And that they say....

is where the plot thickens.

For anyone out there that goes to major ultimate tournaments just to watch, like Nationals for example, go to Centex instead. This tournament has been so much fun to be at. Austin is a great city, the weather is unreal. These teams that are invincible in a 16 team Nationals tournament, are actually human believe it or not. I have always thought that 5 pool play games was a marathon but seeing it in real life makes the point so easy to make.

So friday night I get into Austin at around 5pm. I was really nervous because I have never been to to Centex, I have never been to Texas and I was going to be putting my life into the hands of people I don't know very well. In any event, the Lone Star boys did NOT disappoint and they took great care of me. I wish I had more to say but the 27 yager bombs I got stuck buying because I lost at credit card roulette kind of erased most of the night. I will say I got to sleep in Matty C's bed and he slept on someone else's couch, I rule.

First Round: Colorado (13) vs Arizona (9) and Carleton (12) vs Georgia (13)

I should first say that I got to the Arizona/Colorado game a little late. The score was 4-0 when I showed up and Colorado took it to 5-0.

Martin Cochran is definitely back. I asked him how he felt after playing a game where he covered Kershner a little bit and he told me that he "felt like this was the first tournament he had every played in". I figured having been out for a few months would hurt your conditioning but his experience is something that Colorado needs and now has.

I would love to say that the story of this game was Jolian and Mac Taylor dominating but the two Mamabird players that blew my mind were Chris Wicus and Kevin "Pebbles" Schipper. Neither one of them recorded major fantasy points, but my god did they do a good job of resetting the offense. Wicus played at Club Nationals with Bashing Pinatas and after seeing him at NE Regionals and now at Centex, he looks like he has gotten is serious shape. I suppose having to command such a historic offense is a major motivational force. His breaks, his composure, the ability to get the dump and continue the offense played a big role in the how/why's of Colorado's win. Pebbles was also a stud. He is so quick and his disc skills are awesome. Him teaming up with Wicus was great to watch because they are such different players, Wicus is 6'4" and Pebbles is 5'8" but their team work was really cool to see. Pebbles can get open on anyone and Wicus really uses his body size to generate breaks and they did a great job handling the grunt work why Jolian and Mac Taylor were hucking scores to one another.

As far as Arizona goes, I really think they live and die with high risk throws. They are addicted to their upside down throws and I really think that it becomes a liability. I mean, ok say you have a great hammer, even the best handlers don't put up 20-30 hammers because the throw is going to get dropped/D'd 20% of the time. If you are throwing one hammer after another you are going to turn it over. I don't want to say this but, I am beginning to think Arizona got lucky in Vegas. I mean that scoober?!? I don't care who you are, find me a Club Nationals player that puts up something like that. Hammers, scoobers, and break hucks in college are like 3-point shooting in college, streaky. Sometimes everything looks good, especially if the weather is good, but sometimes you get drops or adverse weather conditions. I don't mean to say that they are careless but I think when things are tough, a consistent and veteran team like Colorado will take advantage of those turnovers. The one thing that frustrated me was that Colorado's 0-line would give up the disc and Arizona would put up some backhand break huck with Jolian as a deep defender or an upfield scoober, or something that basically showed that valuing the disc was not a priority. In any event, I think high risk moves really hurt Arizona's chances of collecting the breaks they needed to beat Colorado. They definitely have superb talent though. Kershner was in but he was out shined in this game by his supporting cast. Erik Gafni is such a dominant offensive threat. His ability to get open, his throws and his vertical presence is unreal. Chris Shepard is a phenomenal handler and his defensive ability is really an asset. Henry Scharf is also a great handler and Arizona's second half was definitely better than their first.

Georgia vs Carleton was the first great game of the day. Georgia took half 7-6, which is when I started watching and the second half was really well played. Carleton hucks a lot more than I thought they would considering they are such a squirrely collection of Junior players. Lindsley is a stud, his deep cutting ability really opens up CUT's offense. Adam Fagin handles very well and has really matured as a disc player in the last year. Playing for Mischief has definitely improved his game. Christian Foster has really fit in nicely into CUT's offense and his disc skills and athleticism are phenomenal as well as common on Carleton. Despite giving him shit, I think his transfer to Carleton was a great move and I think he is really happy there.

Georgia actually played a much different game then I imagined. I think Dylan's departure is good for their team. With a such a phenomenal player, I would imagine that JoJah players would take pressure of themselves and put it on Dylan. The motivation to make THE play is not as strong as the security that Dylan would always be there to provide what the team needs. Today, it seemed that every Georgia player really wanted to get D's or scores or whatever, and it really helped the team succeed. Greg Swanson played great on both sides of the disc and his health is definitely something Georgia needs to protect. Will McDonough is a great cutter and defender and his experience really makes him a great on the field. His ability to let Swanson play his game by playing his own really helps get red and white in the endzone. Georgia was up late in the game but let Carleton come back. I think that these World's kids are great disc players but they are still young and composure is still a concern. I also think their abilities definitely compensate for their small size but I wonder if Carleton will be able to get back on top of the Central Region. It seems that Ultimate used to be the sport where the nerdy kid who played was good and the real jocks were preoccupied with better sports. However, now that more and more people are playing our sport, better athletes are saddling up and teams like Wisconsin really benefit from a 30,000 student population. With that in mind I wonder if Juniors talent is going to be enough.

Round 2: NC State (9) vs Michigan (13), Texas (13) vs UNC (12), and Wisconsin (12) vs Oregon (10)

Michigan is good and this is Centex. You can't fluke and win 5 pool play games. This tournament is the most brutal physical challenge I have ever seen in an ultimate sense and winning game after game is really amazing especially with the level of competition they are up against. When the game started Michigan only had 10 players but Will Neff and Ryan Purcell got it done. I really think that Ryan's commitment to ultimate paired up with Will Neff's talent/experience is really similar to Randy Moss and Tom Brady pairing up. Will is so experienced that his contribution goes so far beyond his 6'5" size. His throws, confidence, man/poach D, basically his whole game is such a deep asset which has really elevated Michigan's game to a level they have never been. In this game, Magnum's offense ran very smoothly, very club team-esk and in addition to Will and Ryan, Alex Fegert and Patrick Collins really had knew what they were doing. Fegert is great in the air and Collins is a razor sharp cutter.

As far as NC State goes, sorry Ultie Arnie, I caught you and your guys in a poor game. His handling ability is really spectacular though and I am glad I have had the chance to talk to him a little bit. I asked him what the ultimate scene in Australia (where he is from) is like relative to the US. The first thing he told me was that "the game is much more spirited because the community is much smaller and people all know and make everyone accountable for poor calls and what not". John Norris seems to run their offense and has confidence in the handler position. NC State really took wayy too many chances though, and put up a lot of hucks that sailed out of bounds. Thomas Ward is also a great cutter for NC State and I think he really facilitates things NC State's offense.

Considering that I had been partying with the Texas guys I thought I would watch some TUFF ultimate and I wanted to catch Stephen Presley in action. I wish I had seen the Pitt game (and man did Pitt play, I didn't need dinner because i ate some serious words tonight) but Texas looked good against UNC. They had some issues with UNC's zone but their handling ability was much better than I was expecting. The one critique I had of them was that Presley wasn't in the main handler position in their zone O. His break throws are unreal, he is soo fast, and his field presence is so polished and Sarasota-esk. This guy is definitely callahan worthy, but talent is only part of what it takes to win the award.

North Carolina definitely had a great day despite this loss, hell they made quarters and Texas did not. It is still unclear whether they are above or behind NC State but I think they need more consistency before they will earn that bid to natties. Their offense ran very well though. they didn't rely on bombs or hammers, just good cutting and throwing. Ryan Coffield is a great player and his offensive presence is as consistent as UNC will need to be to make Boulder. They had a lot to think about going into the showcase game with the possibility (which happened) of 3 teams going 4-1 only 2 of which make quarters. The TD's were really scratching their heads on this one, but they all settled on Pitt and North Carolina for reasons I don't fully understand but trust.

I caught very little of the Wisconsin vs Oregon game but I would have to say that Oregon has got to be hurting tonight. They, like Stanford, were probably thinking Quarters and ended up 0-5?!?! Yikes, that hurts. Despite going 0-5, their game against Wisconsin was so painful to watch. They were up 10-7 when I walked over and I guess myself and the rest of the crowd was bad luck. Eli Janin went down with a bad ankle sprain and Wisconsin made 2 suspect calls and both really turned the tables on Oregon. It's too bad that calls can result in such a large degree of frustration which can really affect one's play but it's part of the game. The first call was a deep shot Oregon took and a Wisconsin defender made (what I thought to be) a poor foul call down field. He backed into the receiver who caught the disc and called a foul. Regardless, after A LOT of discussion the disc went back and Oregon turned it. Later on the same point Muffin called a foul on a floaty dump throw from Shane. I am not sure if it was good or bad, but I hear it was close. In the end Oregon sunk themselves. Irrespective of calls, giving up 5 unanswered points is inexcusable. I would like to think this could have been an isolated incident but they let Cal come back from being down 10-4 so I think their consistency is priority #1 on Oregon's agenda. Stout did play very well in this game though. He is a big strong deep cutter, and I think Dusty's handling ability is really facilitated by Kevin's presence. My only critique of Dusty was that he really gave it back a lot. Wisconsin coughed it up twice on one point that I saw and Dusty sent it back the other way on a back hand huck out the back. They also didn't have anything left come their UCSD game and despite wanting to play a game to 7, the Squids were ready for round 5 and we FINALLY beat Oregon. Non-ideal I know, but it's a stepping stone.

As for Wisconsin, they definitely are in world of their own. They have their team mentality, their game plan and they all buy into it. Regardless of what people think about them, they really live and breath Hodag ultimate and it is THE reason they do so well. Apparently Mahowald was out but Will Lokke was spectacular as usual. Muffin and Rebholz keep the offense going, Shane is incredible in the air and basically everywhere on D, but Will is just all over the field. Epic D's, great cutting, great in the air and he seems so impervious to pressure. Very similar to Heijman, he seems to be the guy everyone on the team likes, responds to, and loves being on the line with. I think he has a chance at the Callahan if he gets the Hodag nomination.

Round 3: Freebirds, Santa Cruz (8) vs Illinois (13) and Michigan (13) vs Wisconsin (9)

I did the burrito thing....awesome.

Both Illinois and Santa Cruz had beaten Stanford so I camped out at their field for the game. Illinois looks really good. I spoke with one of their players and he told me that their depth was their strong suit but they have a tendency to play down to teams that they think they are better than. Joel Koehneman is a great handler that is very confident with the disc in his hands. However, he had a poor game against Minnesota in the following round and he put up three lazy flicks while I was watching and I think he will need much more focused to beat Michigan to get out of Great Lakes Region. Regardless, they played great small ball in the wind, which picked up into a more or less of an up-wind/down-wind game. They had the ability to break Santa Cruz with quick tosses and boring disc while hucks didn't got UCSC's way.

I also got to meet DLK who seems like a great guy. His commitment to Santa Cruz seems like it is one thing that really helps the Slugs believe that they are a nationals caliber team. His hucks were great down wind. Russell Wynne is also an unreal down field cutter and I saw him make two consecutive sky scores and was really impressed with his game. However, I am curious to know what Santa Cruz can do in wind. Their deep game seems to be an option they would prefer but they need to have more options if they want to win. Good for them the Northwest (like the Southwest) is such a shit show and no one is definitely in or out. I will say that they were definitely the best NW team at the tournament though. They beat Stanford and Georgia Tech well and while Cal was also 2-3, they barely beat UCSD and got lucky Oregon choked.

When I was watching this game I heard Michigan was up 11-8 on Wisconsin and I trucked it to their game. I wonder if the Wisconsin/Oregon game had anything to do with this loss, but like the NC State game, Michigan just looks confident. Their win against Wisconsin was not like Arizona's or UBC's close games AT ALL. In a 5 game day, beating the deepest team in the country soundly is not a fluke. I really think Will's presence is unreal for Magnum. He takes so much pressure off the rest of the team and really lets everyone just play their game. I talked with Ryan Purcell after the game and he was telling me that "the game had only 6 turnovers" which really says that despite a GREAT offensive showing by Wisconsin, they just got out played. You can't say you played poorly when you commit so few turn overs, and I think Michigan's offense is just ice cold. Very similar to Arizona, UBC, and Oregon, the teams that can get close to Wisconsin are those that really beat teams with crisp offense. Wisconsin can't break you if you don't give them the disc and Magnum's flow seems so finely tuned. I also asked Ryan how he felt about his team this year. Apparently they are having some administrative issues with field space and they have had a tough time getting good weather and competition at tournaments. They didn't go to Vegas so they missed out on getting on some folks' radar which goes to show you that you really can't break into elite discussion unless you show up to one of Skippy's fine tournaments. Bottom line, I thought that Michigan was the real deal last month, and I really hope they can keep it up and play to their potential at regionals/nationals. Again, with a player like Neff this is really going to be fun to watch because this is all pressure Will can laugh at considering his days looking up at DoG while he was on Twisted Metal and his composure will keep Magnum in the spot light.

Round 4: Minnesota (13) vs Illinois (12) and Wisconsin (13) vs UCSD (8)

I am glad I got to see the Illinois/Minnesota game but I think the game got better after I left. At half I went to go support my undergrad buddies but from what I saw, Jeff Anderson and Jerod Johnson really kick ass for this team. Their man D is really good and they managed to grind out a win against Illinois. The game was close the entire time and they were fighting for their right to make quarters. Having never played at a level like this, one would they think they mihght crumble but they stuck it out. They also got a great win over Stanford (ahh, what the fuck happened to Bloodthirsty?) and despite losing to Georgia Tech, they are in the championship bracket tomorrow.

In this Illinois game I think they were a little over confident. Justin Manuel played phenomenal defense and had great in cut as well as deep cut offensive presence. Their offense was clean at times, but like I said, sometimes they don't play their best game.

Wisconsin vs UCSD was as expected. The Hodgas were well in control for the entire game but Eric "Biel" Abhold on UCSD has an Adam "Wormser" Bunn feel to his cuts. He is extremely fast, he can change direction on a dime and is just one of those little guys that cuts deep well. Sophmore Josh Nickerson also had a great sky and I think great plays against a team like Wisconsin is experience in the making that will help this team succeed in the future. Maclyn "Boont" Eick and Mark "Dibs" Johnston run a great team and it makes me wish I was a squid now rather than '03-'05. The team dynamic seems is so close and everyone is so happy. I think they are going to have to suck it up and go to things like the Stanford Qualified next year but the momentum from that 2005 Georgia 15-6 upset in Corvalis that got us into Semis is really running out and it is time for these guys to write their own history.

Round 5: Florida (13) vs Stanford (8)

Florida really is a great team. They are so confident and tall. They are the new Colorado. Despite the fact that they don't have many friends outside their team, they really are fantastic to watch. Their zone completely shut Stanford down. With guys like Brodie in the cup, it literally is a wall and floaty hammers were eaten up by Gibson like ham on Easter Sunday. Florida is also really good at hanging out at that threshold where a double team is or is not. That definitely put unwanted pressure on Stanford and it showed.

I also wanted to say that Kurt is a phenomenal player, there is no denying it. I think in a vacuum, he is the best player in the country and deserves the callahan. His ability to get D's at will, his throws, his jumping ability, unreal. He has comparable athletic ability to Beau but his fundamentals are so sharp and his club experience is spectacular. However, he does yell a lot and seems like a hot head. I think Tim Gehret's presence really kept Kurt in check, maybe even subconsciously, back in 2006 and that is why I think they were untouchable. I hope that he can keep a level head for his team mates sake but who knows? I also wanted to say that I really like Brodie, he had a great heckle in the Wisconsin/Oregon game. A Wisconsin guy made a call and Brodie yelled from the sideline "Thats a Brodie call!!". He, like Gibson, is an absolute hawk in the air.

I only watched 1 Stanford game so I only know so much. I heard from an Illinois guy that they went 6-1 on Stanford in the second half to win 13-7 and by the time the 1 vs 2 round came along, Stanford was already 0-4. They are really young. I wasn't at Stanford Invite but they just don't have depth anymore. Ezra, Schalg, and Sherwood played great games. Sherwood got a sky score on Gibson as did Ezra over Brodie. Scardato even got a great sky D on Brodie and he is 9 inches shorter. However, outside those few, Stanford really doesn't have a consistent play maker outside Sherwood. Ezra is a great deep threat, but he is beatable and his defense on Kurt and/or Brodie is ehh. He just can't elevate to that level on defense. Scardato will be a great player, I hope he sticks with disc, but he is so little. With his skill set, he is right on the cusp of being a great deep threat. Not just a deep threat but a great deep threat. However, with that title, comes unwanted attention. He is a good threat but if their offense relies on him and Ezra, they are each beatable with unfavorable matchups. Maybe they get some sweet skies but defensively, they are going to struggle. Stanford's performance also showed me how valuable Nan Gao and Will Chen were last year. As the two best defensive handlers in the country Stanford, could not only generate D's but once they did, Cahill and Sherwood had not pressure on them to reset the disc. Gao and Chen moved the offense and all they had to do was run. Now Sherwood is handling a lot and while his patented "no fake quick backhand break" gets resets fairly well, it looks like he is stuck playing a role he would rather not and isn't the best at. Stanford's handlers have a ton of pressure on them to get this offense on track and their streakiness just goes to show you how inexperienced this team is. I think Schlag can get it done but I wonder if all the pieces will be in place by May.

I missed a lot of the show case game because I was getting ripped with some undergrad buddies, sorry. I got to tell all my stories over again though, which I never get tired of.

Closing Thoughts

I really hate to say this but I Carleton is in trouble. If you look at their scores they beat teams that they easily have better fundamentals and experience than, (Harvard and Kansas) but their losses are to teams that have their experience and are just bigger. I mean no one on Carleton can challenge players like Erik Gafni (Arizona) or Jolian Dahl (Colorado). I think Georgia has some work to do to get their game a little cleaner but I think a 13-12 loss will just be a 15-12 one at Nationals. It seems like they should succeed but the teams that are at the top always seems to sqweak past them. Georgia in Columbus last year, Georgia today, Stanford in Columbus last year, Colorado today.

The bird is back. Martin told me that they were "just making fundamental mistakes" this year so far and I think they are beginning to realize that that 2004 national championship is just a paper weight to most of the players on the team. They need to do it year in and year out. Riding momentum is nice but it does run out.

Pitt...wow. You guys are good, but I didn't see you play at all. I think the Colorado draw is a nice quarters match up because it will give a team looking for exposure a chance to play a team that is trying to hold onto it. I'll do what I can to catch you play tomorrow but I really want to see what Michigan can do and the Florida/Wisconsin game will be amazing.

I have said this a bunch but Centex is such a gruelling tourney. At nationals everyone is rested and fresh for their 3 games but Centex just sucks the life out of everyone, even the best teams. I saw a lot of hucks go over thrown in the later rounds which made it obvious to me that the legs were a lot more tired than the arms. I am not sure what is a better showing of the best in ultimate, but for outside the series, there is nothing like Centex. Its a tournament where flukes are just non-existent. Vegas has a lot of different teams so some games aren't as hard as others and its also early in the year so cold weather teams are at a disadvantage. But Centex, no way. This is to-the-limit ultimate.

match diesel

PS I didn't get this up until 3am so don't bother with correcting stupid mistakes if I made them. I didn't really get a chance to revise much.

Centex Preview: A Spectator's Guide

This weekend is the God Father 2 of ultimate tournaments, Centex. There was talk of power pools and what not but I am glad to see that the TD's have gone back to the original 4 pools of 6 format that we have all come to love and hate. There are a lot of ways I could potentially put together a preview and I thought I would go with what games I am actually going to watch and why.

Round 1: Arizona vs Colorado and Carleton vs Georgia
Hands down the most exciting game in the first round is Arizona vs Colorado. First off, it could be the Southwest Regional Finals and this year it could be Colorado that gets to veg out in late May. For Arizona, this is their chance to again show that they are the real deal this year. One would think Stanford would have been that chance for Sunburn but without Kershner, a lot of folks have jumped to explain their quarters loss to Texas. With Joey back, Arizona could be better than ever.

In addition Colorado could have Martin Cochran back. Martin has been a dominant defensive threat for Colorado for many years and his consistency and experience is something that Mamabird has been without all season due to a broken foot. However, his contribution will be along the same lines as Jolian's and Mac Taylor's, a great deep threat both on the offensive and defensive side of the disc. This is not where Colorado is weak. Colorado needs handlers and with Martin in the mix, it will be another option for Jolian to go to, but I think he would rather BE the option instead of throwing to one. I would like to think that as a 5th year Martin could play somewhat of a handler role, but I think Colorado's best option is to have a mixture of handler/cutter roles for their 3 main deep threats (Jolian, Mac, and Martin). More or a less a three man set where one is cutting, one is handling and one is streaking to the endzone. Lastly, I am not convinced Colorado is out of the picture. They have been so dominant for so long and their Saturday record at Centex is an unheard of 18-1, with the one loss almost being on purpose because Catt benched a few tartee starters. I think Martin will be a big addition, and considering that it's the first round, Colorado will be fresh. I don't know if they can last all 5 rounds but round 1 will be exciting.

I want to catch the first half of this game because it could very well be one sided. After 12-15 points, this game could be already decided. Regardless, I want to jump to another game, CUT vs JoJah.

This game is a rematch of Nationals where 5th seeded CUT was upset by a 9th seeded Georgia. Georgia has been good this year but they have only played in one NCUS tournament, Florida Warm Up and they made the Finals. They could have had their chance to prove their worth at Terminus but Mother Nature had other plans. A semis exit at QCTU and a split squad loss in the finals to Michigan at Mudbowl leaves me with more questions than answers.

CUT still has a lot to prove. They had a great weekend in Vegas but their Stanford results were poor. They edged out Stanford which I expected, but their roster was whittled down to 12 by Sunday afternoon. With Lindsley and the other Junior tryouts back they will have added depth, which they desperately need, but I wonder if it will be enough to last the marathon that is Saturday at Centex. I am also extremely curious to know what will happen between the big Southern Boys and the quick Junior World's talent.

Round 2: NC State vs Michigan, Santa Cruz vs Georgia Tech, and Texas vs UNC

Ambitious I know, but I want to see as many teams as possible and round 2 is a busy round.

First NC State and Michigan. I am interested in this game for a variety of reasons. NC State is still undefeated. They won A game at Terminus under suspect circumstances and while I am willing to believe that they can be a top 5 team, I am not yet convinced. Plus, I have never really seen NC State play and I want to see Ulty Arnie suit up for his actual team as opposed to Voltron.

I am also interested in Michigan. I have watched Ryan Purcell run himself ragged for Michigan for several years and I am really curious to know what sort of impact Will Neff is having on Magnum. Will has been noted for shutting down phenomenal players like Beau Kittredge, and I am curious to know what he can do on D and what Michigan has him doing on offense.

This will probably be a scramble like round 1. Catch the first half of this game and spend the second half of the round trying to catch 2 more games.

Santa Cruz vs Georgia Tech is a game I am interested in for a few reasons. For starters, it is one of the better 5/6 games because both Santa Cruz and Georgia Tech have similar standings in their respective regions, around 5th as I figure it. Santa Cruz is looking up at Stanford, UBC, Cal and maybe Oregon, while Georgia Tech is looking up at Florida, Georgia, NC State and UNC. A contest between these two teams will show people like myself, what they are capable of and this will be a game that could go down to the wire, always fun for us fans. Plus I have not seen much of either team over the years. The last time I saw anything of Georgia Tech was back in 2006 when they almost beat Florida in Vegas and considering that they were spectacular athletes then, I am curious to know how their program is coming along.

As far as Santa Cruz goes, the last time I saw them was back in 2004 when we played them at the Stanford Qualifier. They have developed a lot and are getting back to their mid-90's days. Plus, I really want to meet DLK. We seem to agree on a variety of ultimate topics and I am curious to know what he is like in real life.

Lastly, Texas vs UNC. I am really curious about Texas. So far they have no blemishes on their season and have had strong performances at Pres Day and Stanford. Stephen Presley is also a player I would like to watch. I took a close look at some UVTV footage and was really impressed with his break throws and his give and go style behind the disc. He is in the callahan discussion but as a handler he has a long road to march down. This will be his round to stun me on Saturday.

Darkside is also a team that I have liked for a number of years, ever since their run at Stanford Invite back in 2004. Zack Washburn was a great UNC player and I am curious to know what they can do now. I also think that UNC and Texas will play similar athletic grip and rip ultimate and that should prove to be exciting to watch. In looking at the rest of the pool, I think the UCSB game could also be interesting because they were the only team that beat Texas at Pres Day. In addition, the UBC re-match will be spectacular but I have other plans for the 1 vs 2 round.

Round 3: Oregon vs Cal and Lunch

I wish the Texas/UNC game was in this round but it isn't and considering I am hypoglycemic it is probably good that there is only one game I am drawn to.

The UGMO vs EGO game will be epic. It could the 2/3 game at Regionals and despite the fact that some folks don't like going all the way to Texas to play a regional rival, this game will be good for both teams. I am curious to see Cal's offense in real life. I have talked about it some, but I still have yet to witness it. Seeing Dusty Becker in action will also be a treat. I have read a lot about the trio of Becker, Janin and Stout but the only game I saw of theirs at Nationals last year was against Wisconsin which was obviously not much fun for the boys in green. In any event, hopefully the first half of this game is exciting because I want the second half to be spent at Chipotle. Matty?

Round 4: Illinois vs Minnesota and UBC vs UCSB

The Illinois vs Minnesota game will be awesome for a variety of reasons. Illinois is quietly setting themselves up to take the Great Lakes region this year and I think they are the biggest challenge for Michigan. I don't know much about them but after watching Michigan I am going to want to size up Magnum's competition.

As for Minnesota, they have a rough spot. They are in the one region that has #1 and #2 pretty much locked up. I think they would prefer to be in the Great Lakes, at least that way they'd have a chance at Nationals this year. In any event, I think Illinois poses the closest match-up for them in this pool and will be a great game. I think Santa Cruz would also be a good match-up but the two teams will probably never see each other again and I am sure there is at least some history between these two upper mid-west teams.

The UBC vs UCSB game will be awesome because it will be a re-match of Stanford Invite. A lot of folks don't like Pool D because there is a lot of rematches and regional rivals in it, but I like it for parity. Tide is definitely better than they have been playing and UBC is riding momentum they have not seen since 2005. Tide also got the better of the Thunderbirds in Palo Alto and I am curious to know if a 1-3 Tide team is actually better than a 3-1 UBC team. In any event, I will get the chance to do some scouting and hopefully it's a good game.

Round 5: Stanford vs Florida

As if there was going to be any doubt. This game is probably the best game of the day and the only thing that can screw it up are injuries, so guys be careful. This game is a re-match of semis back in 2006 when Gehret tore Bloodthirsty a new one, 15-7. I don't think they have played since, but this game will be exciting for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, each team is in a similar performance spot. Florida had a great Warm Up and actually a great Vegas trip (8-1 with a DGP loss to a finals team), they just got unlucky. They then went on to make the Finals at Club Terminus and are now ready to show why they are better than a 7th seed. Likewise, Stanford had a forgettable Santa Barbara Invite, but got their shit together at Kaimana and were ready to ball come their home tournament. I think they are deserving of their 1 seed status, but I think they got an unlucky draw with Florida. I think Florida is the #2/3 team in the country, behind Wisconsin and February-Carleton. This 1/2 game could/should be a semis or at least quarters caliber game but because of the weirdness of 2008, we get to see them in pool play. I am really excited to see what Stanford's fundamentals will do against Florida's explosive offense. However, specific match-ups are uninteresting because few players on each team play the same kind of game. I think the handler match-ups will be the best (ie Schlag and Van Auken), but Sherwood vs Gibson or Ezra vs Brodie will definitely favor the Gators. Despite this, I think Stanford has a chance with their 3-7 against a relatively shallow Florida team. In any event, NO ONE GET HURT!!!

If possible, it would be nice to catch either Carleton vs Arizona or Texas vs UBC but I will have already seen all 4 teams by this round.

I have left out 6 teams. Sorry guys, no offense, but I think watching 18 different teams isn't bad. Plus I will get enough Wisconsin on Sunday anyway.

Quarters Predictions

Pool A: Wisconsin and yikes. This is a tough pool. For me, Oregon and NC State are real question marks. I like that we will FINALLY get to see what NC State is made of outside their region. Oregon has some tough games and I wonder if their depth will get them the 3/4 wins they will need to move on. I think Wisconsin goes 5-0 but you could see a lot of 3-2's in this pool. Based on differential it could be Ego, the Wolfpack, or, my hopeful, Magnum.

Pool B: Stanford and Florida. I think these two teams are definitely in a class above the rest in this pool. Florida sunk themselves by dodging Stanford Invite and deserve to be a 2 seed but they are better than it and could go 5-0. I dunno how Gibson and his buddies last 5 pool play games at Centex, but they do. Stanford is also ready and waiting. Florida is their one threat in this pool and I think their experience and "program" status gets them past out of region competition. The Santa Cruz game will be interesting but I think Bloodthirsty has more depth and considering they made Finals last year at Centex and Stanford Invite two weeks ago, they look good to make it out of the pool.

Pool C: UBC and Texas. This pool is the biggest question mark for the tournament. Texas has looked good but I am still not convinced. UBC, Tide, and UNC all could make runs at the 1 or 2 spot out of this pool and I think this will be a battle royal. I think UBC and Texas both go 4-1 with the Thunderbirds winning the 1 vs 2 game but I see them getting caught sleeping earlier in the day.

Pool D: Arizona/Carleton and Georia. I think between Arizona and Carleton, one is not going to hold seed. They each have played great but there is a ton of pressure on both to duplicate past results and make up for poor ones. I think one of them does well on Saturday but just one. I want to see Arizona go 5-0/4-1, but they could slip and end up going 3-2 or worse. More of the same with Carleton. They might come out hot early but injuries and their depth could be an issue come Rounds 4 and 5. I think Georgia has what it takes to beat one of these teams. Their biggest strength is depth and I think that helps them on Saturday. However, I am not sure they have ever made Quarters at Centex so I could be full of it. Regardless, this will be a tough pool to get out of and like Pool C, I don't see any team going 5-0.

Closing Thoughts

It goes without saying that I am extremely amped for this tournament. My one fear for the competitive field is injuries. I remember back in 2006 when UBC was looking good but Oscar got rocked in the first round and UBC sucked for the remainder of the tourney. I really hope we get 100% from every team but I get the feeling someone, somewhere is going to slip. Maybe it won't be an injury, maybe it will be something like the Mamabird benching situation where some late comers sat and watched Kansas beat Colorado. Regardless, I would like every team to be as good in real life as they are on paper and I hope that Saturday is the best day of college ultimate I have ever seen.

I will also try and pick up a good story or two during pool play and get another entry up Saturday night. We'll see. I would also like to do some interviews if some teams out there would be willing. I'll be the red head in the blue Voltron hat, HA! I rule.

just my thoughts

match diesel

Ending the Streak

So I am getting a little ancy because I haven't posted in a little while and my last post is more or less useless, thanks mother nature. In addition, I know I am going to be on posting overdrive in two days or so with Centex and all, but I am bored now.

After being a T-Wolves (Kevin Garnett) and Kentucky (Rajon Rondo) fan for a number of years (and moving to this god forsaken part of the country), I have become a Celtics fan and as such I watched them destroy the Rockets last night. Over the last few months I have come to realize that basketball and ultimate are very similar and in looking at one, you can make inferences on the other. When considering these things I thought I would share some thoughts.

Houston's/Ugmo's streak and it's end

First I thought I would talk about Houston's flare up and draw some parallels to ultimate. First off, they won 22 games in a row beginning back on January 29th and went from being 10th in the western conference to being 1st. They also have done this in large part without their center Yao Ming who broke his foot ending his season. In any event, Rafer Alston, Bobby Jackson, and Shane Battier have picked up the slack and their team as a whole has done well for the last month and a half. However, last night, they got torched by 20 points. Boston's defense was very effective in putting pressure on T-Mac to pass the ball instead of shoot and Alston was ice cold going 2-7 from 3pt landing, as opposed to 8-11 against the Lakers 2 days ago. In any event this streak had me thinking of 2 things 1) Cal's run back in 2004 and 2) Wisconsin's run this year.

Back in 2004, Cal was unstoppable. I could go into the whole Bart Watson acquisition, their run through Centex and the Series but you can just read my Cal write up if you want to know. The biggest event in that season however, was their finals performance where they got rocked 15-7 by Colorado. I took a look back at the Day 3 write up from nationals that year and it seems that the portion of the game where Colorado took advantage was the end of the first half and the beginning of the second half. Colorado was up 6-5 and took advantage of Cal's over anxious deep attempts to take half 8-5. They then came out using Richter, Parker, and Beau to open the game up to 10-5. That was more or less all they needed. They traded points to 12-7, but Cal collapsed in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds and lost 15-7.

Boston did more or less the same thing last night. At the end of the first quarter Rafer Alston stole the ball from Cassell to take a 1 point lead at the end of the first. However, at the end of the second half, Alston got caught putting up a lazy pass and Boston scored 5 in a row to tie it at 40-40 going into the break. With the momentum shift, Boston put pressure on T-Mac and allowed Rondo to find his rhythm in running the offense in the third quarter. It was here that they outscored Houston 32-16, taking control of the game, and in the 4th they didn't need much, just sit back on D, and they cruised to a 20 point victory.

Wisconsin's first loss?

So where am I going with this? I suppose with all my writing and research one goal of mine is to find a way to beat Wisconsin. Nothing against them, they are spectacular but I don't want to see them make another murderous rampage through the competition at Nationals. If I were on a great team (which I never really have been) such as UBC, Carleton, Arizona, Florida (teams that have gotten close or beaten the Hodags) or a team TBD, this is what I would be thinking going into a game against Wisconsin:

1) Play your offense. Teams with great synergy and offense have done the best against Wisconsin. Colorado likes to play to their superstars and thats why I think they got rocked in the finals last year. They were predictable and just went Jolian to Beau a lot. Stanford was a patient team but they tried to rely on their handling resets to setup isolations (Sherwood and Cahill) which caught up with them. In order to succeed against Wisconsin, you need to have a good offense top to bottom. Going in, no one can be a clear front runner to record scores. With defenders like Lokke, Hohenstein and Mahowald, trying to go for your 1st or 2nd option consistently is going to get you in trouble. However, if you run your offense, whether it be a spread or Ho-stack or whatever, and get the disc to whomever is next in line/open, you can move the disc effectively and score. Trying to get an isolation with your main deep threat isn't going to work, going for a consistent bail out isn't going to work. Wisconsin is going to see it coming and take advantage of predictability. However, without a clear offensive threat, the Hodag defense is going to have to rely on their top to bottom defense and that is where the offense has the advantage. Covering everyone for 10 seconds is impossible, and if good decisions are made to open cutters as opposed to familiar faces, a team can score.

2) Remain composed. Ultimate is a game that relies on runs. It seems like teams are the most vulnerable to Wisconsin at the end of the first half. This is when a game is at 4s or 5s. It is when your offense has successfully relied on their primary or secondary option and the Hodags are trying to adjust. It is also when they are going to play their smartest. If they can shut you down and get a break or two going into half, lights out. If they take half 8-6 or 8-5, their second half intensity will do the rest. Teams have to remain patient but vigilant. Get the disc to open receivers but take opportunities when they come. Cutters cannot be timid or passive. Run your cuts the way you would against anyone else and let the handlers make the choices. If you run good cuts over and over, you will get open. Wisconsin may have legs for days, but the offense still has the advantage of knowing where the disc is going. Making good decision can make up for a drop off in athletic ability, and if decisions are good, and handlers are composed, scores will happen. Going into half close is vital as is keeping Wisconsin from being fired up.

3) Take advantage of Muffin's impatience, in fact take advantage of impatience in general. Wisconsin is an intense team and it shows on their defense, and offense. Muffin has a clear propensity to jack it, especially on the D-line. It's a relatively low risk situation. Wisconsin generates a turn, and Muffin picks it up as D-line handler and goes for the throat. However, a lot of these hucks do not connect. This is a teams' chance to NOT get broken. Take the CUT/Observer situation. On that point where the CUT guy threw it right into an observer for a turnover, Muffin threw a break throw away to Mahowald after the CUT turnover giving the disc back to Carleton. He also had a rushed goal line turnover previously on the same point. In these situations however, CUT made the same mistake and gave it back.

On the offensive side, it seems like Wisconsin's only weakness is themselves. Two huge turnovers that helped Arizona go from 8-5 to 11-10 in the Vegas finals were a poor backhand huck from Lokke to Gaynor and a rushed pass to Shane off a dead disc. Arizona was patient, played their offense, took opportunities that presented themselves and worked it in for the break. In addition Wisconsin put up a lazy pass that resulted in out of bounds turnover and they also had a poor dump throw turnover. In these cases however, Arizona went for hammers to un-open receivers which kept them from getting that last crucial break.

Long story short, when Wisconsin coughs it up, take a deep breath and play YOUR offense, not theirs. Easy in-cuts, breaks, scoobers, whatever your team does best. Retaliatory hucks just play into their hands as do rushed hammers. This game is about role players. Handlers handle and cutters cut. Catch the disc and don't do anything stupid.

4) Take away a single option. It seems easy to think that defense in ultimate is like defense in football. Try and get the layout D, much like an interception, and get a break and win. However, the trouble comes with transferring that D to a win. Defense in ultimate is not about a single play like an interception. A lot of layout D's result in turnovers by the D-line and for every layout D your team gets, your opponent is probably going to get one. The trick is pressure. Defense in ultimate is like defense in basketball. You are never going to shut out a team, but if you can get them to score 80 points instead of 95, you can win. All you need to do is put pressure on them to fail 1 in 3 or something like that. In ultimate you can do this by taking away 1 option. Trying to shut down Wisconsin or any teams entire offense is going to be pretty hard. However, look for 1 thing that they like (and you should spend the first half looking for it) and use their propensity to go for that option as a weakness. Maybe it's Foster's break side flick huck, maybe it's their cavalier dump throws, maybe it's breakside to openside cuts. Whatever it is, be mindful of what their offense is doing and attack 1 option.

Closing Thoughts
Nothing exciting, just some thoughts. I have nothing against Wisconsin, I am just trying to figure them out. Then again, having never played them, I could be full of shit and probably am.

As far as this week/end goes, I will put up a Centex preview post either tomorrow or Friday depending on when I find out what pools look like. Hopefully I can get another post up Saturday night after watching pool/power play competition and then I'll have a recap next week, maybe Monday. Stay tuned.


just my thoughts

match diesel

Terminus Thoughts

So I know it isn't under the Cultimate umbrella, but Terminus this weekend is going to be an exciting tournament with a lot of good teams in attendance.

Tournament Teams and Format

This tournament has definitely fluctuated in team numbers as well as programs in attendance. This tournament used to be a stomping ground for the Hodags who won it last year against Pitt and the year before over Georgia. Now that Cultimate has further legitimized Stanford Invite, it looks like the 'dags are going to head West instead of South East, but no matter, the tournament field this year is still good.

What is really good about this tournament this year is that questions concerning a variety of teams will be answered. A few teams that have really had explosive Winters have been NC State (Won Queen City), Illinois (Colorado and Oregon), and Tufts (8-1 at TiV, only losing to Arizona on DGP). This weekend we will get to see if these results were flare ups or just the beginning.

The one thing that is the weirdest about Terminus this year is the format. I think the separation of the top 10 from the bottom 16 is interesting. I like how the TD wants to give the top 10 teams good games on Saturday and give the bottom 16 teams games they can win on the first day of competition. I will say that this format is risky however. For the most part, these teams are not from the same region so seeding them relative to one another is hard. When you prevent teams from bracket play early (ie no pool play) you really have to be confident in your rankings. Seeing that few of these teams have played eachother makes this tough. Tufts fell victim to this at Vegas. They went 8-1 and only lost to Arizona 11-12. Because of their seeding, this loss relegated them to 17th place preventing them from bracket play.

However, while the formats are similar, I think the TD planned this well. 6 teams get to make it out of the bottom bracket and if you don't earn a spot, odds are your probably don't deserve to be in bracket play. The one thing I will say is that I am afraid that one team from the top bracket will go 0-4 on Saturday pitting them against another top seed team. If/when they lose this game, they are out. Now is this fair? When you have separate brackets in tournaments like this, at some point you have a bottom bracket team play a top bracket team to see who gets to make Sunday. This is more or less a pre-quarters play in and it is a smart way to dodge the seeding bullet. If you got robbed by your seed and you win you'll get a chance against the better teams and if all the stars align, you will be vindicated. Opposite case for the top teams. If you get a lucky bid, you have to beat somebody to make bracket play. I make this point but with 6 teams moving up, I don't think it will be a problem. In a tournament of 26, this format is refreshing and fair. With 80 teams, some one is gonna get screwed.

Pool A - NC State, Illinois, Dartmouth, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin-WW

NC State 4-0: Both top pools are very exciting. Right now the UPA is a big fan of NC State and have them at #3 in their rankings. This is a really tough position to be in as is trying to defend an undefeated record. The only way NC State can come out on top is for them to sweep the tournament which is more or less what comes with a 1 seed. I see them potentially winning the tournament but going undefeated is going to be hard because they have a lot of different kinds of competition on Saturday. First round is against WWW who is more or less the LPC of the Midwest. They aren't the biggest high fliers but they have team chemistry and dedication (they won Div 3 natties last year). I see the Wolfpack winning but then they play Dartmouth which I think will be their first tough game. Pain Train is a scrappy team with smart handlers and great offensive flow. Sam Haynor is a great all around player and epitomizes Dartmouth's unique spirit. Drew Raines is another great player who is amazing in the air despite his smaller frame. Socks is also a great handler/defender and his offensive leadership is only eclipsed by his absolutely AMAZING blue eyes. I see NC State being faster top to bottom however and will able to play offense at a speed Dartmouth can't defend. They will generate scores however and keep NC State honest. The Georgia Tech game will probably be their 2nd most important contest behind the 1-2 game because it is against a regional rival. Recently GT has been closer (not by much) to making nationals than NC State and wins against teams like them are necessary if NC State wants to return to the show. If they can assert their dominance by remaining composed, I see them looking good for the series. The 1-2 game will be one of the better games of the Winter. Illinois had a great time in Vegas and I think a lot of people are curious to know what they can do a month later. The GL is wide open this year and if Illinois is for real, we'll see that in Atlanta. I think NC State is good but the 8-0 record was at QCTU, not exactly the most premier tournament, but I shouldn't say it isn't worth a lot. Illinois, however, did well at a premier tournament but it's not like they made semis. With that being said, it will be nice to know how these two fish from different ponds line up on one another. I think NC State is ready however and will earn the W.

Illinois 3-1/2-2: Illinois is a good team and they took advantage of some good teams while they were sleeping in Vegas. However, what really hurts them is that the teams they beat to make some noise, Colorado and Oregon, have not bounced back. If either team had done well in Palo Alto, maybe Illinois would look better, but now their best game looks like the 11-13 loss to Florida which came after Florida was eliminated. With that being said I think they are good but not as good as we thought a month ago. First game is against Georgia Tech and I like this match up. Georgia Tech is a fast AC team that is conditioned. I think Illinois is more experienced so it will make for an interesting game. I hope for Illinois' sake that they do well because to struggle this early will put their National's hopes in doubt. Next game is WWW and I think Illinois has the advantage. I am willing to bet that the two teams play similar games, Illinois is probably just better at it. Round 3 is against Dartmouth and this is the make or break game. Dartmouth has a similar 2-3ish stance in the NE that Illinois has had in the GL. They will play 2 different kinds of games but both have similar senses of entitlement and ability. They both lost close to Tide but Illinois beat Colorado. I see Illinois winning but this game either makes them 3-1 or 2-2 come days end.

Dartmouth 2-2/3-1: Their second game against Georgia Tech will be interesting and important. They will probably be coming off a loss to NC State and they will have to re-group. Nothing to really change but seeing a strong AC team will help them against another one. I think their mistakes in the NC State game will highlight chances they took and didn't take. This will be useful against a Georgia Tech team that will be close to as fast but not as well oiled. They will be able to take some deep shots and rely on young mistakes to avoid getting broken. I see their offense clicking well, they just need to avoid throwing to receivers that aren't open. Next game will be against Illinois which will be good, I just think they could use a bye before. This will be their chance to break seed and hopefully they have the legs to do it. Last round will be WWW and whatever kind of day WWW is having, Dartmouth will be ready. If WWW is suddenly turning heads Dartmouth will be ready and lucky it's the last game. If they are 0-3, Dartmouth will still be ready.

Georgia Tech 1-3: I want to see GT make a name for themselves out of the AC because they are an athletic team. They also come from the same section as Florida, Georgia, and UCF so they see a lot of competition. They did well at Warm Up and this will be their 5th tournament of the year so whatever game plan they have should be sorted out by now. I think they can edge past WWW but I would love to see them earn a win else where in pool play. Maybe Illinois if they are not as good as discussed, maybe Dartmouth if their lack of outdoor practice still presents a problem. Good luck.

Wisconsin Whitewater 0-4: I have them as 0-4 but they could do better. They will see 4 opponents from 3 different regions but I think, as opposed to Dartmouth and Georgia Tech, they will be ready for unfamiliar opponents. Their hopes will have to rely on their offense. Hopefully they can score on a team who will play great D and good offense once a turn is generated. I really want to see how they do because at some points during the year they have threatened to break into the NUMP and I want to know definitively whether or not they belong there.

Pool B - Georgia, Minnesota, Tufts, Davidson, and Williams

Georgia 4-0: I am a big Georgia fan and I think they do well this weekend. Their O and D teams both made semis at Mudbowl and I think each team will have things worked out well. First game will be against Williams and I am betting Georgia is a little concerned about Williams as a bottom seed. They met at nationals and now they are first up in pool play? The biggest problem is not that Georgia is/isn't ready, it's that no one knows what Williams will have. They beat Stanford at a soggy SB Invite, but for an encore? They could be top shelf, they could be average, we will know bright and early. I think Jojah handles them either way. They are large (in #s and size) and their depth will edge past WUFO. Next game is Tufts and this will be the toughest game of the day. Tufts is a great team thus far and has 1 loss to America's Cinderella team. Their cagey offensive threat will be 180 degrees from Jojah's brute force and it will be nice to see who wins. If Tufts were a deeper team I might give them the nod but I don't think their crafty ways can go against a sea of red and white. After a bye they play Davidson who I know nothing about. Davidson lost to UBC and Wisconsin at TiV (big surpirse) but they beat Dartmouth and regional rival Central Florida. I think Georgia's size will give them all the fire power they need however. Last game is against Minnesota and I am a little curious as to why they got the 4th seed. They did well at Mardi Gras but I think Tufts should have gotten the 2 seed in this pool. They haven't played in a tourney in over a month and I wonder if their winter legs will be ready for Georgia's endurance. Hopefully they have conditioned. I like Jojah's odds.

Minnesota 2-2: Minnesota is a good team but they aren't tested enough. They have insurmountable regional competition, so their out of region games are huge. They went 6-2 at Mardi Gras making the finals but their only win to a team at their level is Georgia Tech. I would not be surprised if they owned but I would also not be shocked if they didn't. Having Davidson as a 4th seed doesn't help me much because I don't know how this first game is going to go. Second game will be against Williams and if Minnesota is deserving they will handle WUFO. WUFO has a tendency to bring it at odd times. They didn't look that great last year until regionals so they might not be ready for Terminus. They then play Tufts and this will be another great game. If you look at their schedule Tufts beat Central Florida 11-10 and Minnesota beat Georgia Tech 11-10. Two AC teams at similar levels, I think UCF is better, and this makes this game a close one. I like the E-men. Last game will be Georgia and if Minnesota losses to Tufts, Georgia will eat them alive. If they are undefeated, the game will be close at first but I think Georgia takes them out 15-10ish.

Tufts 3-1: I am really excited to see what happens with these guys. They are a new contender in the NE (well new since 2004) and Andrew Hollingworth is a great captain who has been coached by the best. Tufts will be ready to role and their TiV results show that they can play well far from home. I wish they weren't playing Georgia first because I think they could probably use some sort of warm up before the dogs are let out. I think they put up a good second half game but still go down. I think they will handle Davidson alright because their offense will be finely tuned because Tufts is a good program with a good coach. Next they play Minnesota and, like I said, I think they win. Last game is Williams and I think they are looking forward to this one. The NE is definitely as open as it has ever been and the first step to making nationals is sizing up your regional competition. These are two teams that have duked it out in May before and hopefully Tufts' new game plan will be all they need to take out WUFO.

Davidson 1-3: I don't know much about this team but I will say traveling to Vegas is a big deal. It shows your team is committed and they did have some good wins against Claremont and Central Florida. They could be better than TiV, they could be worse. They play Minnesota first and I think each team will have something to prove. The results won't really matter because I think each will want to bring it against Tufts to either break or hold seed. I hope for their sake they can handle Williams and round 3 will be the biggest deal for Davidson. They went 6-3 at TiV, Tufts 8-1. The winner of this game will be stoked going into their final round and Davidson will need all the help they can get against the Dawgs.

Williams 0-4: Like I said, Williams brings it at weird times in the year. Last year they didn't look great at Yale Cup but they went on to make nationals a month later. I don't think they bring it now but that doesn't mean they are out of it for the year. Hopefully their young roster gets a win on Saturday so that they earn their top bracket status.

6 Pack

The teams I think will make it up to bracket play will be UCF, Cornell, Maryland, Virginia, William and Mary, and Colorado State.

I like UCF's 11th seed spot and I bet they do to. They did well for themselves in Palo Alto and I think they are in a good position to play some teams below them and to make it into bracket play on Sunday. I hope they play a 3 or 4 seed from the top pools as opposed to a 1 seed. I think they deserve at least quarters and should have gained a lot of experience from Stanford.

Cornell just had a tournament win and I think they have the confidence to play to their level. They also need composure however. They choked last year at regionals when they should have made nationals and I think this will be an exercise in pressure play.

Maryland is a good team that made the finals at Hellfish. I think they have what it takes to earn a spot on Sunday.

Virginia played well at Hellfish and Spring Tide. They aren't great but I do see them breaking away from a bottom 10 standing

William and Mary is nothing close to what they used to be but they are still a program. All of their losses at Ultimax were close (save tournament winner Notre Dame) and they also had big wins against Delaware and Central Florida at Hellfish.

I didn't want to take 11-16 so I went with Colorado State. They do well in the South, at least at High Tide, and I think they earn a leg up. Nothing great from TiV but I think they will be 5th or 6th out of the bottom bracket.

Closing Thoughts

I want to see an NC State vs Georgia final mainly because it will answer questions about the AC but I don't see it happening. One of these teams will faulter before the finals and it really could be either one. NC State has a lot of pressure on them and the last time they had pressure like this they sucked at nationals back in 2003. Georgia has also been guilty of under-performing, especially in the series, so they could slip to someone.

I would love to see Tufts make a run and if I had to chose between Georgia and NC State, I would go with Georgia mainly because they do really well here. They have played in the finals many times and this might be there chance to win it all now that that Wisconsin has bigger and better things to do.

Good luck to all teams. I wish I could still be down in the dirty south causing all sorts of Spring Break trouble. However, my SB days are over but I do have as many memories as anyone. Stay outta trouble and make sure you get all your rookies home safe.

just my thoughts

match diesel

It's a Hodag world...

and we are just living in it.

So this past weekend one of the most exciting and important ultimate tournaments of the college season transpired, Stanford Invite, and I thought I would share some thoughts on the event. My cousin Alex (pharohman) was there doing some field work for me so I actually have something to go off of as opposed to my usual rants.

Wisconsin

As Gerics put it, the race for second place has begun. Wisconsin looks nothing short of dominant but in looking at the stat sheet from the finals, I had some thoughts about Wisconsin. Their main strength is easily their depth but what does this mean exactly? It seems as though Wisconsin relies heavily on 2 things, 1) legs and 2) intensity. In a game where Wisconsin is fired up, there really is no stopping them unless you have an unreal offense. The one thing you don't see a lot of from Wisconsin is their O-line or as they call it, their O-face. They collect break after break because their man defense is incredible. With more than a hundred guys coming out in Fall, Wisconsin seems to groom their most athletic recruits into great defenders. This is not surprising considering the fact that in 2006 they lost to a team that was more conditioned, Florida. I would bet dollars to pesos that the Hodgas went back to the gym that summer with the sole purpose of being the most physically fit team in the country. Fast forward 2 years and you have a 25 man roster that plays better D than any other team in the country. Think about it, if you make an opponents cutters run and run and run while replacing great defender with great defender, their O-line will wear out, mistakes will happen, layout Ds, hand blocks, and throw aways will ensue and Wisconsin's D-line will collect break after break. This game plan is all well and good for college ultimate but it seems as if Wisconsin's only potential weakness are teams with finely tuned offensive strategies. Take the Arizona TiV final for example. Double helix scoobers, bladey hucks, more or less throws that are impossible to defend, gave Arizona a chance in that game. That and just don't throw to a guy that is covered because a Wisconsin defender at 100% is pretty much better than any cutter at 75-80%. It also appears that Wisconsin's favorite game plan is more or less a huck and D up approach. They pull, they generate a D, then Muffin picks up and a flick huck is coming. Wisconsin is fast and tall and they come down with just about everything. If Mahowald, Lokke, or Hohenstein don't get it, expect the D-line to get another D. If the D-line gets scored on, bring on the O-face for crisp offense. In any event, the only way that teams stand a chance against Wisconsin is to not turn it over. The UBC game went 14-13 and the only reason the Thunderbirds did so well was because they didn't cough up the disc. They took half 8-7, and only committed 1 turn over in the second half. Sadly, that was all the Hodags needed. However, in the Finals, Wisconsin's D-line committed upwards of a dozen turnovers, but Stanford just couldn't capitalize. Exhaustion probably played a role, but in any event, focus and precession in the face of extremely tough D seems to be the only workable strategy against the baby blue. I think this is why Florida has been a team that has done so well against them. Gibson, Brodie, Cyle and Windham run a very dynamic offense and are extremely hard to cover completely. They have the ability to put up break hucks, they rely on fluid disc movement to score, and they are devastatingly patient. Complex club-like offenses are tough to defend if run well (which is really hard) but making things tough on the D-line is the only way the Hodags are gonna go down. Then again, I haven't even mentioned how good the O-face is. I think they had 2 TOs in the finals.

And another thing, if anyone is curious to know why/how Wisconsin is so good, check out their blog/website. These guys care more about Hodag ultimate than anything else in the world. While it is true that this devotion may have most people scratching their heads, it is no wonder why this team is so dominant. If you want to win at football or soccer or basketball or water polo you have to eat, sleep, and live your sport. Ultimate is no different and everybody on the Hodags bleeds baby blue, no question about it. So if you are reading this and wondering how Wisconsin is so much better than your team, read some of their literature and see where your average player's dedication compares to theirs.

Stanford

This team is very good. Maybe not as good they were last year, but they are good. Santa Barbara Invite seemed like quite the anomaly and the only good thing to come out of it was the fact that UCSD's performance put them in Centex. With a prepared and full roster, Stanford is top shelf. I didn't expect them to beat Carleton but making the finals came as no surprise to me. They definitely rely on Sherwood though. He played all but 4 points in the finals and he played 13 of the first 15. I see this to be their biggest weakness. With an obvious go to player like this, developing a game plan gets easy. If you can effectively take away Sherwood's best option, either as a cutter, defender, or handler, you effectively take away Stanford's best option. Look for them to improve however. Their Centex results will give us an idea if making Nationals is even a question mark and the Series will let us know whether or not we can expect another semis appearance.

Texas

I was really impressed with Texas' results. Yes, people like me rely on legacy and history but only because it's the only evidence a sports writer has to rely on and taking a chance on a team that has never dominated is risky. I am sure they are getting tired of losing to Stanford (semis yesterday and quarters at Nationals) but losses like this give them the lessons they need to improve. The biggest challenge for Texas (both in club and college) is that there is no regional competition. Texas does not routinely play difficult teams in their area. They get their shot at Centex, maybe Vegas if they go. Mardi Gras is a little early in the season, but when the Central, Northwest, Southwest, and AC regions are all duking it out for that bid to nationals, Texas is steam rolling their way through the series. Maybe they make nationals every year, but a simple quarters exit is as far as they get. This is a huge tournament experience for them and a few more like this and they could break into semis.

UBC

I should probably do some field reporting on this team. I know nothing about them. If I had to guess, judging from their roster, it seems like the collection of freshman and sophmores that were under the guidance of Oscar and Morgan are now leading the charge. Like Arizona, the Thunderbirds have several (10) Grad students/5th years. However, teams like this can easily fall below radar over time. Hopefully they continue to recruit. The big question on my mind is where they stack up against Stanford. It seems like after a few tournaments, Stanford has reasserted itself as the team to beat in the NW (again). Cal, Santa Cruz, Oregon, Whitman, and LPC have all shown signs of greatness but Bloodthirsty and UBC were the only two that really looked like they belonged at the top of the region this weekend. Historically, in the series, Stanford has UBC's number, but perhaps with a veteran team and no clear superstar(s) to isolate, UBC may have what it takes to make a sophmore trip to nationals.

UNC-Wilmington

The rock in the NUMP's shoe. This is a team that no one has figured out and maybe thats their strategy. They are signed up for a TON of tournaments so they will know their strengths and weaknesses come the series. I wonder if their major strength is non-regional match-ups because very few west coast or even midwest teams have even played UNC-W recently. If this is a strength than perhaps everyone in the AC knows how to handle the Seamen and despite their success, will still struggle to make it out of the region. I am curious about this team regardless and I will definitely work to catch a few of their points in Austin.

Arizona

First things first, everybody's favorite new Pirate, Joe Kershner, didn't play a point this weekend because of a sprained ankle. Sunburn's performance in his absence shows 2 things: 1) They can make nationals without their best player and 2) Wow, with their best player? They handled Tide easily without Joe and I would guess that Colorado would be a closer game but the veteran desert squad will still win without their best player. An offense like this is why Arizona did so well against Wisconsin. Lots of able players, with lots of good eyes, throws and legs. I thought Carleton was the only team that could contest Wisconsin, but I think Arizona has a chance as well. Hopefully they meet again at Centex.

Claremont

These guys have gotten so good and people need to take notice. True they are kinda weird, at least they were when I used to play against them, but they are still good. They win the qualifier and finish ahead of at least 12 other teams. Am I the only one that thinks they should have gotten an invite? I suppose it's tough offering another SoCal team a bid but I think UCSD is going to have to sit out on Stanford again. It did us good back in 2005 and I think right now, the squids aren't cutting the mustard. The brain eaters are though. Despite being from a miniscule school and facing mountains of sectional and regional competition, Claremont has really shown themselves to be a resilient program. Good luck making nationals. This maybe the one year you can catch Colorado napping, giving you two chances to get to nationals instead of one.

Las Positas

Despite a history of shady roster issues, LPC is legit in 2008, both on the field and on paper. Eligibility status aside, they are basically a club team meaning their offense is razor sharp and as long as they stay in shape, they can handle good/great college teams. Hopefully they get to play at Div 1 nationals again instead of Div 3.

Carleton

CUT came in as the 2nd seed and that was a spot they deserved. They are probably going to lose their #2 spot in the NUMP but I think one reason why they struggled this weekend was because 3 of their players (Grant Lindsley, Patrick Roberts, and Alex Evangelides) were all in Seattle trying out for the Junior Worlds. While these are basically just 3 freshman, Grant and Patrick were Junior all-stars from Paidea and Amherst and see a ton of playing time. I think it's weird that Grant is trying out for Junior Worlds again, he already has a gold medal.

Colorado

MB is falling like a shit from heaven (to borrow from "Thank you for Smoking"). I took a guess that LPC would beat them but I was still surprised when it happened. I am curious to know what the Texas game did to Colorado before hand. I suppose every giant needs to faulter and I have no pity for Colorado. I think they are an exciting team to watch but they have won the SW region every year I have played ultimate. I hope they get smoked this Spring, it will have 2 consequences: 1) Someone else will get to go to the show 2) it will give Colorado the motivation to recruit and improve. I think their biggest weakness, and this is no secret, is their handling core. Right now Jolian has to throw to Mac and that sucks. Martin will hopefully be back by Centex, but even then, you have 3 6+ footers that are fast and can jump but those seemingly endless handlers circa Parker, JV, Chicken, and Rabbit are all gone. The apex of Colorado's offense is MIA and without a confident handler to carry the torch, they are going to struggle.

Closing Thoughts

There are a lot more things I could say but I would rather not. One thing I keep wondering is how exciting this year in ultimate would be if Wisconsin was non-existent. Their is no clear cut 2nd best team, so instead of an unknown national champ, we just have an unknown Finals Runner-Up. Like I said awhile back, whoever wins Stanford Invite is going to win Nationals and that still stands. I think Wisconsin will take Centex as well but they don't have to. I know that they are focusing on not letting the hype get to them and for all intents and purposes they are doing a fine job, albeit with 2 close calls. I think the only thing that will make this murderous rampage worth watching is if they actually do go undefeated. I think the worst case scenario would be if they lost a game between now and nationals but won nationals. I hope they win every game up until sunday at Nationals and either bring home the golden disc after an unscathed season or return home broken hearted with their Patriots 2007-esk season fully documented on their website.

Oh and one more thing. How exciting was this 20 team tournament format. Come on, who would have picked the teams in semis? In quarters? Only 1 team went 4-0 on saturday and only 2 teams went 0-4 in pool play. Anybody want to see these kinds of results at nationals? I know I do.

just my thoughts

match diesel

Stanford Invite Preview

This weekend marks, what I believe to be, the biggest tournament of the year and the third installment of the NCUS excitement, the Stanford Invite. True, Centex is by far the hardest tournament, but it is too hard. The format at Centex is not representative of Nationals and while Stanford isn't exactly parallel, it is closer and has more or less the same crop of teams (minus Florida and Georgia). With that in mind I thought I would give a run down of what I think will go down in Palo Alto this weekend.

Weather

Lets start with mother nature. According to weather.com, this weekend should be nice in the bay area, at least Saturday. Some showers Sunday but nothing catastrophic. Overcast, mid 60s, sounds like perfect ultimate weather to me. I only start with weather because it has been a major factor in years past and it looks to be a non-entity in 2008.

Pool A - 1) Wisconsin 2) UNC 3) UCSC 4) Whitman 5) UCF

Hodags 4-0: Sorry, Wisconsin is going to be ready and they will sweep. Their first game could be their closest. The boys from Whitman had a great TiV, and their Juniors talent will get the opportunity to show that they are either the real deal, or yet another card in a deck of flare up teams. I am most interested in the Central Florida game. The Dogs of War are a team that I like a lot, mainly because they put together good media on you tube. They are a solid AC team, but they are lucky to make SI and deserve the 5 seed. I would really like it if they brought their A game against Wisconsin, meaning just play not scared (and that goes for everyone the Hodags play). Take a lesson from Arizona, play your game, not theirs. Stay focused on scoring and taking advantage of Wisconsin mis-ques. They will be lucky to get 8 however. Third round is against UCSC. This is a really favorable match-up for Wisconsin. It seems like Santa Cruz is a lot like my alma matter, they have the ability to be good, but sometimes their heads get in the way of their success. Again, I hope they can stay focused against really intense defense and improve on the 7-13 routing they got in Vegas. The 1-2 game will be nice but it could be the same as pool play at Nationals last year where Wisconsin won 15-6. I believe people (including myself) think UNC is better than they actually are. NC State took them out twice definitively and were easily the best team at Queen City.

Darkside 3-1: They are the 2nd seed and if they are going to stay that way, their first game is the most important game of the day. I have no idea what Whitman is capable of, but I will say that UNC has been here before. They have done well at Stanford in the past but Whitman has nothing to lose, a favorable position for any ultimate team. I will go with UNC because I think Whitman doesn't have enough weapons. They did well while under the radar but now folks are going to be gunning for them. I think they have the ability to do well, but they are going to have to rely on something else besides Jeremy Norden's hucks. They then face the Slugs. I think Santa Cruz has yet to prove themselves. A double game point win over UCSD on a rookie mistake made all the difference in the world at TiV and I don't know if they have what it takes to win big games against squads outside their region. UNC is a team they haven't faced much and they will have to rely on their abilities, not the mental state of their opponent. Third game will be against a regional foe in UCF, but I think UNC will handle the DOW. They are experienced and I think UCF will have their hands full against the best competition they have ever seen in a pool play situation. I think this game will give us the first inclination of what UNC will have at regionals. A 15-10 win or better is good for UNC but if UCF takes them to 15-13 or any sort of cap situation, I think UNC is gonna be sitting out come Nationals.

Whitman 1-3: I am sorry, but I don't know if Whitman has the composure to put together another great campaign. They had a great Vegas, but duplicating those results is going to be really hard. I see them giving Wisconsin a game (which will get Wisconsin angry and focused) but their depth and inexperience will hurt them as the day wears on. They are set to face Santa Cruz after UNC and Wisconsin and if they are the real deal, they will win this game. In essence, this it the only game that matters for them in pool play. No one expects them to beat Wisconsin and against an out of region team (UNC) no one will fault them if they come up short. However, if they want to break into the good ol boys club known as the NW, they better be able to take it to a regional bubble team. The outcome of this game will really affect the last round. If they take UCSC close (win or lose) they are in deep shit against UCF. UCF likes the deep game and they are good in the air. Whitman, regardless of record, will be gassed come game 4 and hopefully they have enough energy after their bye to show that they belong. Hopefully they won't be focusing on an 0-3 record during their time off, because that will only scare a young and inexperienced team.

Santa Cruz 2-2: I see Santa Cruz gaining some confidence early against UCF. Both teams have a lot of regional competition but I think Santa Cruz is closer to the top of the NW than UCF is to the AC. UCSC is also playing more or less at home and will want to start the tourney off well. I think this is UCF's first trip to SI and I think jitters will play a big part in their performance, at least early. I think their other win will come against Whitman, but they could just as easily go to seed 1-3 and Whitman 2-2. I think a lot of people are interested to see what the Walla Walla boys put together.

Central Florida 0-4: This is their first trip to THE INVITE and I think it will be more of a learning experience than anything else. Despite a rough day, they will learn where they are vulnerable and if they are going to have a chance in the AC, tough lessons like this are a must. Good luck against UNC, if you only bring it once on Saturday, do it against a team you know you'll see again.

Pool B - 1) Carleton 2) Stanford 3) California 4/5) UCSD/UNC-W

CUT 4-0: Carleton has looked razor sharp and aside from Wisconsin, it seems that they can handle anyone. They had a loss to EGO at TiV but 9-11 is not a score I would hang my hat on. They are a unanimous #2 in the NUMP and for good reason. If they are going to lose their top seed status, it will be in their first game however. I have a tough time staying objective about Stanford, but Bloodthirsty this weekend will be significantly better than Santa Barbara. They are at home and they never disappoint at SI. I think their low seed really helps them out and their experience will be a nice match up against CUT's youth/talent. They play UNC-W second and considering that the Seaman haven't really been dominant since Warm Up, I doubt we are gonna see any fireworks. Third game is against UCSD and I am curious to know how my squidies do. They have done well against CUT in the past and they went 9-12 at TiV. I think CUT is wayyy to deep for UCSD to handle though and this late in the day, I think they will dominate in the first half and play their younger guys late in the game for a non-representative 15-11ish score. The 1-2, as the seedings indicate, will be the 2nd worst/3rd best 1-2 game. The difference between CUT and UGMO is huge and the score will show that. I think Cal has depth, which they'll need, but I don't know if their defense can handle endless lines of small, fast, razor sharp flatballers.

UGMO 2-2: If I were on Cal, I would be reluctant to have a 2nd seed. What makes this weird is that I think their first game is against UCSD because the Cal/Stanford game is the showcase game at 7p. Their one and only game against the Squids was a 9-13 loss in Santa Barbara. I think these two teams are very similar in the sense that they can both be great but both be not. I think UGMO has a greater probability of coming out ready, but I have been surprised by my undergrad buddies before. Depending on how this game goes, it really will set the tone for the rest of the day. With a win they will have the confidence to play UNC-W to their ability. With a loss, who knows? UGMO will feel like they deserve the 2 seed if they take out UCSD and I think they will. However, a non-regional match up favors UNC-W because they have nothing to lose. I don't think the Seaman win this game, but they will have played UCSD and depending on that game outcome and how they come out after a bye, they could have the intensity to give Cal a game.

Stanford 3-1: Round 2 will be the best game of the day (except for maybe Santa Barbara/Arizona). Before the season started Stanford and CUT would have both been 1 seeds and this could theoretically have been a semis game. Instead, Stanford sucked at SB and hasn't played another college team since. If I were in Palo Alto, I would stake out a spot for this game early. I see two possibilities, Stanford comes out hard and gives them a great game, very similar to the last round of pool play at Nationals. However, with that game in mind, I think a second possibility is more likely. CUT hates Stanford right now. They lost to them on double game point the last time they played and are ready for THIS game. If they lose every other game at this tournament but win this one, SI will have been worth the trip. I think Stanford's program is great but they have lost soo much talent. Sherwood is one of the best in the country but he is going to have to really have a game (which he probably will, I just wonder if it will be enough). This Stanford team is as close to a non-faceless army as I have seen since I have been watching them, with Sherwood being a front runner for a Callahan nominee. However, Tom James, Schlag, and Ezra are great role players, not to mention youngin after youngin who are going to get Ds, and NOT drop the disc. CUT is ready though and they'll win. If they go up big early they may keep the pedal to the metal, and I hope they do, because Stanford has a way of creeping back. However, they will have to remember that there are 4 pool play games but considering that this will be each team's first contest, it will be the game to watch Saturday. After a game that could be a semis game at Centex or Nationals, Stanford will play the Carleton role against UCSD in round 3. They lost to the squids at Santa Barbara and I am sure they took offense to that. It was the first time UCSD beat Bloodthirsty and I don't see a repeat performance. Stanford will want to win this game big and their depth and focus will hurt UCSD's inexperience and top heavy roster. They may trade at 2's and 3's, maybe even 4's, but I think Stanford will take half 8-5ish, come out hard in the second half and then rest their exhausted starters for a 15-10 win. After a much needed bye they will face UNC-W. I think UNC-W will come into this game 0-3, maybe 1-2. Stanford will be 1-1 and will be ready to take it to the Carolina boys. Carolina teams are notorious for being hot heads and Stanford is anything but non-composed. This favors Bloodthirsty a lot and they will have what it takes to win.

The showcase game will be very good, mainly for Stanford. This is an arena they are very comfortable with and I think Cal will have the shakes. I think the best on Cal are more or less role players which isn't good. I think Cal's offense will have to be able to play D because D is what Stanford does best. After a sick layout D, will UGMO's O-line be able to prevent the break? Mike Payne will have the boys in red and white ready, and if Cal is going to win they are going to have to do it in the air. Stanford is little and Cal has enough height to get a favorable mismatch after Sherwood and Ezra take out deep threats #1 and #2. If Cal can mix it up, they have a chance, but that is what Stanford does best. Stanford isn't a faceless army anymore but they want to remain on top of the Bay Area section and the NW region and I think they bring it under the lights.

UCSD 1-3/0-4: I am not sure what the Air Squids will do this weekend. They have talent but not depth. I think the 4-5 game will be good, not unlike everyother 4-5 game and considering it is game #1, it is put up or shut up. UCSD hasn't won a game at Stanford since 2006, where they won their pool, and will want to win this game. It will be each team's chance to win their one and only for the day, and I think star power will play the biggest role. Considering that it is game #1, I think the lines will be loaded, which can/will hurt them in subsequent rounds, but this is a game neither team wants to lose. I don't know what will happen, but I have loyalties and I hope my Squids earn the W.

UNC-W 1-3/0-4: The Seaman are one of many rocks in the NUMP's shoes. They did well at Warm Up, not so well at Queen City, and then they won a small Pres Day tournament in NC. They are a question mark in most circles and this is their chance to turn heads. They have their spot secured at Centex and hopefully they play like it. I wish I had insightful commentary, but all I can say is that the 4-5 game in this pool is a total toss up. If UNC-W wins strong, they may have a chance at Cal and that will make an already great year all that much more exciting.

Pool C - 1/2) Oregon/Colorado 3/4)Texas/LPC 5) Brown

I never thought I would see the day where Colorado would not only be at Stanford but they would be seeded behind Santa Barbara, Arizona and Texas. First and foremost, this pool is a complete crap shoot and I will try and keep my justifications short, because they are anything but set in stone. This is also definitely a pool where you may see a 1 seed with a loss and a 5 seed with a win.

Texas 2-2: I first want to say that I have no idea what Texas is capable of. Yes they won what is left of Pres Day (with a loss) but they weren't spectacular at Mardi Gras and I don't think they deserve a 1 seed. However, they don't have the blemishes to deny them a 1 seed so they have enough rope to hang themselves. First game is against Colorado and I think they will have their hands full. One advantage that Colorado always has is that every team is somewhat afraid/intimidated by them, how can they not be? With that said, I think Texas will try really hard to not lose, as opposed to trying to win. The game that I think people should remember, as far as Colorado goes, is their game against Carleton at TiV. Yes they lost but they also went down 9-11, which to me isn't much of a score. If that Colorado team comes to Stanford, and I think they will, they will have a chance. Weather will help Mamabird, but depth favors the YEE-HA boys. Texas will produce line after line of 6+ footers and with Mac Taylor and Jolian on #1 and #2, there may be mismatches elsewhere on the field. Another thing to remember is that with College Ultimate the crisper offense usually wins. Grip and rip won't work in good weather because the smarter team will capitalize and gain breaks here and there leaving the other team no time to come back. Colorado has a game plan that they have been using for a decade and it has gotten them 3 finals appearances and 1 national title. Texas has yet to get past quarters. With that being said I think Colorado has the advantage in this first game, but it will not be the last we hear from Texas. Their second game is against Brown and I think they'll cruise. This is the first time Brown has suited up this year and I don't know what they'll do without Colin Mahoney against a tough team. This will be Texas' time to get back at Brown after getting pwned 15-8 in pool play back in 2005 circa Josh Zipperstein. I am not sure about LPC. I remember beating them when they had Robot back when I captained Squid Lite back in 2004. Now they have really made a name for themselves winning Div 3 nationals in 2006 and making SI. However, I don't see them beating Texas, a team with depth and experience. The 1-2 game will be good, but I think Oregon has got the advantage. They are composed and all they have to do is stay within themselves. Texas is going to have to play a game they never have before and I don't see it happening against Stout, Becker, Janin, and the rest of Ego.

Oregon 3-1: It seems like either Ego or Colorado should be the 1 seed but they have blemishes. The day starts off red hot against Colorado and I think Colorado wins this one. Colorado has done a lot of thinking over the last month and I think they can come out early and win. Maybe they don't have the legs to carry them through Sunday but I think Oregon will have their hands full with their offense. After a close loss, I think they keep it together and win the rest of their games. LPC is experienced but athletically and talent-wise, I don't see them lining up against a storied NW power house and national contender. After a bye they should be able to handle Brown because like Brown they have smart players on offense but I think their depth and defense will get them the breaks they need to win. Last game will be the 1-2 and I think Texas chokes, sorry guys. They have a tourney win under their belt but they weren't at Vegas and I think the tempo of the game will favor Oregon.

Colorado 3-1: I think Colorado is angry. They know they should be better than this and like I said, I think they come out early against Oregon. After taking out Texas in a long game, I think we will see the upset of the tournament, LPC over Colorado. People like to read about upsets and this is mine. I think Colorado will look past LPC at a familiar foe in Brown and with nothing to lose LPC will take chances on offense and take advantage of a lack of focus on Mamabird's part. After getting shocked, Colorado is pissed and takes it out on Brown. I think after their 2005 loss in the finals, Colorado always likes sticking it to the NE boys. They go back to the hotel 3-1 and depending on differential, they may be back at 8am or 9:45am.

LPC 2-2: I think LPC fights everyone tooth and nail. They have experienced players that no one knows about and I think they will frustrate teams like Colorado. I think they come out fast and hard against a conservative dump swing Brown team and get excited early. I think Oregon takes them out easily and they rest their best in preparation for THE upset of Saturday against Colorado. After leaving it all on the field against Mamabird, Texas' depth runs up and down on them but they get a last round bye and start the drinking early.

Brown 0-4: I think Brown is happy to make Stanford but they are going to have to do well to be here in 2009. Without Mahoney, they will need everything out of Mike Vandenburg who does have A TON of experience. However, I think top to bottom, they have talent gaps that will have them struggling and their 3-7 will get walked all over. I see them getting close to LPC, but thats as close as it gets to a win on Saturday.

Pool D - 1) Arizona 2) UCSB 3/4) UBC/Claremont 5) Pitt

Black Tide 3-1: I don't think Tide deserves to be #3 in the country but that doesn't mean they don't deserve to be a 1 seed. I think they will take out Pitt easily because they have composure and Pitt's two crowning achievements this year are two close losses, Georgia 12-13 and NC State 10-12, both at Queen City Tune Up. Their next game will be against Claremont, a team that is close to beating Tide come series time, but a team that hates them. I can see Claremont getting frustrated in a rivalry game with NOTHING at stake. Tide will take advantage of mis-ques and earn the breaks they need. They will then face UBC who is definitely better than I thought they would be after losing Oscar and Morgan. I don't see them taking out a deep Tide team, but they will get points and make Tide play longer than they want. The last game of the day will be against Arizona and I think Sunburn takes Tide out. I think Arizona, like Tide, can play well under pressure but they have better personnel and synergy. Their performance at TiV shows that with pressure comes focus and if they are healthy, they can take it to the best. I think Arizona shows again that they are the team to beat in the Southwest and takes the pool in the best 1-2 game of the day.

Arizona 4-0: I think Arizona will do very well this Saturday. They only lost 2 games at Pres Day and I think that has to do with the fact that they were playing in their 3rd tournament in a row. Fools Fest happened before TiV and before they could get past the soreness, they traveled to San Diego and played 11 games and won 9. When healthy, I think they can handle a lot. Pitt and UBC will not present much of a challenge because Arizona's synergy will be more than these teams can handle. After a bye, they will face Claremont, who will be coming off a frustrating loss to Santa Barbara. Sunburn will capitalize and by this point have worked out all the necessary kinks to be ready for Tide. I see them going up 1 or 2 breaks early and going point for point in a game that will be watched by many. They will have as much support in Palo Alto as they had in Vegas, because everyone will want them to win. Hopefully it pans out.

UBC 2-2/1-3: UBC is a tough one. The only game that really matters is the first one against Claremont and it is the one game I am not sure about. I think they lose to Arizona and Tide, but take out Pitt peripheral to this game. I wish I knew more about them.

Claremont 2-2/1-3: The Brain Eaters are good and they don't get enough attention. They have won the qualifier before and this is their second time clawing their way into SI. They are ripe for some surprise wins and I think Pitt and UBC are on the chopping block. They face the Thunderbirds first and I really want to know what happens here. If Claremont is going to make semis at Regionals, this will be a stepping stone. Teams that are trying to break into Nationals must always show what they can do to non-regional opponents first. If they can take out a solid NW team, they will be looking good come spring. Either way however, I see them taking out Pitt and earning at least 1 solid win on the first day of competition.

Pitt 0-4: Pitt is a good team at ME regionals and I feel like thats about it. Yes they made semis at Queen City, but they lost and they played Georgia to double game point, but they lost to them as well. I think there are still a ton of questions associated with non-regional opponents when it comes to Pitt and until they record a win like Delaware did against Florida, the ultimate community will still question their ability at tournaments at this level. I will say that they do have a ton of young talent with Sophmores like Eddie Peters and Chris Brenenborg who both play for Pike. The team also has a lot of nationals experience, but their pool is filled with teams that are close to nationals and only don't make nationals because the teams ahead of them are making semis come Memorial Day. Good luck to you guys. I am more than happy to eat my words.

Closing thoughts

I think most people want a CUT/Wisconsin final and I think on paper, Wisconsin will win again. However, I am hoping for upsets and I will leave my bracket write up till after the tournament. Enjoy boys, I wish I were there. Florida, Georgia, take notes.

just my thoughts

match diesel