be Colorado that gets to veg out in late May. For Arizona, this is their chance to again show that they are the real deal this year. One would think Stanford would have been that chance for Sunburn but without Kershner, a lot of folks have jumped to explain their quarters loss to Texas. With Joey back, Arizona could be better than ever.

In addition Colorado could have Martin Cochran back. Martin has been a dominant defensive threat for Colorado for many years and his consistency and experience is something that Mamabird has been without all season due to a broken foot. However, his contribution will be along the same lines as Jolian's and Mac Taylor's, a great deep threat both on the offensive and defensive side of the disc. This is not where Colorado is weak. Colorado needs handlers and with Martin in the mix, it will be another option for Jolian to go to, but I think he would rather BE the option instead of throwing to one. I would like to think that as a 5th year Martin could play somewhat of a handler role, but I think Colorado's best option is to have a mixture of handler/cutter roles for their 3 main deep threats (Jolian, Mac, and Martin). More or a less a three man set where one is cutting, one is handling and one is streaking to the endzone. Lastly, I am not convinced Colorado is out of the picture. They have been so dominant for so long and their Saturday record at Centex is an unheard of 18-1, with the one loss almost being on purpose because Catt benched a few tartee starters. I think Martin will be a big addition, and considering that it's the first round, Colorado will be fresh. I don't know if they can last all 5 rounds but round 1 will be exciting.

I want to catch the first half of this game because it could very well be one sided. After 12-15 points, this game could be already decided. Regardless, I want to jump to another game, CUT vs JoJah.

This game is a rematch of Nationals where 5th seeded CUT was upset by a 9th seeded Georgia. Georgia has been good this year but they have only played in one NCUS tournament, Florida Warm Up and they made the Finals. They could have had their chance to prove their worth at Terminus but Mother Nature had other plans. A semis exit at QCTU and a split squad loss in the finals to Michigan at Mudbowl leaves me with more questions than answers.

CUT still has a lot to prove. They had a great weekend in Vegas but their Stanford results were poor. They edged out Stanford which I expected, but their roster was whittled down to 12 by Sunday afternoon. With Lindsley and the other Junior tryouts back they will have added depth, which they desperately need, but I wonder if it will be enough to last the marathon that is Saturday at Centex. I am also extremely curious to know what will happen between the big Southern Boys and the quick Junior World's talent.

Round 2: NC State vs Michigan, Santa Cruz vs Georgia Tech, and Texas vs UNC

Ambitious I know, but I want to see as many teams as possible and round 2 is a busy round.

First NC State and Michigan. I am interested in this game for a variety of reasons. NC State is still undefeated. They won A game at Terminus under suspect circumstances and while I am willing to believe that they can be a top 5 team, I am not yet convinced. Plus, I have never really seen NC State play and I want to see Ulty Arnie suit up for his actual team as opposed to Voltron.

I am also interested in Michigan. I have watched Ryan Purcell run himself ragged for Michigan for several years and I am really curious to know what sort of impact Will Neff is having on Magnum. Will has been noted for shutting down phenomenal players like Beau Kittredge, and I am curious to know what he can do on D and what Michigan has him doing on offense.

This will probably be a scramble like round 1. Catch the first half of this game and spend the second half of the round trying to catch 2 more games.

Santa Cruz vs Georgia Tech is a game I am interested in for a few reasons. For starters, it is one of the better 5/6 games because both Santa Cruz and Georgia Tech have similar standings in their respective regions, around 5th as I figure it. Santa Cruz is looking up at Stanford, UBC, Cal and maybe Oregon, while Georgia Tech is looking up at Florida, Georgia, NC State and UNC. A contest between these two teams will show people like myself, what they are capable of and this will be a game that could go down to the wire, always fun for us fans. Plus I have not seen much of either team over the years. The last time I saw anything of Georgia Tech was back in 2006 when they almost beat Florida in Vegas and considering that they were spectacular athletes then, I am curious to know how their program is coming along.

As far as Santa Cruz goes, the last time I saw them was back in 2004 when we played them at the Stanford Qualifier. They have developed a lot and are getting back to their mid-90's days. Plus, I really want to meet DLK. We seem to agree on a variety of ultimate topics and I am curious to know what he is like in real life.

Lastly, Texas vs UNC. I am really curious about Texas. So far they have no blemishes on their season and have had strong performances at Pres Day and Stanford. Stephen Presley is also a player I would like to watch. I took a close look at some UVTV footage and was really impressed with his break throws and his give and go style behind the disc. He is in the callahan discussion but as a handler he has a long road to march down. This will be his round to stun me on Saturday.

Darkside is also a team that I have liked for a number of years, ever since their run at Stanford Invite back in 2004. Zack Washburn was a great UNC player and I am curious to know what they can do now. I also think that UNC and Texas will play similar athletic grip and rip ultimate and that should prove to be exciting to watch. In looking at the rest of the pool, I think the UCSB game could also be interesting because they were the only team that beat Texas at Pres Day. In addition, the UBC re-match will be spectacular but I have other plans for the 1 vs 2 round.

Round 3: Oregon vs Cal and Lunch

I wish the Texas/UNC game was in this round but it isn't and considering I am hypoglycemic it is probably good that there is only one game I am drawn to.

The UGMO vs EGO game will be epic. It could the 2/3 game at Regionals and despite the fact that some folks don't like going all the way to Texas to play a regional rival, this game will be good for both teams. I am curious to see Cal's offense in real life. I have talked about it some, but I still have yet to witness it. Seeing Dusty Becker in action will also be a treat. I have read a lot about the trio of Becker, Janin and Stout but the only game I saw of theirs at Nationals last year was against Wisconsin which was obviously not much fun for the boys in green. In any event, hopefully the first half of this game is exciting because I want the second half to be spent at Chipotle. Matty?

Round 4: Illinois vs Minnesota and UBC vs UCSB

The Illinois vs Minnesota game will be awesome for a variety of reasons. Illinois is quietly setting themselves up to take the Great Lakes region this year and I think they are the biggest challenge for Michigan. I don't know much about them but after watching Michigan I am going to want to size up Magnum's competition.

As for Minnesota, they have a rough spot. They are in the one region that has #1 and #2 pretty much locked up. I think they would prefer to be in the Great Lakes, at least that way they'd have a chance at Nationals this year. In any event, I think Illinois poses the closest match-up for them in this pool and will be a great game. I think Santa Cruz would also be a good match-up but the two teams will probably never see each other again and I am sure there is at least some history between these two upper mid-west teams.

The UBC vs UCSB game will be awesome because it will be a re-match of Stanford Invite. A lot of folks don't like Pool D because there is a lot of rematches and regional rivals in it, but I like it for parity. Tide is definitely better than they have been playing and UBC is riding momentum they have not seen since 2005. Tide also got the better of the Thunderbirds in Palo Alto and I am curious to know if a 1-3 Tide team is actually better than a 3-1 UBC team. In any event, I will get the chance to do some scouting and hopefully it's a good game.

Round 5: Stanford vs Florida

As if there was going to be any doubt. This game is probably the best game of the day and the only thing that can screw it up are injuries, so guys be careful. This game is a re-match of semis back in 2006 when Gehret tore Bloodthirsty a new one, 15-7. I don't think they have played since, but this game will be exciting for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, each team is in a similar performance spot. Florida had a great Warm Up and actually a great Vegas trip (8-1 with a DGP loss to a finals team), they just got unlucky. They then went on to make the Finals at Club Terminus and are now ready to show why they are better than a 7th seed. Likewise, Stanford had a forgettable Santa Barbara Invite, but got their shit together at Kaimana and were ready to ball come their home tournament. I think they are deserving of their 1 seed status, but I think they got an unlucky draw with Florida. I think Florida is the #2/3 team in the country, behind Wisconsin and February-Carleton. This 1/2 game could/should be a semis or at least quarters caliber game but because of the weirdness of 2008, we get to see them in pool play. I am really excited to see what Stanford's fundamentals will do against Florida's explosive offense. However, specific match-ups are uninteresting because few players on each team play the same kind of game. I think the handler match-ups will be the best (ie Schlag and Van Auken), but Sherwood vs Gibson or Ezra vs Brodie will definitely favor the Gators. Despite this, I think Stanford has a chance with their 3-7 against a relatively shallow Florida team. In any event, NO ONE GET HURT!!!

If possible, it would be nice to catch either Carleton vs Arizona or Texas vs UBC but I will have already seen all 4 teams by this round.

I have left out 6 teams. Sorry guys, no offense, but I think watching 18 different teams isn't bad. Plus I will get enough Wisconsin on Sunday anyway.

Quarters Predictions

Pool A: Wisconsin and yikes. This is a tough pool. For me, Oregon and NC State are real question marks. I like that we will FINALLY get to see what NC State is made of outside their region. Oregon has some tough games and I wonder if their depth will get them the 3/4 wins they will need to move on. I think Wisconsin goes 5-0 but you could see a lot of 3-2's in this pool. Based on differential it could be Ego, the Wolfpack, or, my hopeful, Magnum.

Pool B: Stanford and Florida. I think these two teams are definitely in a class above the rest in this pool. Florida sunk themselves by dodging Stanford Invite and deserve to be a 2 seed but they are better than it and could go 5-0. I dunno how Gibson and his buddies last 5 pool play games at Centex, but they do. Stanford is also ready and waiting. Florida is their one threat in this pool and I think their experience and "program" status gets them past out of region competition. The Santa Cruz game will be interesting but I think Bloodthirsty has more depth and considering they made Finals last year at Centex and Stanford Invite two weeks ago, they look good to make it out of the pool.

Pool C: UBC and Texas. This pool is the biggest question mark for the tournament. Texas has looked good but I am still not convinced. UBC, Tide, and UNC all could make runs at the 1 or 2 spot out of this pool and I think this will be a battle royal. I think UBC and Texas both go 4-1 with the Thunderbirds winning the 1 vs 2 game but I see them getting caught sleeping earlier in the day.

Pool D: Arizona/Carleton and Georia. I think between Arizona and Carleton, one is not going to hold seed. They each have played great but there is a ton of pressure on both to duplicate past results and make up for poor ones. I think one of them does well on Saturday but just one. I want to see Arizona go 5-0/4-1, but they could slip and end up going 3-2 or worse. More of the same with Carleton. They might come out hot early but injuries and their depth could be an issue come Rounds 4 and 5. I think Georgia has what it takes to beat one of these teams. Their biggest strength is depth and I think that helps them on Saturday. However, I am not sure they have ever made Quarters at Centex so I could be full of it. Regardless, this will be a tough pool to get out of and like Pool C, I don't see any team going 5-0.

Closing Thoughts

It goes without saying that I am extremely amped for this tournament. My one fear for the competitive field is injuries. I remember back in 2006 when UBC was looking good but Oscar got rocked in the first round and UBC sucked for the remainder of the tourney. I really hope we get 100% from every team but I get the feeling someone, somewhere is going to slip. Maybe it won't be an injury, maybe it will be something like the Mamabird benching situation where some late comers sat and watched Kansas beat Colorado. Regardless, I would like every team to be as good in real life as they are on paper and I hope that Saturday is the best day of college ultimate I have ever seen.

I will also try and pick up a good story or two during pool play and get another entry up Saturday night. We'll see. I would also like to do some interviews if some teams out there would be willing. I'll be the red head in the blue Voltron hat, HA! I rule.

just my thoughts

match diesel